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First-place Phils head to Pittsburgh for a clash with the surging Pirates. The Phillies boast a powerful offense, but question marks surround their pitching with key starters battling injuries. Can Philadelphia overcome those uncertainties or will the red-hot Pirates, winners of five straight, pull off an upset at home?
The Phillies, despite their stellar record, are surprisingly the underdogs on the road. Injuries and the Pirates’ hot streak might be influencing the AI picks:
- BetQL: Pirates (+120) – No adjustment needed.
- ESPN: Pirates (54% win probability) – No adjustment needed.
- SportsLine: Pirates (+1) – No adjustment needed.
- Dimers Bettorverse: Pirates (+130) – No adjustment needed.
- NumberFire (high win %): Phillies (52% win probability) – Adjusted slightly up to Phillies 55% due to their overall strong performance.
Average Adjusted Pick: Pirates (+122) with a 53% win probability.
Injury Report and Recent Trends:
- Phillies: Ranger Suarez and Zack Wheeler are questionable, which could be a significant blow to their pitching. Their recent record is inconsistent.
- Pirates: Luis Ortiz, their starting pitcher, is just returning from injury. However, their recent five-game winning streak shows momentum.
Matchup Analysis:
- Phillies: Their offense remains potent, but pitching could be a question mark with key starters potentially missing.
- Pirates: Luis Ortiz’s health is a concern, but their offense is clicking and they’re riding a hot streak.
Considering All Factors:
- The Phillies’ offense is a force, but their pitching could be vulnerable.
- The Pirates are playing with confidence and have a favorable home crowd.
Philadelphia Phillies 4 – Pittsburgh Pirates 5
Reasoning:
- The Pirates’ hot streak might continue at home, especially if Luis Ortiz pitches well.
- The Phillies’ offense could put up runs, but their pitching might struggle.
- The total score (Over/Under 8.5) is a close call. We lean slightly towards Over due to both offenses being hot.
Pirates Ride Momentum to Upset
The AI models favor the Pirates (average: Pirates +122, 53% win probability), and our analysis leans towards them as well. The Phillies’ pitching uncertainty combined with the Pirates’ hot streak makes the upset a strong possibility. The total score is a close call, with both offenses potentially putting up runs.
Pick: The Pittsburgh Pirates +140 Moneyline.
