Rebounding Mastery and Free-Throw Precision Define Auburn’s and Michigan State’s Elite Eight Encounter

On Sunday, March 30, 2025, the State Farm Arena in Atlanta, GA, will host one of the most anticipated Elite Eight matchups of the NCAA Tournament. The Michigan State Spartans and Auburn Tigers are set to face off in a tightly contested game that could determine which team moves on to the Final Four. In this post, we break down our prediction, explain our reasoning, and share how five reputable prediction models support our outlook.

Game Overview

Both teams come into this matchup with impressive tournament resumes. Auburn, the top seed in the South Region, has showcased an explosive second-half style and impressive in-game adjustments. Their recent Sweet 16 performance against Michigan featured a memorable run that lifted them from a deficit to secure a 78-65 victory. On the other side, Michigan State, guided by legendary coach Tom Izzo, has been consistent with their disciplined play. The Spartans’ hard-nosed defense and balanced offense helped them edge out a narrow 73-70 win over Ole Miss in the Sweet 16.

Key Factors Impacting the Game

Offensive and Defensive Efficiency:
Auburn’s strength lies in its ability to score inside and execute during critical moments. The Tigers feature standout players like Tahaad Pettiford, who has averaged nearly 20 points in the tournament, and Johni Broome, whose double-doubles have made a big impact in recent games. Their aggressive approach on the boards and the late-game scoring surge give them a clear advantage.

Michigan State, however, is known for its rugged defensive identity. Their strategy centers on controlling the pace, limiting opponents’ opportunities, and capitalizing on free throws. Freshman guard Jase Richardson’s ability to create shots and score 20 points in crucial moments has been a key factor for the Spartans. Their overall approach is built on staying close in tight contests and slowly building an advantage in the second half.

Pace and Rebounding:
Both teams excel on the glass, but Auburn’s superior offensive rebounding provides them with extra possessions. Michigan State, meanwhile, has the ability to disrupt opposing offenses with their stifling defense and force turnovers. This aspect of the game is essential, as it can determine the final margin. We expect Auburn to establish an early lead with their inside scoring, but Michigan State’s defensive stops could keep the game within reach.

Free Throw and Turnover Rates:
Michigan State’s efficiency at the free throw line is another critical factor. Their ability to draw fouls and convert those opportunities often makes the difference in close contests. While Auburn is capable of scoring in transition, they can sometimes struggle with turnovers in high-pressure situations. These subtleties could influence the final outcome, especially if the game remains close throughout.

Score Predictions from Five Renowned Models

Our projection for this game is not based on a single source. Instead, we consulted five successful and well-respected prediction models known for their accurate projections. These models include:

1. KenPom:
   KenPom projects a final score of Auburn 75, Michigan State 70. The model emphasizes Auburn’s strong inside play and Michigan State’s ability to keep the game within a small margin.

2. ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI):
   According to ESPN’s BPI, Auburn is expected to win 76-70. This model highlights Auburn’s explosive second-half scoring and the Spartans’ tight defensive performance.

3. Sagarin Ratings:
   The Sagarin model gives Auburn a 74-69 win. Sagarin’s analysis underlines Michigan State’s steady free throw production and Auburn’s reliance on in-game momentum shifts.

4. TeamRankings:
   TeamRankings projects the game at Auburn 75, Michigan State 71. Their data-driven approach focuses on both teams’ recent performances and head-to-head tendencies in similar high-pressure matchups.

5. Action Network’s Projection:
   The Action Network also lands on a score of Auburn 75, Michigan State 70. This model takes into account the Spartans’ ability to stay in close contests while noting Auburn’s edge in offensive rebounding.

All five models consistently forecast a narrow victory for Auburn by about 5 points, with combined scores around 145 points. This consistency reinforces our view that the game will be closely contested and relatively low-scoring.

Why the Under 147 Total Points?

When analyzing the total points, our models and additional data point toward a game total that falls under the 147-point threshold. Here are several reasons why we favor the under:

• Defensive Intensity:
  Both teams have shown a high level of defensive discipline throughout the tournament. Michigan State, in particular, has been effective at limiting opponents’ field goal percentages. Auburn, despite their offensive prowess, tends to slow down when they fall behind. This defensive rigor suggests that neither team will push the pace to generate a high-scoring affair.

• Pace Control:
  Michigan State’s tendency to manage the game’s pace, combined with Auburn’s strategic approach to securing rebounds and controlling possession, means that each possession is carefully managed. This results in fewer overall possessions and, therefore, a lower final score.

• Recent Tournament Trends:
  In their first three tournament games, Michigan State has consistently trended under similar total points, and Auburn’s game plans have often been structured around maintaining control rather than explosive scoring. The predictions from the five models align with this trend, averaging a total score of around 145 points, which supports an under 147 total points outcome.

Final Thoughts

In summary, the matchup between Michigan State and Auburn is set to be an intense, closely fought contest. Auburn’s experience, inside scoring, and late-game momentum appear to give them a slight edge over Michigan State’s balanced defense and controlled pace. The five prediction models—KenPom, ESPN BPI, Sagarin, TeamRankings, and Action Network—uniformly predict a final score in favor of Auburn by about 5 points, with a combined score of around 145 points. This strong consensus across multiple respected models provides a solid basis for our outlook.

Moreover, the under 147 total points line is supported by the defensive efficiencies, pace control, and recent scoring trends from both teams. Auburn’s offensive rebounds and Michigan State’s free throw efficiency create a scenario where the game is more about controlled possessions rather than high-paced scoring.

For those looking to understand this Elite Eight matchup, the key takeaway is that Auburn’s superior in-game adjustments and scoring inside, combined with Michigan State’s grit and disciplined defense, should produce a low-scoring, tightly contested game that ends around Auburn 75 to Michigan State 70. This detailed analysis aims to help you decide confidently, based on multiple successful models and a thorough look at key performance factors.

PICK: under 147 total points WIN