The St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates meet on Monday night in Busch Stadium, and on the surface, it might look like just another late-season matchup between two teams fighting to establish themselves in the National League. But if you peel back the layers, this game has everything a bettor could want: a rookie trying to solidify his place in the majors, a comeback pitcher returning from a long layoff, lineups missing big bats, and two clubs navigating transition years. Add all that up, and you don’t just have a baseball game—you’ve got a perfect recipe for a betting angle that makes too much sense to ignore.
That angle? The Under 8 total runs. Let’s walk through why this number is worth circling and why the drama of McGreevy versus Oviedo might end up playing out in a tighter, more controlled game than oddsmakers expect.
Michael McGreevy: The Rookie With Poise Beyond His Years
Every year, a franchise needs a pitcher who isn’t supposed to be “the guy” but ends up stepping forward when things go wrong. For the Cardinals, that pitcher is Michael McGreevy. At just 25, he’s been forced into the spotlight because of injuries to St. Louis’ entire wave of young arms—Tekoah Roby, Sem Robberse, Cooper Hjerpe, and even top prospect Tink Hence all spent most of 2024 on the shelf. Somebody had to grab the ball and show he could handle the pressure, and McGreevy has done exactly that.
The rookie comes into this game with a 5–2 record and a 4.26 ERA, but the numbers only tell half the story. August has been his breakout month: four starts, three quality outings, a 3.38 ERA, and an unshakable routine that suggests he’s learning how to be a big leaguer at warp speed. He doesn’t strike out the world, but he’s efficient, he trusts his defense, and most importantly for Under bettors, he works deep into games without letting things spiral out of control.
And this isn’t his first taste of Pittsburgh either. Last September, McGreevy picked up a relief win against the Pirates by throwing three shutout innings, giving up just two hits. That memory will be in his back pocket when he takes the mound tonight for his first career start against them. Confidence matters, especially for a young pitcher, and McGreevy has every reason to believe he can keep the Pirates’ bats in check.
Johan Oviedo: A Familiar Face With a New Lease on Baseball
On the other side is Johan Oviedo, a pitcher Cardinals fans know well. He broke into the majors wearing the Birds on the Bat before landing in Pittsburgh, where he quietly built himself into a rotation piece. Then came Tommy John surgery, a brutal setback that stole his 2024 season, followed by a severe lat strain that delayed his 2025 debut.
Now he’s finally back, and in his first two outings, he’s shown exactly the kind of maturity you’d expect from someone who’s been through that grind. Against Toronto last week, he limited a dangerous Blue Jays lineup to one run over six innings, earning his first win since September 2023. More importantly, he admitted afterward that his key was controlling his emotions. He stuck to the game plan, focused on each pitch, and refused to let the moment overwhelm him.
That calm, collected approach is exactly what bettors want to see from a pitcher heading into a game like this. Oviedo isn’t looking to light up the radar gun or dominate with strikeouts—he’s just looking to execute, get ground balls, and keep his team in the game. Against a Cardinals lineup missing Nolan Arenado and dealing with nagging injuries to Masyn Winn and Brendan Donovan, that strategy looks like a winner.
Offenses Missing Big Pieces
Let’s be honest: neither lineup comes into this matchup at full strength.
For St. Louis, the absence of Arenado is glaring. He’s the heart of their order, the guy who drives in runs when they need them most. Without him, the Cardinals have been leaning on younger bats and role players, and the results show. They’ve dropped eight of their last eleven games, often failing to produce in clutch situations. Masyn Winn may return tonight after nursing a knee issue, but it’s hard to expect him to immediately provide a spark. Donovan remains sidelined, further thinning the depth.
The Pirates, meanwhile, have been riding high after a four-game winning streak, punctuated by a sweep of the Rockies where they outscored Colorado 18–1. But context matters: the Rockies are among the weakest offensive teams in the league, and Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh’s most dynamic player, is still out with a concussion. Without him, their lineup lacks that explosive, game-changing threat. Their recent surge has been built more on pitching and defense than on bats mashing their way through opponents.
Why This Game Screams Low-Scoring
Here’s where it all ties together for bettors. Both starting pitchers are trending in the right direction—McGreevy finding his footing, Oviedo regaining his confidence—and both are facing lineups that simply don’t scare you right now. The Cardinals are missing too much middle-of-the-order firepower, while the Pirates are piecing together runs without their star shortstop.
Busch Stadium is no Coors Field either. It’s a neutral-to-slightly-pitcher-friendly park, and the weather tonight in St. Louis is clear and calm. No swirling winds to push fly balls into the seats, no humidity turning routine contact into doubles in the gap. Just straightforward conditions where pitchers can settle in and let the game come to them.
The bullpens add another layer to the Under appeal. Neither has been dominant, but both are serviceable enough to hold things down if the starters can get them to the sixth or seventh inning with a lead. And given the way McGreevy and Oviedo have been throwing lately, that’s a realistic expectation.
Possible Game Flow
Picture how this one plays out. McGreevy works his way through the Pirates’ order, scattering a few singles but inducing double plays when needed. Oviedo mirrors him, mixing his pitches and leaning on his defense to turn sharp grounders into easy outs. By the time the middle innings roll around, the scoreboard might read 1–0 or 2–1 either way.
Even if one team scratches across a run late, the offenses just don’t have the depth or firepower to break this open. A 3–2 final feels like the sweet spot, maybe 4–3 at the absolute ceiling. That’s comfortably under the total of 8 and fits the narrative of two pitchers with something to prove keeping the game in their control.
The Betting Case for the Under
If you’re betting this game, you have to ask yourself what’s more likely: do the Cardinals and Pirates, both missing their biggest offensive stars, really break out against two pitchers throwing confidently right now? Or do we get a tighter, low-scoring duel where every run feels like it could decide the night?
Everything points to the latter. The Cardinals’ slump at the plate, the Pirates’ reliance on pitching and defense, the neutral ballpark, the weather, and the specific matchup of a poised rookie versus a hungry comeback arm—all of it stacks up on the side of the Under.
Prediction
In the end, expect a game that’s more about execution than fireworks. McGreevy will look like a seasoned pro, Oviedo will remind his old team that he still knows how to pitch, and both lineups will scratch and claw for runs that never quite pile up. My final score prediction: Cardinals 3, Pirates 2.
That puts us squarely under the total of 8, and it does so without needing much sweat. For bettors, this is exactly the kind of spot you look for: a number that seems fair at first glance but tilts heavily one way when you dig into the details.
Final Word
This isn’t just a game between two NL Central teams in transition—it’s a chess match between youth and experience, between a pitcher learning to believe he belongs and one proving he never lost it. And as much fun as that storyline is, it makes an even better betting opportunity.
So grab your ticket, circle that Under 8, and enjoy a night where pitching takes the spotlight.
Pick: Under 8
