Basketball fans, mark your calendars. The Memphis Tigers travel to take on the Charlotte 49ers in an intriguing NCAA men’s basketball matchup. The game promises a clash of contrasting styles.
- Matchup: Memphis Tigers (13-4, 3-1 AAC) vs. Charlotte 49ers (7-11, 0-5 AAC)
- Date & Time: Sunday, January 19, 2025, at 4:00 PM ET
- Location: Dale F. Halton Arena, Charlotte, NC
- Line: Memphis -11, Over/Under 148
Can the Tigers’ high-octane offense maintain dominance, or will the 49ers find a way to stifle them at home? Let’s dive into everything you need to know about this game and why we’re leaning toward under 148 total points as the smart pick.
Memphis Tigers: Dominant but Defense-Oriented
The Memphis Tigers enter this game ranked No. 18 nationally, boasting a strong 13-4 record and an impressive start to conference play. Led by head coach Penny Hardaway, this team has built a reputation for scoring big and playing tough defense.
Recent Form
- Points Scored (Last 5 Games):
- 85 vs. Tulsa
- 81 vs. Wichita State
- 72 vs. UAB (loss)
- 75 vs. Temple
- 88 vs. East Carolina
- Key Stats:
- Points per Game: 79.3 (16th in NCAA)
- Points Allowed: 68.4
- Field Goal Percentage: 47.8%
- 3-Point Shooting: 34.1%
Players to Watch
- DeAndre Williams (Forward): The Tigers’ scoring and rebounding leader, averaging 18.3 points and 7.2 boards per game.
- Jahvon Quinerly (Guard): A versatile playmaker, contributing 13.1 points and 5.8 assists.
- David Jones (Guard): A defensive anchor and a key contributor with 11.2 points per game.
Charlotte 49ers: A Team in Transition
The Charlotte 49ers, under head coach Ron Sanchez, have struggled to find their rhythm this season. Their 7-11 record includes a tough 0-5 start in conference play. Playing at home could give them a slight edge, but they’ll need a near-perfect performance to challenge Memphis.
Recent Form
- Points Scored (Last 5 Games):
- 60 vs. SMU
- 68 vs. Tulane
- 62 vs. UAB
- 65 vs. Wichita State
- 58 vs. Temple
- Key Stats:
- Points per Game: 66.2
- Points Allowed: 71.4
- Field Goal Percentage: 42.5%
- 3-Point Shooting: 31.9%
Players to Watch
- Brice Williams (Guard): The 49ers’ primary scorer, averaging 15.2 points per game.
- Aly Khalifa (Center): A presence in the paint, adding 10.8 points and 6.1 rebounds.
- Jackson Threadgill (Guard): A three-point specialist who needs to get hot for Charlotte to keep pace.
Head-to-Head Matchup
Memphis Advantages
Memphis thrives in transition and scores efficiently in the paint. With an edge in athleticism, expect the Tigers to dominate on fast breaks and second-chance points. Defensively, Memphis excels at forcing turnovers, averaging 8.5 steals per game. Against Charlotte, who struggles with ball control, this could lead to easy points.
Charlotte’s Path to Success
Slowing down the game will be crucial. Charlotte’s best chance is to limit possessions and force Memphis into contested shots. Home-court advantage could play a minor role, but the 49ers need their role players to step up to stay competitive.
Prediction Models: Scores from Top Analysts
To support our prediction, here’s what five successful NCAA basketball prediction models project for this game:
- KenPom Model: Memphis 80, Charlotte 66 (Total: 146)
- Sagarin Ratings: Memphis 78, Charlotte 65 (Total: 143)
- Bart Torvik Model: Memphis 82, Charlotte 67 (Total: 149)
- Haslametrics: Memphis 79, Charlotte 64 (Total: 143)
- TeamRankings Model: Memphis 81, Charlotte 66 (Total: 147)
These models consistently predict a Memphis win, with total scores hovering near or below the 148-point mark.
Why the Under 148 Total Points Is the Best Choice
1. Memphis Defense Is the Key Factor
Memphis has one of the more disciplined defenses in the conference, allowing just 68.4 points per game. Against a Charlotte offense that struggles to score efficiently, the Tigers are likely to keep the 49ers well below their season average.
2. Charlotte’s Offensive Woes
The 49ers average only 66.2 points per game and have failed to surpass 70 points in their last five games. Against Memphis’s stifling defense, breaking that barrier seems unlikely.
3. Pace of Play
Charlotte will look to slow the game down, reducing possessions to prevent Memphis from imposing their will. This tactical adjustment aligns with a lower-scoring affair.
4. Historical Trends
Both teams have leaned toward the under in recent games:
- Memphis: The total has gone under in 3 of their last 5 games.
- Charlotte: The total has gone under in 4 of their last 5 games.
5. Model Projections
Four out of five models predict totals at or below 148 points. The consensus supports a tighter game than the line suggests.
Memphis Tigers are heavy favorites and should win this matchup comfortably. However, the game’s pace and Charlotte’s scoring limitations make the under 148 total points a confident and logical choice.
Memphis 79, Charlotte 65 (Total: 144)
Conclusion: Smart, Informed, and Confident
Sunday’s game offers a clear picture: Memphis is the stronger team, but the game dynamics lean toward a lower-scoring contest. Whether you’re a fan of high-flying dunks or defensive chess matches, this matchup promises excitement. With Memphis’s defensive dominance and Charlotte’s slower tempo, expect the total points to stay under 148.
Enjoy the game, and here’s to making informed decisions! 🏀
PICK: under 148 total points WIN
