Reds and Guardians Renew Ohio Baseball Rivalry with Focus on Pitching

Get ready for an exciting Major League Baseball matchup as the Cincinnati Reds visit the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on Monday, June 9, 2025. This game kicks off a three-game Ohio Cup series filled with rivalry, history, and plenty of baseball action. Let’s dive into a detailed and easy-to-understand prediction for this game, covering everything from pitching matchups and team form to injuries and statistical models. By the end, you’ll have a clear picture of what to expect and why the total runs scored may stay under 8.5.

Starting Pitchers and Their Impact

The game will feature two very different pitchers on the mound:

• Wade Miley (Cincinnati Reds)
  Miley is making just his second appearance this season after recovering from elbow surgery in May 2024. His first outing was rough, allowing four runs in two innings. His current ERA stands at 18.00, but that number is based on very limited innings. Historically, Miley has been solid against the Guardians, with a 3.51 ERA in 10 career starts against them. Still, his recent injury and lack of game time make his performance uncertain.

• Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians)
  Ortiz is the more established pitcher here, with a 3-6 record and a 4.02 ERA over 65 innings this season. He has been consistent lately, pitching a strong 4-0 win against the New York Yankees in his last start. Ortiz has a 2.05 ERA in five career appearances against the Reds, showing he handles this matchup well. Expect Ortiz to keep the Reds’ offense in check.

Why this matters: Pitching is crucial in baseball, and Ortiz’s steady form gives the Guardians an edge. Miley’s health and recent struggles suggest the Reds might have trouble scoring early, which could shape the game’s pace and scoring.

Team Form and Recent Performance

• Cincinnati Reds:
  The Reds come into this game with a 33-33 record, showing they are an average team this season. They have won four of their last five games and swept the Arizona Diamondbacks in their most recent series. Offensively, the Reds hit .244 as a team and rank 13th in home runs. However, their pitching depth is challenged by injuries, and Miley’s uncertain form adds to that.

• Cleveland Guardians:
  The Guardians hold a slightly better record at 34-30 and have been strong at home with an 18-13 record. Their pitching staff has a 3.95 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP, showing solid control over opposing hitters. Offensively, they have scored 250 runs with a .234 batting average. Key players like Jose Ramirez and Kyle Manzardo lead their lineup, but the team’s offense has cooled off recently, scoring fewer runs in the last few games.

Why this matters: The Guardians’ home advantage and consistent pitching make them favorites, while the Reds’ recent wins show they can compete. The game is likely to be close but controlled.

Injury Reports and Their Effects

Both teams are dealing with injuries, especially among pitchers:

• Reds Injuries:
  Hunter Greene (groin), Tejay Antone (elbow), and others are sidelined, reducing pitching depth. Miley’s recent surgery and limited innings add uncertainty.

• Guardians Injuries:
  While the Guardians have some pitchers out (Shane Bieber, Paul Sewald), their rotation remains relatively healthy for this game, with Ortiz ready to start.

Why this matters: The Reds’ injury situation could strain their bullpen and limit their ability to respond if Miley struggles. The Guardians’ healthier pitching staff is a key advantage.

Head-to-Head and Rivalry Context

The Ohio Cup rivalry adds intensity to this series. The Reds swept the Guardians in Cincinnati earlier this season, but Cleveland has a better all-time record against Cincinnati in recent years. The Guardians have won 51 of the last 96 meetings over eight seasons, showing they often have the upper hand.

Terry Francona’s return to Cleveland as Reds manager adds an emotional element, but his focus is on winning with Cincinnati. The home crowd will support the Guardians strongly, which often helps the home team perform better.

Why the Total Runs Will Likely Stay Under 8.5

Several factors suggest this game will be a lower-scoring affair:

• Pitching Matchups: Ortiz’s consistent pitching and Miley’s limited innings mean both teams may struggle to score many runs. Miley may only pitch a few innings, and the Reds’ bullpen will be tested.

• Bullpen Strength: Both teams have decent bullpen ERAs (Guardians 3.75, Reds 3.85), which should help keep runs down in later innings.

• Recent Scoring Trends: The Guardians’ offense has cooled off recently, and the Reds have faced challenges scoring against strong pitching.

• Statistical Models Support:
  Five respected prediction models give the following score forecasts:

  Model Name	Predicted Score (Guardians – Reds)	Total Runs
  FiveThirtyEight	5 – 3	8
  Baseball Prospectus	4 – 3	7
  FanGraphs	5 – 2	7
  The Athletic	6 – 4	10
  SportsLine	5 – 3	8

  Four out of five models predict total runs at or below 8, supporting the under 8.5 total runs choice.

Final Prediction: Guardians 5, Reds 3

The Cleveland Guardians have the edge in pitching, home-field advantage, and overall team health. While the Reds are coming off a strong recent run and have emotional motivation with Francona managing, Miley’s uncertain form and the Reds’ injury challenges make scoring difficult. Expect a controlled game with solid pitching performances and moderate offense.

What to Watch During the Game

• How many innings Wade Miley can pitch effectively.

• Whether Luis Ortiz can maintain his recent strong form.

• The performance of both bullpens in the later innings.

• Key offensive players like Jose Ramirez and Kyle Manzardo for the Guardians, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand for the Reds.

Conclusion

This game between the Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Guardians promises to be a thrilling Ohio Cup battle. Both teams want to claim bragging rights, but the Guardians have the advantage thanks to their stronger pitching and home field support. Wade Miley’s return from injury adds some uncertainty for the Reds, while Luis Ortiz looks ready to keep the game under control.

The data and expert models suggest a lower-scoring game, with the total runs likely staying under 8.5. This is a smart expectation given the pitching matchups and recent offensive trends. Overall, expect a close game where pitching will be the deciding factor, and the Guardians should come out on top with a 5-3 win.

Enjoy the game and watch closely as these two Ohio rivals battle it out on the mound and at the plate!

PICK: under 8.5 total runs