The Seattle Mariners and St. Louis Cardinals are set to clash in a pivotal game on September 6th, 2024, at Busch Stadium. With both teams vying for playoff spots, this matchup carries significant weight as the season winds down.
AI Models Lean Towards Cardinals
Top AI sports betting models like BetQL, ESPN, and SportsLine slightly favor the Cardinals, primarily due to their home-field advantage and recent strong performance. The average prediction from these models suggests a 4-3 Cardinals win.
Pythagorean Theorem and Strength of Schedule Offer Nuance
However, a deeper look at the numbers reveals a more complex picture. The Pythagorean theorem, a metric that predicts a team’s winning percentage based on runs scored and allowed, suggests the Mariners are a bit better than their record indicates. Additionally, Seattle has faced a tougher schedule than St. Louis, potentially making them slightly undervalued.
Injuries and Recent Performance
Injuries:
- Mariners:
- Probable: Andres Munoz
- Injured: Jackson Kowar, Gregory Santos, Yimi Garcia, Sam Haggerty, Matt Brash
- Cardinals:
- Injured: Lance Lynn, Drew Rom, Willson Contreras, Keynan Middleton
Standings:
- Mariners: 69-67 (2nd in AL West)
- Cardinals: 68-68 (3rd in NL Central)
Both teams are dealing with key injuries. The Mariners have several pitchers on the injured list, which could impact their bullpen. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are missing some offensive firepower. The Mariners have won 2 of their last 5 games, while the Cardinals have won 4 of their last 5.
Considering the Cardinals’ home-field advantage, recent form, and the Mariners’ pitching woes, a Cardinals win seems likely. However, the Mariners’ underlying metrics and the potential impact of the Cardinals’ injuries cannot be ignored. The final prediction: a close 4-3 Cardinals victory.
Pick: Take the St. Louis Cardinals -115 Moneyline. ***LOSE***
