Rangers vs. White Sox: Can Chicago Build on Friday’s Win?

The Texas Rangers and Chicago White Sox continue their weekend series on Saturday, May 24, 2025, at Rate Field, with both teams looking to gain momentum in a challenging season.

Friday’s opener saw the White Sox snap a rough stretch with a 4-1 victory, capitalizing on Texas’ struggling offense. The Rangers, now 25-27 and sitting fourth in the AL West, have been plagued by injuries to key players, including Corey Seager and Evan Carter. Meanwhile, the White Sox (16-35) remain at the bottom of the AL Central but showed signs of life in the series opener.

Pitching Matchup: Leiter vs. Cannon

Right-hander Jack Leiter takes the mound for Texas, looking to rebound after inconsistent performances this season. The former top prospect has shown flashes of brilliance but has sometimes struggled with command, posting a 4.50 ERA. His ability to limit hard contact will be crucial against a White Sox lineup that has been one of the weakest in baseball but showed discipline in Friday’s win.

Chicago counters with Jonathan Cannon, a rare bright spot in an otherwise dismal rotation. With a 4.20 ERA and solid control, Cannon will need to navigate a Rangers lineup that, while depleted, still has power threats like Adolis García and Nathaniel Lowe.

Key Factors to Watch

1. Texas’ Offensive Struggles – The Rangers rank near the bottom of the league in runs scored over the past two weeks, and the absence of Seager and Carter has left a gap in production.

2. White Sox Bullpen Advantage – Chicago’s relievers have been surprisingly effective lately, while Texas’ bullpen has been shaky, especially with Josh Sborz and Cody Bradford sidelined.

3. Weather & Ballpark Factors – Guaranteed Rate Field tends to play slightly pitcher-friendly in cooler May conditions, which could help keep scoring down.

Will the Rangers bounce back, or can the White Sox string together back-to-back wins for just the second time this month? Stay tuned for our full breakdown and betting insights.

AI Betting Model Predictions (Average)

Average AI Prediction:

• Rangers 4.2 – White Sox 3.7

• Implied Total: 7.9 runs (slightly under 8.5)

My Custom Prediction (Pythagorean Theorem + Strength of Schedule + Adjustments)

1. Pythagorean Win Expectation

• Rangers:

  • Runs Scored (RS): 4.3

  • Runs Allowed (RA): 4.5

  • Pythagorean Win %: 0.478

• White Sox:

  • RS: 3.5

  • RA: 5.2

  • Pythagorean Win %: 0.312

Adjusted Win Expectation:

• Rangers have a 60.5% implied win probability.

2. Strength of Schedule (SOS) Adjustment

• Rangers’ SOS: 10th toughest

• White Sox’s SOS: 5th toughest

• Adjustment: White Sox have faced tougher opponents, slightly closing the gap.

3. Pitching Matchup & Injuries

• Jack Leiter (TEX):

  • 2025 stats: 4.50 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

  • Struggles vs. lefties (White Sox have a few key lefty bats).

• Jonathan Cannon (CWS):

  • 2025 stats: 4.20 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

  • Decent control but prone to HRs (Rangers have power despite injuries).

Key Injuries:

• Rangers: Missing Corey Seager, Evan Carter, Jon Gray (big offensive & pitching losses).

• White Sox: Missing Martin Perez (bullpen weakened).

4. Recent Trends & Bullpen

• White Sox bullpen has been slightly better recently.

Final Custom Prediction:

• Rangers 3.9 – White Sox 3.8

• Lean: Under 8.5 (both teams have struggled offensively, strong pitching trends).

Considering all the factors

Final predicted score based on the combined AI model average and my custom analysis (factoring in Pythagorean expectations, strength of schedule, injuries, and trends):

Final Predicted Score

Texas Rangers 4 – Chicago White Sox 3

• Total Runs: 7 (Lean UNDER 8.5)

Pick

• Take under 8.5 total runs.