The crack of the bat, the roar of the crowd, and the satisfying thud of a baseball hitting the outfield wall – these are the sounds of runs, and tonight at Citi Field, we expect a symphony of them. As the New York Mets (57-44) face off against the Los Angeles Angels (49-51) in the middle game of their series, all signs point to an offensive showcase that makes the Over 9 runs line a calculated and highly intelligent bet.
Yesterday’s 7-5 comeback victory for the Mets was a preview of what we can expect: shaky starting pitching, opportunistic hitting, and bullpens that, despite flashes of brilliance, are prone to giving up runs. For savvy bettors, this creates a fertile ground for high-scoring affairs. Let’s dig into the details and uncover why the “Over” is the play.
The Pitching Predicament: Two Right-Handers Ripe for Runs
The mound battle tonight features two right-handers with ERAs hovering around 5.00: Kyle Hendricks (5-6, 4.88 ERA) for the Angels and Frankie Montas (2-1, 5.03 ERA) for the Mets. Neither pitcher inspires confidence in a low-scoring game.
Kyle Hendricks: The “Professor” Getting Schooled
Kyle Hendricks, once known for his pinpoint control and ability to induce weak contact, has seen his “Professor” moniker lose some of its luster in 2025. With a 4.88 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 96 innings, he’s far from his peak. Looking at his recent starts paints a clear picture:
- July 9 vs. TEX: 3.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 HR, 1 BB (9.82 ERA for the start)
- July 4 @ TOR: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 3 ER (5.06 ERA for the start)
- June 22 vs. HOU: 5.0 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 2 HR (5.40 ERA for the start)
Hendricks has given up at least three runs in five of his last seven starts. His inability to consistently go deep into games puts immediate pressure on an Angels bullpen that, while having periods of strong performance, has been quite “Very Weak” against right-handed hitters, sporting a .263 AVG against them according to Inside the Pen. Furthermore, the Angels’ bullpen has a 2025 ERA of 4.87, ranking them as “Very Weak” overall.
Against Hendricks, the Mets’ lineup, particularly their right-handed power hitters, will be licking their chops. Pete Alonso, who has “reverse splits” this season (hitting right-handed pitching better than left-handed pitching, with a .300 average and 16 of his 21 homers against righties), is a prime candidate to do damage. Juan Soto (24 HR, .256 AVG) and Francisco Lindor (19 HR, .248 AVG) also pose significant threats. The Mets have an overall OPS of .766 in innings 7-9 this season, ranking 2nd best in MLB, demonstrating their ability to score late and often, especially when facing tired or struggling relievers.
Frankie Montas: Shaky Return to the Bigs
Frankie Montas, making his fifth start of the season after returning from injury, also presents a favorable matchup for the opposing offense. While he picked up a win in his last start, allowing just one run over five innings against the Royals, his overall 5.03 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 19.2 innings suggest he’s still finding his footing. In 2025, Montas has been “up and down,” and injuries have consistently plagued his career.
The Angels’ offense, despite their sub-.500 record, has some dangerous bats. While they have struggled with drawing walks against left-handed pitching, they are facing a right-hander in Montas. Their overall batting average isn’t stellar (.233), but they have power, with 139 home runs this season (5th in MLB). Players like Zach Neto (.281 AVG), Jo Adell (21 HR), and Taylor Ward (.412 AVG, 2 HR, 11 RBI in his last 7 days) have shown they can produce.
Moreover, the Mets’ bullpen, despite Edwin Diaz’s All-Star status and Monday’s commendable performance, has its own vulnerabilities. Their overall bullpen ERA for 2025 stands at 3.75, which is average, but their “Weak” assessment against left-handed hitters and an overall “Average” assessment suggests they can be scored upon, especially if Montas has a short outing and exposes them early.
Offensive Outlook: Bats Heating Up in Queens
Both offenses have shown recent flashes of capability, making the Over even more appealing.
