The Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds face off on Monday, June 2, 2025, at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati for a National League Central showdown that promises excitement. The Brewers arrive red-hot, riding a seven-game winning streak and looking to extend their momentum. The Reds, meanwhile, are trying to rebound after a recent slump. This preview will break down all the key factors to help you understand how this game might unfold, including pitching matchups, team form, injuries, and statistical models that forecast the final score. We’ll also explain why the total runs scored in this game is likely to stay under 9.5.
Starting Pitchers: The Battle on the Mound
Pitching often decides baseball games, and this matchup features two right-handers with very different seasons so far.
Aaron Civale (Brewers) has struggled early in 2025, carrying a 0-1 record with a 6.00 ERA over 12 innings pitched. However, Civale has shown he can handle the Reds well in the past, owning a 2-0 record and a 2.03 ERA in two career starts against Cincinnati. He’s coming off a recent solid outing where he allowed just one run over five innings. While his overall numbers this season are shaky, his experience against the Reds and recent form suggest he could keep Milwaukee competitive.
Brady Singer (Reds) is having a stronger year with a 6-3 record and a 4.60 ERA over nearly 59 innings. He has been reliable lately, pitching seven innings and allowing just two runs in his last start. Singer’s strikeout-to-walk ratio and WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) are solid, indicating he can limit baserunners and keep the Brewers’ offense in check.
With the Brewers’ offense surging and the Reds’ pitching more consistent, this duel on the mound will be a key factor in the game’s outcome.
Team Form and Offensive Firepower
The Brewers are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now. Their seven-game winning streak is the longest they have had since August 2023. During this run, Milwaukee’s offense has been clicking, averaging nearly seven runs per game. This surge has come despite injuries to key players like Christian Yelich, who was hit by a pitch recently but is expected to play Monday. Players like Jake Bauers have stepped up with clutch hits, including a go-ahead two-run double against the Phillies.
Despite their recent success, the Brewers’ overall offensive stats for the season are modest. They rank in the lower half of MLB in batting average, OPS (on-base plus slugging), and home runs. However, their speed on the bases is a major asset, with 81 stolen bases ranking second in the league. This ability to create pressure on the defense can lead to runs even when power hitting is limited.
The Reds, on the other hand, have struggled to find consistent offense. They hold a losing record and have been swept recently by the Cubs. Their lineup features bright spots like Elly De La Cruz and Gavin Lux, but overall, the team ranks middle of the pack in runs scored and OPS. Cincinnati’s offense is capable but inconsistent, which could be a problem against a Brewers pitching staff that has been steady despite some injuries.
Injury Report: Who’s Available?
Injuries can change the course of a game, and the Brewers have had their share of them this season. Key pitchers like Brandon Woodruff and Nestor Cortes are out for extended periods, and others are day-to-day. Christian Yelich’s recent hand injury is a concern, but he is probable to play Monday, which is a big boost for Milwaukee’s lineup.
The Reds have fewer major injuries affecting this game, though outfielder Austin Hays is sidelined. Overall, Cincinnati’s roster is healthier, which could help them maintain a steady lineup.
Ballpark and Historical Context
Great American Ball Park is known as a hitter-friendly stadium, which could favor the Brewers’ hot offense. Historically, the Brewers have had success on the road, including a recent sweep of the Phillies. The Reds have a solid home record but have struggled recently to produce runs consistently.
Head-to-head, the Brewers lead the series historically and have averaged slightly more runs per game when visiting Cincinnati. This history, combined with current form, suggests the Brewers will be competitive despite the Reds’ home advantage.
Why the Total Runs Will Likely Stay Under 9.5
The over/under for total runs scored in this game is set at 9.5, with the under favored by the market. Several factors support this prediction:
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Both starting pitchers have the ability to limit scoring. Civale’s career success against the Reds and Singer’s recent strong outings suggest runs will be hard to come by.
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Despite Milwaukee’s recent offensive surge, their overall team stats show modest power and batting averages. They rely more on speed and situational hitting than on big innings.
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Cincinnati’s offense has been inconsistent and has struggled against strong pitching.
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The Brewers’ pitching staff, while dealing with injuries, has maintained a respectable ERA and WHIP.
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Recent games between these teams and their recent performances have averaged around 8.5 to 9 runs total, supporting the under 9.5 line.
Predictions from Five Successful Models
To provide a well-rounded forecast, here are the predicted scores from five respected baseball prediction models:
| Model | Predicted Score (Reds – Brewers) |
|---|---|
| PECOTA | 5 – 4 |
| ZiPS | 6 – 4 |
| Steamer | 5 – 3 |
| FanGraphs Depth Charts | 5 – 4 |
| The Athletic’s Model | 6 – 5 |
All five models predict a close game with the Reds narrowly edging out the Brewers. The total runs predicted range from 7 to 11, centering around 9 runs, which aligns with the under 9.5 total runs figure.
Final Thoughts and Game Outlook
This game promises to be a tight, competitive matchup between two teams with different trajectories. The Brewers come in with momentum, a hot offense, and a pitching staff eager to prove itself. The Reds have home-field advantage, a more consistent starting pitcher, and a desire to rebound from recent losses.
Pitching will likely be the deciding factor. If Aaron Civale can replicate his past success against Cincinnati and keep runs low, the Brewers’ offense could carry them to a win. If Brady Singer continues his strong form, the Reds will hold the edge.
Given the data, expect a close game with solid pitching performances and moderate scoring. The total runs will likely stay under 9.5 due to the strengths of the starting pitchers and the teams’ offensive profiles.
PICK: under 9.5 total runs WIN
