The final matchup in this three-game series between the Seattle Mariners and the Chicago White Sox promises a compelling afternoon of baseball. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 PM ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago. With the series tied 1-1, both teams will look to close it out strong, but all signs point toward the Mariners having the upper hand.
Seattle comes into this game with a solid 27-20 record, while the White Sox continue to struggle, sitting at 15-34. The Mariners have had better consistency on both sides of the ball throughout the season, and despite Tuesday’s 1-0 loss, their form remains stronger.
Starting Pitchers Breakdown
Logan Evans (Seattle Mariners)
- Record: 2-1
- ERA: 4.71
- WHIP: 1.57
- Innings Pitched: 21.0
Evans is still early in his major league journey but is beginning to show signs of maturity. His most recent start saw him throw six shutout innings against the Padres, a performance that showed he can stay composed under pressure. While his ERA and WHIP appear high, his command is improving with each outing.
Shane Smith (Chicago White Sox)
- Record: 1-3
- ERA: 2.05
- WHIP: 1.14
- Innings Pitched: 48.1
Smith has been a bright spot in an otherwise underwhelming season for the White Sox. His 2.05 ERA shows he can control games effectively. However, despite his performances, run support has been an issue for Chicago, often leaving Smith with little margin for error.
Recent Team Form
The Mariners have been competitive, winning four of their last six games. Their pitching staff has held opponents to just five runs in that span, and while their offense has had quiet games like Tuesday, it has generally been more productive than Chicago’s.
On the other hand, the White Sox broke a five-game losing streak with a strong performance on Tuesday. However, they remain one of the weakest offensive teams in the league, averaging just 3.17 runs per game.
Injuries and Lineup Impacts
Seattle Mariners:
- George Kirby (Shoulder) – Expected to return May 22
- Logan Gilbert (Elbow) – Out until at least May 27
- Bryce Miller (Elbow) – Out until at least May 27
The Mariners are managing several injuries in their starting rotation. Fortunately, their bullpen has stepped up to keep games manageable. Offensively, their core players remain healthy.
Chicago White Sox:
- Andrew Benintendi (Calf) – Expected return May 30
- Mike Tauchman (Hamstring) – Expected return May 23
- Multiple pitchers are out for the season (including Drew Thorpe and Ky Bush)
These absences have weakened the White Sox both at the plate and on the mound. Their offense is missing key contributors, and the pitching staff has had to rely on younger, less experienced arms.
Weather Outlook
Game-time temperature is expected to hover around 52°F with a 36% chance of rain and winds at 10 mph. Cooler temperatures and wind could help suppress scoring, which is especially relevant for a matchup with strong pitching.
Why Seattle Has the Edge
The Mariners’ pitching depth, even with key injuries, remains superior. Their bullpen has allowed just five runs in the past six games. Evans, while young, appears to be gaining control and confidence. Their offense, though quiet on Tuesday, is still capable of producing multi-run innings.
Meanwhile, Chicago’s offensive struggles are hard to overlook. Even when their pitchers have been solid, like Smith, the lineup hasn’t been able to provide adequate support. Seattle’s balance on both sides of the ball should prove decisive.
Why Under 8 Total Runs Makes Sense
Based on current form, pitcher stats, injuries, and weather, this game leans toward a low-scoring affair. Seattle’s bullpen is red-hot, and Chicago’s offense lacks firepower. Smith’s ability to keep games close only adds to the case for fewer total runs.
Here’s a breakdown of the predicted final score using five successful and historically accurate models:
- PECOTA Model (Baseball Prospectus): Mariners 4 – White Sox 2
- Davenport Projections: Mariners 3 – White Sox 2
- ZIPS (FanGraphs): Mariners 4 – White Sox 1
- Steamer Projections: Mariners 3 – White Sox 2
- Pythagorean Expectation Model: Mariners 4 – White Sox 2
All five models support a combined score between 5 and 6 runs, far below the current line of 8. These models account for advanced metrics such as run differential, pitcher FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), and recent form.
When you combine the models’ projections with real-time stats and the injury situation, the case for a low-scoring game is very strong. The weather conditions (cool temperatures, possible rain, and moderate wind) further point toward lower offensive output.
Final Prediction and Score
Taking everything into account — current pitching matchups, injuries, team momentum, weather, and advanced model predictions — this game looks to be another low-scoring battle. Seattle has the edge due to a more reliable offense and a hot bullpen.
Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4, Chicago White Sox 2
Smart Picks for Today
- Pick Seattle Mariners to win: Their pitching depth and balanced offense give them the advantage.
- Pick under 8 total runs: All available data, trends, and predictive models point to a final score below this line.
Wrap-Up
Today’s game features two solid pitchers, shaky offenses, and cool weather — all of which lean toward a close, quiet matchup. Seattle’s momentum, bullpen form, and consistency make them the smart side to back. Expect a controlled game from Evans and limited scoring chances from the White Sox lineup.
Seattle should finish the series strong and bring home a narrow win in a game that stays well under the total runs line.
My pick: UNDER 8 total runs LOSE
