The second game of the series between the Cincinnati Reds (29-29) and the Chicago Cubs (35-22) at Wrigley Field on Saturday afternoon, May 31, 2025, presents a compelling opportunity for bettors. After the Reds took the opener 6-2, the Cubs will be looking to rebound, and the pitching matchup, coupled with recent offensive trends, points strongly towards a higher-scoring affair than the seemingly modest Over/Under of 7.5. Let’s dive deep into the factors that make this a calculated and smart decision for your wager.
The Pitching Predicament: A Recipe for Runs
The mound will feature a rematch from last Sunday, with the Reds sending out left-hander Nick Lodolo (4-4, 3.39 ERA) and the Cubs employing an opener in Drew Pomeranz (2-0, 0.00 ERA over 12.2 IP in relief) before handing the ball to Ben Brown (3-3, 6.39 ERA).
Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Lodolo has had a decent season overall, with a 3.39 ERA and a respectable 1.10 WHIP over 63.2 innings. He’s managed 55 strikeouts while walking 12. However, his last outing against these very Cubs on May 25 was a bit shaky, as he allowed three runs on six hits over five innings. While he didn’t factor into the decision in that game, the Cubs showed they could get to him. Furthermore, Lodolo’s career ERA against the Cubs is 5.29 in six starts, indicating a consistent struggle against their lineup. The Cubs, despite their 6-2 loss yesterday, are leading MLB in runs scored per game at 5.8, suggesting they are very capable of putting up runs. Their team batting average is .261, ranking them among the league leaders. While Lodolo has had some quality starts, his propensity to give up runs to this particular Cubs lineup, coupled with the Cubs’ potent offense, sets the stage for early scoring.
Drew Pomeranz (Chicago Cubs Opener) & Ben Brown (Bulk Reliever): The Cubs’ decision to use an opener is a clear signal of their concern regarding Ben Brown’s struggles, particularly in the first inning. Brown has a concerning 6.39 ERA this season, and a staggering 9.90 ERA in the first inning alone. His last start against the Reds on May 25 was disastrous, as he walked the first two batters and surrendered four runs in the opening frame, ultimately giving up a career-high eight runs over 4 1/3 innings. This isn’t an isolated incident; Brown has acknowledged his inconsistency, stating, “I’m having periods of time where I’m the best pitcher I’ve ever been and then I’m having times where I’m obviously struggling.”
While Drew Pomeranz has an impressive 0.00 ERA in his relief appearances this season, he’s never started a game this year. It’s unclear how long the Cubs intend for him to go, but even a few innings will likely stress the bullpen early. Once Brown enters the game, the Reds’ offense will face a pitcher who has a history of giving up runs, especially against them. Brown’s career ERA against the Reds is a troubling 10.80 across three starts. This historical weakness, combined with his current struggles, makes him a prime target for the Reds’ bats.
Offensive Firepower and Recent Trends
Chicago Cubs’ Offense: As mentioned, the Cubs boast one of the league’s most effective offenses, leading MLB with 5.8 runs per game. They also rank highly in batting average (.261) and home runs (79, 4th overall). Key hitters like Pete Crow-Armstrong, who had two home runs and six RBIs against the Reds on May 23, and Seiya Suzuki, who is slugging .509, provide significant power. Despite facing a left-handed pitcher in Lodolo, the Cubs have several hitters who perform well against lefties. For example, Carson Kelly has a .289 AVG and .627 SLG against left-handers, while Kyle Tucker boasts a .263 AVG and .526 SLG. This suggests they won’t be entirely neutralized by Lodolo.
Cincinnati Reds’ Offense: The Reds’ offense, while not as prolific as the Cubs’, is still capable of putting up runs. They scored six runs yesterday against the Cubs’ starter and bullpen. Their team batting average is .249 and they rank 8th in runs scored with 270. They are also tied for 10th in the league with 61 home runs, showing they can generate power. Facing a struggling Ben Brown, especially one with a history of poor outings against them, should provide ample opportunities for the Reds to score. Elly De La Cruz’s speed and power are always a threat, and the Reds have shown they can get on base.
Situational Factors and Bullpen Concerns
Both bullpens will likely be heavily involved in this game. The Cubs’ decision to use an opener for Brown indicates a potential early reliance on their relief corps. While the Cubs’ bullpen overall has been a point of pride for manager Craig Counsell, as of May 28, the more innings they’re forced to pitch, the higher the chances of a breakdown. Similarly, the Reds’ bullpen has been stretched thin recently due to short starts from their own rotation. While their bullpen had a strong 3.06 ERA earlier in the season, recent games have seen them give up late runs and get extended, suggesting some fatigue or inconsistency. The more batters both offenses see from the bullpen, the greater the likelihood of runs being scored.
The Over 7.5: A Calculated and Smart Decision
Considering all these factors, the Over 7.5 for this game appears to be a highly calculated and smart betting decision.
- Ben Brown’s Struggles: His high ERA, terrible first-inning numbers, and historical struggles against the Reds scream “runs.” The Reds will be licking their chops.
- Lodolo’s Vulnerability: While a decent pitcher, Lodolo has shown he can be hit by the Cubs, especially given their league-leading offense. His career numbers against them are also a red flag.
- Offensive Firepower: Both teams possess enough offensive talent to exploit these pitching weaknesses. The Cubs lead the league in runs, and the Reds have shown they can put up crooked numbers.
- Bullpen Usage: The likelihood of both bullpens being used extensively, particularly given the opener strategy for the Cubs and the recent taxing of the Reds’ relievers, increases the chances of late-game scoring. Even good bullpens can falter under heavy workloads.
- Wrigley Field Factor: While not explicitly mentioned as a factor in the provided text, Wrigley Field is often known for its hitter-friendly conditions, especially with the wind blowing out, which can further contribute to higher scoring games.
While a final score cannot be guaranteed, the confluence of a struggling primary starter, a history of allowing runs to the opposing team, strong offensive capabilities on both sides, and potential bullpen vulnerabilities creates a strong environment for this game to exceed 7.5 total runs. Betting on the Over 7.5 is not just hoping for a high-scoring game; it’s a strategic wager based on a thorough analysis of the teams, their pitchers, and current trends.
Conclusion: Trust the Bats, Back the Over
The stage is set for an offensive display at Wrigley. With Ben Brown’s well-documented struggles, especially against the Reds, and Nick Lodolo’s historical vulnerability to the Cubs, both offenses are in a prime position to produce. Add in the likelihood of early bullpen exposure for the Cubs and a potentially tired Reds bullpen, and the conditions are ripe for runs to be scored in bunches. For bettors seeking value, the Over 7.5 offers a compelling and thoroughly analyzed opportunity. Trust the bats to dominate the day, and confidently place your wager on the Over.
Pick: Over 7.5
