The NFL playoffs are in full swing, and this weekend’s games bring plenty of opportunities to cash out. We’ve analyzed the numbers, looked at the trends, and found the best spots to take advantage of. From the Commanders’ chances to cover against the Eagles to key player props and a high-stakes showdown between the Bills and Chiefs, there’s solid value across the board. With insights from ATSwins and a deep dive into recent performances, these picks are based on more than just a gut feeling.
NFL Picks for Jan. 26th
Commanders +6 vs. Eagles
The Washington Commanders have been turning heads and dropping jaws all season, largely due to Jayden Daniels. His connection with Terry “Scary” McLaurin has been like no other, making defenses look like they’re chasing ghosts. Daniels has been showing off his dual threat capabilities that has kept every team on their toes and has led the commanders to significant victories. On the other hand, the Philadelphia Eagles have been crushing this season with a 14-3 record but every once in a while have shown vulnerabilities in their defense, especially against mobile quarterbacks. Given the Commanders recent form, a 6-point spread seems generous. After deep diving all stats on ATSwins and crunching the numbers, I expect this game to be a battle, with the Commanders having a solid chance to cover, if not win outright.
Commanders vs. Eagles Under 47
Historically, the Eagles’ home playoff games have trended towards lower scores, with a 4-15 Over/Under record since 2000. Also, matchups between these two teams have tended to be pretty low scoring, especially when there’s a lot on the line and pressure is high. Both teams have strong defenses, with the Eagles’ total defense being ranked #1 and Commanders’ at #3 for pass defense. Given the playoff atmosphere, it’s likely that both teams will use a more conservative game plan, focusing on ball control and minimizing turnovers. Play styles like that typically result in less scoring opportunities. Taking into account these factors, the under 47 points is a strong pick.
Austin Ekeler Over 19 Rushing Yards
Austin Ekeler has been a consistent performer for the Commanders, often utilized in various offensive schemes. Given the Eagles’ defensive focus on limiting big plays through the air, the Commanders may lean on their ground game to exploit potential gaps. Ekeler hit this number 8 times in the regular season and twice in the postseason. Ekeler’s adaptability to the run and ability to find openings makes taking the over 19 rush yards an easy pick.
Bills vs. Chiefs -1.5
The Kansas City Chiefs have been doing what they do best—winning games and making life miserable for opposing defenses. Patrick Mahomes continues to be a magician, turning broken plays into highlight reels, and while the wide receiver corps has had its issues, Xavier Worthy has stepped up as a reliable target. Tight end Travis Kelce remains a security blanket, especially in critical moments, and the Chiefs’ defense has quietly been one of the best in the league this season. Of course you can never forget about Hopkins or Brown both capable of making crucial catches in clutch time. On the other side, the Buffalo Bills have looked dangerous at times, but their secondary has been shaky, and they’ve struggled to close out tight games. Also, playing at Arrowhead is never easy, especially with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Patrick Mahomes thrives in these moments and shows he can get it done when KC needs to pull out a win. Given the small spread, backing Kansas City at -1.5 feels like the right call.
Bills vs. Chiefs Over 48
Both the Bills and Chiefs have explosive offenses capable of putting up points quickly. The Chiefs’ progressive passing game, combined with Josh Allen’s running and throwing capability, sets the stage for a high scoring battle. Looking at their previous matchup on ATSwins, we’ve seen a brawl, with both teams trading blows and lighting up the scoreboard going over 48 points. Defensively, both teams have had their share of struggles, particularly against the pass, which further bolsters the case for a shootout. With the stakes this high, I anticipate both teams pulling out all the stops, leading to a game that easily surpasses the 48 point total.
Travis Kelce Under 69.5 Receiving Yards
While Travis Kelce is undeniably one of the premier tight ends in the league, the Bills have historically done a commendable job containing him. In their last meeting, Buffalo’s defense limited Kelce to just 8 yards. Additionally, Kelce fell under this number 11 times in the regular season. With the rise of other offensive weapons for the Chiefs, Mahomes may spread the ball around more, potentially limiting Kelce’s targets. Given these factors, betting on Kelce to fall short of 69.5 receiving yards offers a high chance of cashing.
This time of year, every edge matters—whether it’s a key matchup, a trend that’s flying under the radar, or a player prop that’s set too low. The numbers tell a story, and this week, there’s plenty of value to take advantage of. As always, it’s about making smart plays, not just picking winners. Trust the research, stick to the game plan, and let’s lock in and cash some tickets.
