The NBA Eastern Conference Finals continue on May 27, 2025, with a pivotal Game 4 between the New York Knicks and the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers currently lead the series 2-1 after the Knicks took Game 3 with a 106-100 victory. The current betting odds have the Pacers as -2 point favorites at home, with a total of 221 points.
Let’s break down the analysis, combining AI model predictions, Pythagorean expectation, strength of schedule, injuries, and recent trends to provide the best possible pick.
Injury Report:
- New York Knicks: No major player injuries reported.
- Indiana Pacers: Isaiah Jackson is out for the season. Aaron Nesmith is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. Nesmith’s status is significant as he plays a crucial defensive role and contributes offensively, impacting Indiana’s overall efficiency.
AI Sports Betting Models’ Predictions (Based on available data for May 27, 2025):
Finding precise “final score predictions” from a range of top AI models can be challenging, as many focus on spread and total rather than exact scores. However, we can infer implied scores from their spread and total predictions.
- Dimers.com: Simulates 10,000 games. For May 27, 2025, they give the Pacers a 57% win probability with a -2.5 point spread. They don’t provide a direct final score, but with a total around 220.5-221.5, this suggests a Pacer win by a small margin.
- Implied Score (using -2.5 spread and 221 total): Pacers ~112, Knicks ~109.5
- SportsLine Projection Model: Simulates every NBA game 10,000 times. For the Knicks vs. Pacers game, they are going “Under on the point total” (220.5/221) and predict the spread (Pacers -2 or -2.5) “hits in almost 60% of simulations.”
- Implied Score (using -2.5 spread and Under 221 total, let’s say 218): Pacers ~110.25, Knicks ~107.75
- BetQL (via Dimers): BetQL’s model “constantly tracks a massive dataset of trends, including historical scoring averages, recent game paces, and team matchups” and “identifies games where the over/under line might be off the mark.” While not providing an explicit score, their analysis for player props and trends suggests a tight game. Given Dimers’ 57% win probability for Pacers at -2.5, BetQL aligns with similar outcomes.
- Implied Score (consistent with Dimers): Pacers ~112, Knicks ~109.5
Average AI Model Implied Final Score Prediction:
Let’s average the implied scores:
- Pacers: (112 + 110.25 + 112) / 3 = 111.42
- Knicks: (109.5 + 107.75 + 109.5) / 3 = 108.92
Average AI Predicted Total: 111.42 + 108.92 = 220.34 Average AI Predicted Spread: 111.42 – 108.92 = 2.5 (Pacers)
My Prediction (Pythagorean Theorem + Strength of Schedule + Other Conditions):
Pythagorean Expectation: The Pythagorean expectation in basketball typically uses an exponent of around 13.91 to 16.5, with 13.91 being a commonly accepted value. The formula is:
Since this is a playoff series, and regular season records might not perfectly reflect current form, we’ll use an adjusted approach based on recent performance and overall season strength. For this game, we’ll use the implied offensive and defensive ratings from the series and recent games rather than full-season stats, as they are more indicative of current form.
Let’s estimate the points per possession for each team based on their playoff performance so far, as well as their full-season advanced stats. Since I don’t have real-time access to the most granular possession data for this specific series, I’ll use a simplified approach based on their general offensive and defensive strengths and the recent game (Game 3: NYK 106, IND 100).
- Knicks: Known for strong defense and Jalen Brunson’s scoring. Their offensive rating is likely around league average or slightly above, while their defensive rating is elite.
- Pacers: Known for high pace and offensive efficiency, with a less consistent defense.
Given the total points of 221 for this game, let’s consider their typical scoring rates.
Assuming an average of 95 possessions per game for this series (a bit slower than the Pacers’ regular season pace, aligning with playoff defense):
- Knicks’ points per possession (PPP) in Game 3: 106 points / ~95 possessions = 1.11 PPP
- Pacers’ points per possession (PPP) in Game 3: 100 points / ~95 possessions = 1.05 PPP
However, Game 3 was a Knicks win. For a neutral projection, let’s consider their average season efficiency, adjusted for playoff intensity.
Let’s use a slightly more nuanced approach for Pythagorean expectation, considering the spread and total. A -2 spread on a 221 total implies scores of 111.5 for the Pacers and 109.5 for the Knicks. This implies a winning percentage for the Pacers around 55-56%.
Strength of Schedule (SOS): In a playoff series, strength of schedule becomes less about the entire season and more about the quality of the opponent in the current series. Both teams have faced tough opponents to reach the Conference Finals. The Pacers, playing at home, naturally gain a significant advantage, which is already reflected in the spread. The Knicks, despite their win in Game 3, are still the underdog on the road.
Other Conditions:
- Key Player Injuries:
- Indiana Pacers: Aaron Nesmith being questionable is a concern. He’s a key defender for the Pacers, especially on the wing, and if he’s limited or out, it weakens their perimeter defense against Jalen Brunson and other Knicks scorers. This slightly favors the Knicks.
- Trends:
- Knicks’ Resilience: Their comeback win in Game 3 shows significant resilience and mental toughness. This momentum could carry over.
- Pacers’ Home Court: The Pacers are typically strong at home (29-11 regular season home record). Losing Game 3 at home might ignite a stronger performance in Game 4.
- Pace of Play: The Pacers prefer a faster pace, while the Knicks like to slow it down and play physical. Game 3 was lower scoring than the previous games, indicating the Knicks might be successfully dictating the pace.
- Recent News: No other significant news about players sitting out besides the reported injuries. Karl-Anthony Towns (for the Knicks) had a strong Game 3, which is a positive sign for New York’s offense.
My Score Prediction (incorporating all factors):
Considering the Pacers’ home advantage, their need to bounce back after Game 3, and the potential absence/limitation of Nesmith, I expect a close game, likely with the Pacers coming out on top but not by a large margin. The Knicks’ defensive intensity and Brunson’s scoring will keep them in it. The total of 221 seems reasonable, but the trend in Game 3 suggests a slightly lower scoring game.
Let’s adjust the implied scores to reflect the possibility of Nesmith’s injury impacting the Pacers’ defense slightly and the Knicks’ recent defensive form.
I predict a slightly lower scoring game than the average AI prediction, leaning towards the Under due to playoff intensity and the Knicks’ defensive identity. I also believe the Pacers, even with Nesmith questionable, will leverage their home-court advantage to win.
- My Predicted Score: Indiana Pacers 109 – New York Knicks 105
Best Possible Pick: Averaging Models’ Picks with My Pick
Let’s combine the average AI model prediction with my prediction:
- Average AI Model Predicted Score: Pacers 111.42, Knicks 108.92 (Total 220.34)
- My Predicted Score: Pacers 109, Knicks 105 (Total 214)
Averaged Final Score Prediction:
- Pacers: (111.42 + 109) / 2 = 110.21
- Knicks: (108.92 + 105) / 2 = 106.96
Averaged Total Prediction: 110.21 + 106.96 = 217.17 Averaged Spread Prediction: 110.21 – 106.96 = 3.25 (Pacers)
Recommendation:
Based on the averaged predictions:
- Final Score Prediction: Indiana Pacers 110, New York Knicks 107
- Spread: Indiana Pacers -3
- Total: 217
Comparing this to the given lines:
- Pacers are -2 points at home. My average prediction is Pacers -3.25, which means the Indiana Pacers -2 looks like a good pick as it’s slightly lower than the combined models’ prediction.
- The total is 221 points. My average prediction is 217.17, which is notably under the set total.
Pick
- Take Indiana Pacers -2 points.
