Predators Look to Silence Senators’ Home Crowd

Date: December 7, 2024
Venue: Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON
Odds: Nashville Predators (+107) at Ottawa Senators (-127)
Puck Line: +/-1.5
Total: 6

Team Overview and Standings

The Nashville Predators and Ottawa Senators enter tonight’s game under different circumstances, but both teams are searching for consistency.

• Nashville Predators (7-14-6):
  The Predators sit last in the Central Division with 20 points, struggling offensively with only 60 goals scored this season (32nd in the NHL). Their defensive issues aren’t far behind, with 82 goals allowed. Injuries, including the absence of key player Ryan O’Reilly, have only added to their woes.
• Ottawa Senators (11-12-2):
  The Senators are 6th in the Atlantic Division with 24 points. Despite middling results, Ottawa has shown flashes of promise, scoring 75 goals but conceding 79. With Linus Ullmark between the pipes, they’ll aim to solidify their defense against a Predators squad that lacks scoring firepower.

Home/Away Performance

• Nashville Predators (Away): 3-8-2
  The Predators struggle on the road, with a -18 goal differential. Their lack of offensive punch and below-average penalty kill make it difficult to stay competitive.
• Ottawa Senators (Home): 7-5-1
  The Senators play notably better at home, where their power play excels. Their +5 goal differential at Canadian Tire Centre underscores their ability to capitalize on home-ice advantage.

Special Teams Comparison

• Power Play:
  • Ottawa’s power play (28.05%) is among the league’s best, led by efficient puck movement and timely finishing.
  • Nashville’s power play (20.25%) is middle-of-the-pack, hindered by inconsistent setups and a lack of offensive depth.
• Penalty Kill:
  Both teams share a subpar penalty kill percentage (76.06%). Ottawa’s vulnerability when shorthanded is a concern, especially against high-pressure teams, but Nashville’s underwhelming power play may mitigate this.

Starting Goaltenders

• Juuse Saros (NSH):
  Saros is a proven performer but has struggled this season, reflected in an .895 save percentage. He’ll need to regain his form to keep the Predators competitive against Ottawa’s strong power play.
• Linus Ullmark (OTT):
  Ullmark has also underperformed relative to expectations, with a .881 save percentage. His inconsistency could give Nashville opportunities, even with their limited offensive output.

Key Matchups and Metrics

1. Puck Possession and Face-Offs:
   Nashville holds an edge in face-off percentage, ranking in the top 10 in the league. This could translate to more possession, especially if they can neutralize Ottawa’s offensive surges early.
2. Advanced Metrics:
   • Corsi/Fenwick: Ottawa generates more high-danger scoring chances (HDCF%) compared to Nashville, but their defensive lapses often offset these gains.
   • PDO: Both teams have low PDOs (combination of save percentage and shooting percentage), indicating underperformance and potential regression to the mean.
3. Head-to-Head History:
   In recent matchups, Ottawa has fared better, exploiting Nashville’s defensive struggles. Their speed and transition game have been key factors.

Rest and Schedule

Both teams come in with adequate rest, but travel may slightly affect the Predators. Ottawa’s home comfort and reduced travel make this a minor edge in their favor.

Betting Trends and Line Movement

Public betting trends show a slight lean towards Ottawa (-127), but the moneyline odds indicate a fairly even contest. The total of 6 goals reflects confidence in both teams’ defensive vulnerabilities. No significant line movement has been observed, suggesting balanced action from bettors.

Prediction and Recommended Bets

• Predicted Final Score: Ottawa Senators 4, Nashville Predators 2
• Confidence Level: Medium

Recommended Bet Type:

1. Moneyline – Ottawa Senators (-127):
   Ottawa’s home advantage, superior power play, and offensive depth should prove decisive against a Predators team struggling on both ends.
2. Total Goals – Under 6:
   While both teams are defensively porous, inconsistent goaltending could be mitigated by Nashville’s inability to generate offense.

Player Props and Alternative Lines

• Brady Tkachuk (OTT): Over 3.5 shots on goal
  Tkachuk is a volume shooter who thrives in high-event games. Against Nashville’s leaky defense, he should eclipse this line.
• Juuse Saros (NSH): Over 28.5 saves
  Saros will likely face a barrage from Ottawa, making this a high-probability prop.

Key Factors to Watch

1. Nashville’s Secondary Scoring:
   Without Ryan O’Reilly, the Predators need players like Filip Forsberg to step up.
2. Ottawa’s Defensive Discipline:
   Avoiding penalties will be crucial, even against Nashville’s middling power play.
3. Goaltending Battle:
   Saros and Ullmark have underperformed but possess game-stealing potential.

This matchup offers Ottawa an opportunity to inch closer to .500, while Nashville seeks any spark to reverse their season. Expect the Senators’ balanced attack and home-ice edge to be the difference.

PICK: Ottawa Senators Moneyline -127 (WIN)