New York Mets Offense:
The Mets’ offense is potent, especially at home. They have a winning percentage of 69% at home this season, 2nd best in MLB. Their ability to generate runs in late innings (2nd best OPS in innings 7-9) indicates their resilience and depth. Pete Alonso’s strong performance against right-handed pitching, coupled with the power of Soto and Lindor, gives them a solid foundation to attack Hendricks. Brett Baty, coming off a two-run homer and the game-winning run on Monday, is another player to watch. The Mets’ overall slugging percentage of .415 (7th in MLB) suggests they can hit for extra bases.
Los Angeles Angels Offense:
While the Angels haven’t been as consistent as the Mets, they certainly have offensive firepower. Their 139 home runs rank them fifth in MLB, meaning they can put up runs in a hurry. Taylor Ward’s recent hot streak is particularly noteworthy. The Angels will be looking to bounce back after squandering a lead on Monday, and the fact that they were hitting the “over” in 9 of their last 10 games with a total suggests their games tend to be high-scoring affairs.
Situational Factors and Betting Trends: A Clear Signal for the Over
Several situational factors further bolster the “Over 9” argument:
- Monday’s Game as a Precedent: The 7-5 score on Monday, despite a strong performance from the Mets’ bullpen after Kodai Senga’s early exit, demonstrates the offensive potential of both teams. With two less dominant starters on the mound today, more runs are certainly in play.
- Bullpen Usage: Both starting pitchers are unlikely to go deep into the game. Montas has only thrown 19.2 innings this season, and Hendricks has struggled to consistently pitch beyond the fifth or sixth. This means we’ll see a significant amount of bullpen action, which historically tends to lead to more runs. The Angels’ bullpen was tagged for the loss on Monday, and their overall “Very Weak” rating suggests they are vulnerable. The Mets’ bullpen, while stronger, showed it needed to be used extensively yesterday after Senga’s short outing.
- Weather at Citi Field: The forecast for Citi Field on Wednesday, July 23rd, indicates partly cloudy skies with a high of () and a low of (). Winds will be blowing from the south at 16 km/h (10 mph). Warm temperatures and winds blowing out can often lead to increased offense.
- Angels’ Recent Over Trend: The Angels have gone over the total in 9 of their last 10 games. This strong trend is a significant indicator of their recent high-scoring contests.
Evaluating All Possible Outcomes and the “Over 9” Justification
While any game can present surprises, let’s consider the most likely scenarios:
- Scenario 1: Both Starters Struggle. This is the most probable outcome. If both Hendricks and Montas struggle early, the game could easily be 4-3 or 5-4 by the fifth inning, leaving plenty of room for the bullpens to push the total over.
- Scenario 2: One Starter is Good, One Struggles. If, for instance, Montas has a good outing, but Hendricks is hit hard, the Mets could put up a large number of runs, forcing the Angels to play catch-up and potentially score more against the Mets’ bullpen. The reverse is also true. The over still hits if one team carries the load.
- Scenario 3: Both Starters are Surprisingly Good. This is the least likely scenario given their recent form and overall ERAs. Even in this case, a single mistake pitch can lead to a home run, and as we saw Monday, games can quickly turn on a few swings. Moreover, the bullpens will still eventually come into play.
The “Over 9” total is set at a manageable number for two offenses with power facing two relatively vulnerable starting pitchers and bullpens. The offensive environment at Citi Field, combined with the recent trends of both teams to play in higher-scoring games, makes this a compelling pick.
Conclusion: Ride the Wave of Runs
In the intricate world of baseball betting, identifying favorable matchups and trends is paramount. Tonight’s clash between the Mets and the Angels presents a clear opportunity to capitalize on an expected offensive explosion. With Kyle Hendricks and Frankie Montas on the mound, both of whom have shown susceptibility to allowing runs, and with two bullpens that have their weaknesses, the stage is set for a high-scoring affair.
The Mets’ powerful lineup, particularly against right-handed pitching, coupled with the Angels’ recent tendency to go over the total, strongly supports the “Over 9” wager. Don’t overthink this one. Trust the numbers, embrace the offensive potential, and prepare to cheer for every run. This isn’t just a bet; it’s a strategic embrace of baseball’s unpredictable, yet often explosive, nature.
Pick: Over 9
