As the MLB season churns into July, a clear narrative has emerged for the Cleveland Guardians: a team in freefall, particularly with their offensive production. Meanwhile, the St. Louis Cardinals are riding a wave of momentum, having just completed a dominant sweep in Cleveland. For savvy bettors, this provides a prime opportunity to capitalize on a market that might be slow to adjust to the Guardians’ offensive woes. This analysis will meticulously break down the upcoming game, delving into each team’s recent performance, strengths, weaknesses, key players, and situational factors, culminating in a strong case for why betting the Under 8 total runs is a calculated and smart decision.
The Cleveland Guardians: A June to Forget
The Cleveland Guardians are in a dire slump, particularly at the plate. Their .210 batting average in June is not just poor; it’s on pace to set a new franchise record for the lowest in the month, surpassing the .217 mark from 1915. This offensive anemia has been the primary driver of their recent 15-24 record over the last six weeks, pushing them to one game below .500 for the season. They’ve also lost four consecutive home series and are just 1-4 on their current six-game homestand, including being swept by the Cardinals.
Their lineup features a few bright spots, such as José Ramírez (.312 AVG) and Steven Kwan (.300 AVG), but beyond them, the collective offensive output is concerning. Players like David Fry (.150 AVG) and Austin Hedges (.118 AVG) are struggling immensely, creating significant holes in their batting order. Despite these struggles, team president Chris Antonetti has publicly stated that no major trade acquisitions are coming to rescue the team, signaling a belief that the internal talent can right the ship. This means the current offensive issues are unlikely to see a sudden, dramatic improvement from outside sources.
On the mound, the Guardians will send Logan Allen (5-6, 4.27 ERA) to the hill. While his ERA is respectable, his WHIP of 1.50 (as per earlier data, though updated data shows 1.49 WHIP across 78.0 IP) suggests he allows a significant number of baserunners. He recently allowed 3 runs over 6 innings against the Cardinals, giving up a 3-run homer in the first. Allen’s career numbers show a tendency to struggle in the first inning (6.75 ERA in the opening frame). If he can settle in after that, he might limit further damage, but early runs could be a concern.
The Guardians’ bullpen, while historically strong, has taken a step back in 2025, with an ERA of 3.74, ranking 15th in baseball. While Emmanuel Clase remains a lights-out closer, the bridge to him has shown some cracks.
The St. Louis Cardinals: Riding High
In stark contrast to the Guardians, the St. Louis Cardinals are soaring. They just completed a dominant sweep in Cleveland, capped by a 7-0 shutout victory. This sweep was their fifth of the season and their first against the Guardians, extending their road winning streak to six games, their longest since 2021. They’ve won 10 of their last 13 games, putting them a season-best nine games over .500.
The Cardinals’ offense has been opportunistic and timely. Players like Nolan Gorman, who recently blasted a three-run homer against Logan Allen, have been instrumental in their recent surge, with Gorman hitting .267 with six homers and 16 RBIs in June. Alec Burleson has been on a tear with 33 hits in June, raising his season average to .300 with a .336 clip on the road. And while he’s not hitting for average, Nolan Arenado is always a threat and will be eager to homer against the only team he hasn’t in his career. The team’s overall batting average is a more respectable .241 over the last 7 days, indicating a recent uptick in production.
Starting for the Cardinals will be Matthew Liberatore (6-6, 3.70 ERA). Liberatore has shown good form recently, pitching six-plus scoreless innings in his last outing against the Guardians, allowing only three hits. His 1.16 WHIP is significantly better than Allen’s, suggesting he’s more effective at limiting baserunners. Liberatore has a career ERA of 6.35 in 5.2 innings against Cleveland, but his recent performance against them suggests he’s found a rhythm. The Cardinals’ bullpen, while not as statistically dominant as some, is backed by the impressive Ryan Helsley, who recently recorded his 100th career save and is tied for the MLB lead in saves since the start of 2024.
Situational Factors and Betting Analysis: Why Under 8 is the Play
The confluence of these factors strongly points to a lower-scoring game, making the Under 8 total runs a highly attractive bet. Here’s a deeper dive into why:
- Guardians’ Offensive Anemia: This is the most critical factor. Their June batting average is historically low, and they are struggling to string hits together, let alone consistently score runs. Even against a starting pitcher they’ve seen before, their recent struggles suggest a breakthrough is unlikely to come easily. Their inability to produce runs was glaring in the last game, where they were shut out 7-0. Their 0-for-9 with RISP in that game is a testament to their struggles in high-leverage situations.
