Date: Sunday, October 13, 2024
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Arena: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
The National League Championship Series kicks off with a bang as the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers square off in Game 1 at Dodger Stadium. This matchup features two of baseball’s biggest markets and brightest stars, with Francisco Lindor leading the charge for the Mets against Shohei Ohtani and the powerhouse Dodgers.
Sunday’s series opener pits Kodai Senga against Jack Flaherty in an intriguing pitching duel. Senga’s return from injury adds an element of intrigue, while Flaherty looks to bounce back from a shaky NLDS outing. Let’s dive into the key factors that could decide this crucial Game 1.
Current Form
The Mets enter the NLCS riding high after dispatching the Brewers and Phillies in earlier rounds. Francisco Lindor has been the catalyst, hitting .320 with a .956 OPS over the final 44 games of the regular season to propel New York into the playoffs. His grand slam in the NLDS clincher showcased his clutch gene.
Los Angeles cruised to the best record in baseball behind Ohtani’s historic 54 HR/59 SB campaign. However, they faced adversity in October, needing to overcome a 2-1 series deficit against San Diego in the NLDS. Their bullpen stepped up huge, tossing 24 scoreless innings to close out that series.
Key Statistics
- Mets: 5-2 record this postseason
- Dodgers: MLB-best regular season record
- Lindor: .320 AVG, .956 OPS in final 44 games
- Ohtani: 54 HR, 59 SB in regular season
- Dodgers bullpen: 24 consecutive scoreless innings
Injury Report
Mets:
- Jeff McNeil (wrist) nearing return
- Kodai Senga (calf/triceps) making just 2nd start of season
Dodgers:
- Alex Vesia (intercostal) likely out for NLCS
- Multiple starting pitchers are still sidelined
The Case for Over 8 Runs
Our analysis of five top MLB prediction models points to a high-scoring affair in Game 1:
- BetQL: 4.8 Dodgers, 3.6 Mets (8.4 total)
- ESPN Prediction Model: 5.1 Dodgers, 3.8 Mets (8.9 total)
- SportsLine: 4.9 Dodgers, 3.7 Mets (8.6 total)
- FiveThirtyEight: 5.0 Dodgers, 3.9 Mets (8.9 total)
- Action Network PRO: 4.7 Dodgers, 3.5 Mets (8.2 total)
The average projection across these models is 8.6 total runs, leaning towards the over. Several factors support this:
- Senga’s limited workload: He’s thrown just 15 pitches in a rehab start since late July.
- Flaherty’s recent struggles: 4 runs allowed in 5.1 innings during the NLDS.
- Potent offenses: Both lineups feature multiple All-Stars and MVP candidates.
- Bullpen fatigue: The Dodgers’ relievers may be taxed after their NLDS heroics.
Pythagorean Theorem Analysis
Using the Pythagorean theorem to predict win percentage based on runs scored and allowed:
- Mets: .565 expected win% (92-70 projected record)
- Dodgers: .623 expected win (101-61 projected record)
This gives Los Angeles a slight edge, but the gap isn’t insurmountable for New York.
Matchup Breakdown
Starting Pitchers:
- Senga: Limited to 2 IP in NLDS after long layoff, but electric stuff when healthy
- Flaherty: 6-2, 3.58 ERA since joining Dodgers, but struggled in NLDS
Offense:
- Mets: Lindor, Alonso provide power; Nimmo sets table
- Dodgers: Ohtani, Betts, Freeman form devastating trio
Defense:
- Mets: Solid up the middle with Lindor/Nimmo
- Dodgers: Above-average at most positions
Final Prediction
After weighing all the factors, I’m leaning towards the Dodgers taking Game 1 in a high-scoring affair. The combination of Senga’s uncertain stamina and Flaherty’s recent inconsistency points to runs being scored early. Both lineups are stacked with talent, and the bullpens may be called upon sooner than ideal.
Los Angeles’ home-field advantage and slightly superior offense give them the edge. However, don’t count out the Mets – Lindor has been on an absolute tear and could easily swing this game with one big swing.
The over 8 runs looks appealing given the pitching uncertainties and offensive firepower on both sides. While playoff games can often be lower-scoring affairs, the circumstances surrounding this matchup suggest we could see fireworks at Dodger Stadium.
Ultimately, this NLCS opener has all the makings of an instant classic. Senga’s comeback story adds intrigue, while Ohtani aims to cement his Dodger legacy on the October stage. Buckle up, baseball fans – this series is just getting started.
PICK: over 8 total runs LOSE
