Playoff Preview? Star Power on Display as Dodgers Battle Braves in Atlanta

Baseball fans, buckle up! We’re in for a treat as the Los Angeles Dodgers roll into Atlanta to take on the Braves in what promises to be a pitching duel for the ages. Chris Sale, the Braves’ strikeout machine, squares off against Jack Flaherty, who’s been nothing short of spectacular since donning Dodger blue. This matchup has all the makings of an October classic, even if it’s still September.

Let’s dive into the nitty-gritty of this showdown.

Braves: Riding the Sale Wave

Atlanta’s been on a bit of a rollercoaster lately, alternating wins and losses like a pendulum. But when Chris Sale takes the mound, all bets are off. The lanky lefty has been dealing, boasting a 16-3 record with a microscopic 2.38 ERA.

The Braves’ offense, led by the scorching Marcell Ozuna (.306, 37 HR, 98 RBI), has been keeping the scoreboard operators busy. But here’s the kicker – they’ve been playing under the total at home more often than a mole plays underground. Thirteen of their last 14 home games have gone under the total runs line.

Dodgers: Flaherty’s Renaissance

On the other side, we’ve got the Dodgers, who’ve hit a bit of a speed bump, dropping three of their last four. But, Jack Flaherty has been a revelation since joining LA, sporting a 12-6 record with a 2.86 ERA. He’s allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts.

And let’s not forget about Shohei Ohtani. The man’s been batting .290 with 47 homers and 104 RBIs. He’s not just playing baseball; he’s rewriting the rulebook!

The Numbers Game

Now, let’s talk predictions. Five successful MLB models have weighed in, and here’s what they’re saying:

1. FiveThirtyEight MLB Predictions Model: Braves 4.2, Dodgers 3.8
2. The Action Network MLB Model: Braves 4.1, Dodgers 3.7
3. Accuscore MLB Simulation Model: Braves 4.3, Dodgers 3.9
4. TeamRankings Predictive Model: Braves 4.0, Dodgers 3.8
5. NumberFire MLB Projections: Braves 4.2, Dodgers 3.7

Why Dodgers +1.5 is the Smart Play

First off, let’s talk Pythagorean Theorem. Based on runs scored and allowed, the Dodgers (732 runs scored, 612 allowed) have a higher expected win percentage than the Braves (629 runs scored, 567 allowed). This suggests the Dodgers are slightly undervalued in this matchup.

Secondly, Flaherty’s been pitching like a man possessed since joining the Dodgers. His 1.01 WHIP is tighter than a new pair of cleats, and he’s been consistently keeping runs off the board.

Thirdly, while Sale has been dominant, he’s got a bit of a Dodger problem. In his career against LA, he’s 0-1 with a sky-high 10.13 ERA in three appearances. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, but it’s certainly something to keep in mind

Lastly, the Dodgers have been road warriors this season. They’re not intimidated by hostile crowds, and they’ve shown they can keep games close.

The Final Pitch

When the dust settles, I see this game being a nail-biter. Sale will bring the heat, but the Dodgers’ lineup is deeper. They’ll scratch out enough runs to keep it close, even if they don’t pull out the win.

So, here’s my call: Take the Dodgers +1.5. It’s riskier than playing it safe with the under, but in baseball, as in life, sometimes you’ve got to swing for the fences. And with the Dodgers’ firepower, they’re always just a swing away from changing the game.

Remember, folks, baseball is a game of inches, and in this matchup, those inches favor the boys in blue. So get ready for a classic. Play ball!