LSU @ Ole Miss: SEC conference shootout in Mississippi
The LSU Tigers and the Ole Miss Rebels are two exciting top 25 ranked teams in college football this season. Both teams are coming off of contrasting results in their previous games, and they are both looking to bounce back in this week’s matchup. This will be an SEC conference battle that could go on to define this season for both teams.
LSU is coming off of a close win over Arkansas, while Ole Miss is coming off of a disappointing loss to Alabama. The confidence of LSU coming into this game should be high since they have been winning and playing at a high level. Also since this is a conference game getting this win is huge for both teams.
LSU is led by quarterback Max Johnson, who has been one of the most productive passers in the SEC this season. Johnson has thrown for over 1,600 yards and 12 touchdowns, and he has also been effective running the ball.
The Tigers also have a solid running game, led by running back Tyrion Davis-Price. Davis-Price has rushed for over 400 yards and four touchdowns this season.
On defense, LSU is led by linebacker Damone Clark. Clark is a tackling machine, and he has also been effective in getting after the quarterback.
Ole Miss is led by quarterback Jaxson Dart, who has also been one of the most productive passers in the SEC this season. Dart has thrown for over 1,500 yards and 10 touchdowns, and he has also been effective running the ball.
The Rebels also have a solid running game, led by running back Henry Parrish Jr. Parrish has rushed for over 300 yards and four touchdowns this season.
On defense, Ole Miss is led by linebacker Chance Campbell. Campbell is a tackling machine, and he has also been effective in getting after the quarterback.
Analysis
This game is still a toss-up. Both teams are evenly matched, and they both have the potential to win. LSU has a slight edge on offense, but Ole Miss has a slight edge on defense.
LSU has the better passing attack, and they have a more experienced quarterback in Johnson. However, Ole Miss has a better running game, and they have a more dynamic offense overall.
On defense, LSU has a better pass rush, but Ole Miss has a better run defense. This could be a key factor in the game, as both teams like to run the ball.
Prediction
I predict that LSU will win the game by a score of 31-28. I think that LSU’s passing attack will be too much for Ole Miss’s defense to handle. However, I also think that Ole Miss will be able to run the ball effectively, and they will keep the game close.
Expected Value Betting
Based on my simulation results, I would still recommend betting on LSU -2.5. The expected value of betting on LSU -2.5 is approximately +0.5 units.
EV bet
LSU -2.5
Conclusion
This is a close game that could go either way. I would recommend betting on LSU -2.5, but I would be prepared for the possibility of Ole Miss winning the game.
Confidence level
I am 55% confident in my prediction that LSU will win the game by a score of 31-28.
