The New Jersey Devils host the Toronto Maple Leafs on October 10, 2024, at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ, in a game that pits a team with early momentum against one eager to find its footing. After two impressive wins, the Devils, now 2-0-0, are slight favorites with a moneyline of -143, while the Maple Leafs, 0-1-0, will enter as underdogs with a moneyline of +121. With the spread at 1.5 and the total set at 6.5 goals, we’ll take a closer look at the most reliable NHL prediction models, using tools like BetQL and SportsLine, and then compare these predictions with an analysis based on key stats, trends, and my prediction to provide the most informed pick for this matchup.
Game Overview and Initial Analysis
This matchup sets a team off to a strong start in New Jersey against a Toronto team struggling to score early on. In two games, the Maple Leafs have managed only a single goal, with their latest game, a 1-0 loss to the Montreal Canadiens, marking their first shutout since November 2021. Despite 48 shots, they couldn’t find the back of the net, highlighting some challenges in finishing. Meanwhile, New Jersey’s season opener in the Global Series was exceptional, winning both games against the Buffalo Sabres with scores of 4-1 and 3-1.
Toronto’s starting goaltender Dennis Hildeby has shown skill but has faced scoring support issues, while New Jersey’s Jacob Markstrom has been stellar, supporting the Devils’ well-rounded offensive and defensive strategies.
Top NHL Prediction Models Overview
- BetQL: Known for its data-driven approach, BetQL emphasizes team performance, historical matchup trends, and betting odds analysis. BetQL currently favors the Devils with a projected score of around 3.2 to 2.6, noting the Devils’ strong start and goal-scoring abilities.
- SportsLine: SportsLine’s model incorporates a variety of statistical indicators, including team records, player performance metrics, and trends. Their prediction aligns with BetQL, forecasting a 3.1 to 2.7 score in favor of the Devils, noting the strength of New Jersey’s offense.
- MoneyPuck: This model places heavy emphasis on possession statistics, Expected Goals (xG), and shot quality metrics. MoneyPuck’s data suggests a 60% chance of a Devils win, with a projected score of 3-2.
- DailyFaceoff: DailyFaceoff considers factors like starting goaltender performance, injuries, and recent form. Their projection favors the Devils as well, with a projected score of 3-1 due to Markstrom’s high save percentage and Toronto’s goal-scoring struggles.
- Action Network: Known for weighing in on advanced stats, including Fenwick and Corsi, Action Network’s model predicts a 3.5 to 2.5 Devils win, emphasizing New Jersey’s advantage in recent performance and goaltending.
Averaging Model Predictions
The model consensus strongly favors the Devils, given their impressive performance in their first two games. Averaging these models’ projections results in an approximate predicted final score:
- Final Score Prediction (Model Average): New Jersey Devils 3.2, Toronto Maple Leafs 2.4
- Moneyline Result: New Jersey Devils
- Spread Result: New Jersey Devils -1.5
- Total Goals Prediction: Under 6.5 goals
My Prediction – Pythagorean Expectation and Strength of Schedule
Pythagorean Expectation Analysis: Using a Pythagorean expectation based on early goal differential, the Devils show a favorable projected winning percentage given their positive goal margin (+5 across two games). The Maple Leafs’ lack of offensive production and negative goal differential thus far suggests they might struggle against a high-caliber goalie like Markstrom.
Strength of Schedule: New Jersey has faced Buffalo, a team known for its offensive threats, while Toronto faced Montreal and Ottawa, teams not traditionally considered defensive powerhouses. New Jersey’s strong performance against Buffalo highlights the Devils’ resilience and ability to manage offensive-heavy teams, a trait that may prove advantageous against Toronto.
Current Trends and Key Player Analysis:
Both teams are free from injuries, meaning no significant player absences will affect the game. However, recent trends indicate Toronto’s goal-scoring issues and the stellar early performance of New Jersey’s goalie Jacob Markstrom. Toronto’s reliance on Dennis Hildeby, while potentially capable, lacks the consistency seen in Markstrom’s starts, making New Jersey’s goaltending a considerable advantage.
Based on these factors, I project a final score leaning toward a close Devils win:
- My Predicted Final Score: New Jersey Devils 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
- Moneyline Prediction: New Jersey Devils
- Spread Prediction: New Jersey Devils -1.5
- Total Goals Prediction: Under 6.5
Final Prediction and Best Bet
Combining the model projections with my analysis provides the most balanced perspective for a pick:
- Best Pick: New Jersey Devils Moneyline (-143)
- Alternative Bet: Devils -1.5 spread
- Total Goals Prediction: Under 6.5
The Devils have demonstrated solid offensive execution and defensive stability, particularly in goal, while the Maple Leafs face ongoing struggles in goal-scoring. With Markstrom in the net and New Jersey’s home advantage, the Devils have a clear edge.
