Date: Wednesday, July 3, 2024

Time: 8:10 p.m. ET

Arena: Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Baseball fans, get ready for an exciting matchup as the Kansas City Royals take on the Tampa Bay Rays in the middle game of their three-game series. With the Rays having clinched a 5-1 victory in the opener, the Royals are determined to even the series. This analysis dives deep into each team’s strengths, the starting pitchers’ stats, and why betting on under 8 total runs is a smart choice for this game. Keep reading to uncover the key insights that will guide you to the best possible prediction for this thrilling game.

Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals have had a challenging season, but they possess a dynamic player in Bobby Witt Jr. Witt’s performance has been a highlight, with his 44 extra-base hits ranking fourth in baseball. He leads the American League with 108 hits and a batting average of .311. Witt’s aggressive base running and ability to electrify the crowd make him a key player to watch.

Bobby Witt Jr.’s Impact:

Batting Average: .311
Extra-Base Hits: 44 (4th in MLB)
Triples: 9 (2nd in MLB)
Doubles: 22 (Top-10 in MLB)

Witt’s prowess at the plate and his speed on the bases are crucial for the Royals’ offense. His mentality of always thinking extra bases keeps the defense on their toes and often sparks the Royals’ rallies.

Starting Pitcher: Michael Wacha Michael Wacha, with a 4-6 record and a 3.91 ERA, will start for the Royals. Wacha has shown consistency, allowing fewer than three runs in each of his past four starts. Despite his solid performances, he has been unable to secure wins, indicating the Royals’ struggle with run support.

ERA: 3.91
Record: 4-6
Recent Performance: 0-2 in the past four starts with fewer than three runs allowed per game

Wacha’s last outing against the Rays resulted in a loss despite a commendable performance, allowing just two runs on three hits over six innings. His ability to limit the opposing team’s offense will be crucial for the Royals to stay competitive in this game.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays have been on a roll, winning nine of their past twelve games and aiming for their fifth straight series win. Manager Kevin Cash has praised Bobby Witt Jr. as a standout player, acknowledging the challenge he poses. However, the Rays have their own strengths that make them formidable opponents.

Offensive Prowess:

The Rays have a balanced lineup with multiple players contributing to their success.
They have shown resilience and the ability to capitalize on opponents’ mistakes.

Starting Pitcher: Ryan Pepiot Ryan Pepiot will take the mound for the Rays. Pepiot has a 4-4 record with a 4.40 ERA and has shown flashes of brilliance, striking out eight and allowing just one hit over 5 1/3 innings in his last start against Seattle.

ERA: 4.40
Record: 4-4
Recent Performance: Struck out eight, allowed one hit in 5 1/3 innings against Seattle

Pepiot’s ability to maintain his composure and deliver consistent performances is a significant asset for the Rays. His emotional control, as noted by manager Kevin Cash, will be key in navigating through the Royals’ lineup.

Batting Averages and Team Comparisons

Kansas City Royals:

Team Batting Average: .245
The Royals rely heavily on Bobby Witt Jr.’s offensive output. Their overall batting average suggests a need for more consistent contributions from other players.

Tampa Bay Rays:

Team Batting Average: .255
The Rays have a slightly higher team batting average, indicating a more balanced offensive attack.

Predictions from Each Model

PECOTA: 6 total runs
ZiPS: 7 total runs
Steamer: 7 total runs
Davenport: 6 total runs
Fangraphs: 8 total runs

Prediction: Under 8 Total Runs

Considering the pitching matchup and the teams’ offensive performances, betting on under 8 total runs is a well-supported choice. Here are the reasons why:

Pitchers’ Strengths:

Both Michael Wacha and Ryan Pepiot have demonstrated the ability to limit opponents’ scoring.
Wacha’s recent performances, despite not securing wins, have kept run totals low.
Pepiot’s last start showed his potential to dominate a lineup and maintain a low run count.

Offensive Trends:

The Royals have struggled with run support, which is evident in Wacha’s recent no-decisions despite his strong outings.
The Rays’ balanced lineup, while effective, has not consistently produced high-scoring games, especially against strong pitching.

Key Player Impact:

Bobby Witt Jr.’s aggressive play can create scoring opportunities, but the Royals’ reliance on him alone may not be sufficient to push the total runs above 8.
The Rays’ strategy will likely focus on neutralizing Witt’s impact and capitalizing on the Royals’ weaknesses.

Historical Data and Models:

The average prediction from top MLB models (PECOTA, ZiPS, Steamer, Davenport, Fangraphs) aligns with under 8 total runs.

Incorporating factors like key player injuries, weather conditions, and recent trends, the underbet remains consistent with the models’ outputs.

Conclusion

The Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays game on July 3, 2024, promises to be an intriguing matchup. With dynamic players like Bobby Witt Jr. and strong starting pitchers Michael Wacha and Ryan Pepiot, the game is set for a competitive showdown.

Given the analysis of both teams’ strengths, the pitchers’ statistics, and the batting averages, under 8 total runs is a well-supported and logical choice. This prediction aligns with the insights from top MLB prediction models and takes into account the various influencing factors.

Enjoy the game, and may the best team win!

PICK: under 8 total runs WIN