What are the top NFL week 1 Trends for Ravens vs Chiefs?

Keith “KC” Carrion here, it is that time of year again.  It’s NFL season! and I am happier than a referee at a wet t-shirt contest about it.  I am ready to share some insights into the exciting NFL season opener between the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs. As the 2024 season kicks off, this matchup promises to be a thrilling start. Let’s explore the trends, player props, and predictions for this Thursday night showdown. Armed with this knowledge we can then go and take some of that money out of the sportsbooks.

Chiefs as Home Favorites

The Chiefs are favored by 3 points at home at the time of this writing, a nod to their recent success as defending champs and the advantage of playing at Arrowhead. However, before you make any bets, let’s delve into some trends that might influence your decision.

Trends Favoring the Ravens

1. Lamar Jackson’s Underdog Record: Lamar Jackson is a force to be reckoned with when he’s not expected to win. He boasts an impressive 12-1-1 record against the spread (ATS) and a 10-4 straight-up record as a regular-season underdog. This is the best record for any quarterback in the Super Bowl era with at least five starts as an underdog. When the odds are stacked against him, Jackson often rises to the occasion.
2. Ravens’ Week 1 Success: Under head coach John Harbaugh, the Ravens have consistently performed well in Week 1, posting a 12-4 ATS record. Over the last eight years, they’ve gone 7-1 ATS in season openers. Harbaugh clearly knows how to get his team ready for the start of the season.
3. Super Bowl Champions’ Week 1 Woes: Recent history hasn’t been kind to reigning Super Bowl champions in their season openers. They’ve gone 0-3 ATS in Week 1 over the past three seasons, with back-to-back outright losses. Could the Chiefs face a similar fate?

Trends Favoring the Chiefs

1. Arrowhead Advantage: While the Chiefs haven’t been dominant ATS at home over the last decade, they have been tough to beat outright, especially in high-stakes games like season openers. The Arrowhead crowd will be loud and proud, creating a challenging environment for the Ravens.
2. Defensive Strength: The Chiefs’ defense is not to be underestimated. Their pass rush could pose significant challenges for the Ravens’ offensive line, particularly if there are any new or untested components. This defensive prowess could be key in limiting Baltimore’s scoring opportunities.

Player Props to Watch

Now, let’s focus on player props, where the real opportunities lie. Here are some key props and trends to consider:

1. Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards: Mahomes has been particularly effective against the Ravens, averaging 369.8 passing yards in four regular-season games against them. This is his highest average against any team he’s faced at least three times. The books have set his passing yards prop around 258.5-269.5 yards. Given his track record, the over looks appealing.
2. Rashee Rice Receiving Yards: The second-year receiver has a receiving yards prop set at 60.5. Rice ended his rookie season on a high note, surpassing 61+ receiving yards in 5 of the final 6 games. In last year’s AFC Championship against the Ravens, he caught 8 passes for 46 yards. With Marquise Brown out, Rice is expected to be Mahomes’ primary target, likely seeing significant action from the slot.
3. Mahomes’ Rushing Ability: Mahomes can also make plays with his legs. His rushing yards prop is set at 20.5 yards, a number he exceeded in 6 of the first 7 games and 10 times overall last season. When the pocket collapses, Mahomes is adept at scrambling for yards.
4. Travis Kelce’s Role: Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5. While that might seem low for the All-Pro tight end, remember that he’s scored a touchdown in Week 1 for three consecutive seasons prior to missing last year’s opener. Expect Mahomes to look his way frequently.
5. Lamar Jackson Props: Beyond his impressive ATS record as an underdog, Jackson is 25-11-2 ATS on the road in regular season games. He’s also been reliable in early-season first halves, going 4-1 ATS in Week 1 and 8-2 ATS in the first two weeks. A first-half Ravens bet might be worth considering.

Touchdown Scorer Predictions

While we don’t have specific AI predictions for touchdown scorers, we can make informed guesses based on the props and trends:

• Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are always threats to score, either through the air or on the ground. Their passing touchdown props (over 1.5 for Mahomes at -180, over 1.5 for Jackson at +135) suggest multiple scores are expected.
• Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews are prime red-zone targets for their respective quarterbacks. Keep an eye on their anytime touchdown scorer props.
• Isiah Pacheco and Derrick Henry, as the primary running backs, will likely see goal-line opportunities. Their rushing yards props (Pacheco over 58.5 at -115, Henry over 63.5 at -115) indicate they’ll be heavily involved in the game plan.

Betting Totals

Before wrapping up, let’s discuss totals. There are some intriguing trends to consider:

1. Second-Half Unders: The Chiefs have been a strong under play in the second half, with an 18-3 record to the under last season. Both teams ranked high in second-half points allowed last year, so this trend could continue.
2. Primetime Unders: Night games have been trending under, hitting at 59.5% since 2019, including a 79-48 record over the last two seasons. This Thursday night matchup fits the pattern.
3. Week 1 Unders: Historically, Week 1 games have leaned under, with a 32-17 (65%) record in recent years. Teams often start slow offensively as they shake off the offseason rust.

Conclusion

So, what’s the play here? The trends offer compelling arguments for both sides, which is often the case in high-profile matchups like this. The Ravens’ strong ATS record as underdogs and in Week 1 games is hard to ignore, but the Chiefs’ home-field advantage and defensive strength can’t be overlooked. If I had to make a call, I’d lean towards taking the Ravens and the points. Lamar Jackson’s ability to keep games close as an underdog is too good to pass up. For player props, I like Mahomes over on passing yards given his history against Baltimore, and I’m intrigued by Rashee Rice’s over on receiving yards with his expanded role. As for the total, the trends suggest looking at the under. Consider a second-half under or even a full-game under if you can get a favorable number.  Good luck!