Predicting McNeese State vs. NW State with Top Models and Pythagorean Power

Tonight’s clash in Prather Coliseum promises a tale of two teams heading in opposite directions. McNeese State, the favored Cowboys, gallop in with an 8-2 record, while the NW State Demons face the daunting task of overcoming an 0-11 start. But is the 20-point spread truly indicative of the matchup? We’ll delve into the top NCAA basketball betting models, Pythagorean projections, and key factors to unearth the best picks for this intriguing clash.

Top Models Take on the Cowboys and Demons:

1. KenPom: This analytical darling favors McNeese by a hefty 22.5 points, reflecting their strong offensive and defensive metrics.
2. BartTorvik: Echoing KenPom’s sentiment, BartTorvik predicts a 21.5-point McNeese victory, highlighting their superior efficiency and adjusted shooting margin.
3. Sagarin: While less extreme, Sagarin still predicts a comfortable 14-point McNeese win, acknowledging NW State’s slight edge in rebounding rate.
4. ESPN BPI: BPI gives McNeese a 92.1% chance of winning, projecting a 17-point margin based on their robust team strength and home-court advantage.
5. BetQL: The popular betting app gives McNeese a 74% chance of covering the spread, suggesting the 20-point cushion might be slightly inflated.
6. SportsLine: Offering a contrarian perspective, SportsLine predicts a closer game, with McNeese winning by 14.5 points and suggesting potential value in NW State at +20.

Pythagorean Predictions:

Beyond models, the Pythagorean theorem offers a basic scoring projection based on points scored and allowed per game. Applying it to both teams yields:

• McNeese State: Predicted score = 78.2 points (based on 83.4 ppg scored and 65.2 ppg allowed)
• NW State Demons: Predicted score = 62.1 points (based on 61.2 ppg scored and 74.3 ppg allowed)

This translates to a projected McNeese win by 16.1 points, further suggesting the spread might be slightly overinflated.

Key Factors to Consider:

• Home-Court Advantage: McNeese State enjoys a significant home-court edge, boasting a 7-1 record at Prather Coliseum this season.
• Injuries: Both teams arrive relatively healthy, though NW State’s Cambrin Simpson (leading scorer) missed their last game with an ankle injury. His status remains unclear.
• Trends: McNeese has covered the spread in seven of their last ten games, while NW State has covered in five of their last seven.

Combining the Insights:

Averaging the predictions from the top models, the Pythagorean theorem, and your own analysis, here’s a possible take on tonight’s picks:

• Final Score: McNeese State 76.5, NW State Demons 64.2 (slightly lower than both KenPom and BartTorvik, but in line with Sagarin and ESPN BPI)
• Spread: McNeese State -18 (accounting for the home-court advantage and potential overinflation)
• Over/Under: Under 143.5 (both teams favor strong defense, and NW State’s offensive struggles suggest a lower-scoring affair)

PICK: take McNeese State -18