- Pitching Matchup: Both Liberatore and Allen are left-handers, which can sometimes lead to lower scoring as teams often have fewer power hitters from the right side. More importantly, both have demonstrated the ability to pitch effectively for stretches. Liberatore is coming off a dominant performance against this very Guardians lineup. While Allen has a higher ERA, he did strike out six over six innings in his last outing, showcasing some ability to limit damage, despite the early homer.
- Home Field Disadvantage for Guardians: The Guardians have not been good at home lately, losing four straight home series. This suggests that the typical “home field advantage” in baseball might be inverted for them given their current slump. Their home record is now 20-20, barely .500.
- Cardinals’ Momentum vs. Sustainability: While the Cardinals are hot, baseball is a game of averages. They just put up 7 runs in a shutout. Sustaining such offensive outbursts, especially on the road, can be challenging. Their overall team batting average isn’t elite, and while June has been good, they’re not a consistent offensive juggernaut that will routinely blow out opponents.
- Bullpen Strength: Both bullpens have shown flashes of competence. While the Guardians’ bullpen ERA has regressed to 3.74, they still have strong back-end arms like Clase. The Cardinals have Helsley, a proven closer. If the starters can navigate the early innings, the bullpens are capable of holding down the score, especially with the Guardians’ cold bats.
- Historical Trends and Ballpark Factors: While the specific ballpark (Progressive Field) isn’t notoriously pitcher- or hitter-friendly to an extreme, the recent trend of low-scoring games involving the Guardians at home is significant. Their ability to not score runs has become a defining characteristic.
Evaluating Outcomes for Under 8:
For an “Under 8” bet to hit, the combined score needs to be 7 runs or less.
- Scenario 1: Low-Scoring Pitchers’ Duel (Most Likely): This is the ideal scenario. Liberatore continues his good form against the struggling Guardians’ lineup, holding them to 1-2 runs. Allen, despite potential early jitters, settles in and limits the Cardinals to 2-3 runs. This would result in a final score well under 8 (e.g., 2-1, 3-2, 4-2).
- Scenario 2: One Team Explodes, Other Stays Cold: The Cardinals might get 4-5 runs against Allen, but the Guardians’ offense remains dormant, scoring 0-1 run. A 5-1 or 4-1 final still hits the Under. This is plausible given the recent Cardinals’ offensive output and the Guardians’ complete lack thereof.
- Scenario 3: Both Teams Struggle: A truly ugly offensive game, perhaps a 2-0 or 3-1 affair. Given the Guardians’ struggles, this is not out of the question, especially if Liberatore continues to dominate and Allen pitches to his better capabilities.
The risks primarily lie with Logan Allen having a disastrous outing and the Guardians somehow finding their offense. However, the probability of the Guardians’ offense suddenly waking up in a significant way, especially against a pitcher who just shut them down, is low. The Cardinals’ recent offensive burst is impressive, but sustaining it against a decent, albeit struggling, pitcher and a capable bullpen is not a given.
Conclusion: Capitalizing on Cold Bats
Betting on the Under 8 in this game is a calculated and smart decision for several compelling reasons. The Cleveland Guardians are in a verifiable offensive crisis, displaying historical lows in batting performance. Their struggles are unlikely to be magically fixed overnight, especially against a Cardinals team that just thoroughly shut them down. While the Cardinals’ offense has been hot, baseball’s inherent variance suggests a high-scoring explosion from them isn’t guaranteed.
The pitching matchup, featuring two left-handers with recent decent performances (especially Liberatore’s dominance against Cleveland), combined with a Guardians team that cannot hit, creates a perfect storm for a low-scoring affair. Factors like the Guardians’ poor home record and the overall strength of both bullpens further bolster the case for the Under.
For bettors looking to capitalize on clear trends and capitalize on a market that may be slow to fully price in the depth of the Guardians’ offensive struggles, the Under 8 offers significant value. Don’t chase the narrative of the Cardinals’ recent offensive surge; instead, lean into the undeniable reality of the Guardians’ cold bats and the probability of a tight, low-scoring contest.
Pick: Under 8
