The New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers are set to face off in a high-stakes showdown on June 2, 2025, in what could be a potential National League playoff preview. Both teams sit atop their respective divisions—the Mets leading the NL East (37-22) and the Dodgers holding the NL West (36-23)—making this a critical midseason battle with significant implications for postseason positioning.
A Battle of Powerhouses
The Mets have been one of the biggest surprises of the 2025 season, riding a balanced attack of strong pitching and timely hitting to the top of the standings. Meanwhile, the Dodgers—despite key injuries to stars like Mookie Betts and Tyler Glasnow—remain a formidable force, thanks to their deep lineup and home-field dominance.
With Paul Blackburn taking the mound for the Mets and Dustin May returning from injury for the Dodgers, this game presents an intriguing pitching matchup. Blackburn has been a steady presence in New York’s rotation, while May’s velocity and stuff make him a wild card in his first start back.
Injury Woes Shake Up the Game
Both teams are dealing with significant injuries, which could play a major role in the outcome. The Mets are without Sean Manaea and Jesse Winker, weakening their rotation depth and bench power. However, the Dodgers’ losses are even more glaring—Betts’ absence leaves a gap in their lineup, while their bullpen is missing Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol, and Blake Treinen, putting extra pressure on May and the middle relievers.
Key Factors to Watch
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Bullpen Strength vs. Fatigue – The Mets’ relievers have been more reliable than the Dodgers’ depleted group. If the game is close late, New York may have the edge.
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Dodgers’ Home Dominance – Despite injuries, Los Angeles has been strong at home, and the Mets will need to overcome the hostile environment of Dodger Stadium.
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Offensive Firepower – Both teams rank in the top 10 in runs scored, meaning this game could turn into a slugfest if the starters struggle early.
Will the Mets’ momentum carry them to a statement win on the road? Or will the Dodgers’ star power, even shorthanded, prove too much at home?
AI Model Predictions
| Model | Projected Score (Mets-Dodgers) | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|
| BetQL | 4.1 – 5.3 | 9.4 |
| ESPN | 3.8 – 5.0 | 8.8 |
| SportsLine | 4.3 – 5.6 | 9.9 |
| PECOTA | 4.0 – 5.2 | 9.2 |
| FanGraphs | 4.2 – 5.4 | 9.6 |
| Average | 4.1 – 5.3 | 9.4 |
Apply Pythagorean Theorem & Strength of Schedule
The Pythagorean Win Expectation formula:
Win%=Runs Scored2Runs Scored2+Runs Allowed2
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Mets:
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Runs Scored: 4.8/game
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Runs Allowed: 3.9/game
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Pythagorean Win%: 60.2%
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Dodgers:
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Runs Scored: 5.1/game
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Runs Allowed: 4.2/game
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Pythagorean Win%: 59.6%
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Strength of Schedule (SoS) Adjustment:
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Mets have faced a tougher schedule (avg. opponent win%: .520)
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Dodgers have faced a slightly easier schedule (avg. opponent win%: .505)
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Adjusting for SoS, Mets have a slight edge in run prevention.
Account for Injuries & Trends
Key Injuries Impact:
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Mets: Missing Sean Manaea (SP depth) and Jesse Winker (batting).
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Dodgers: Missing Tyler Glasnow, Mookie Betts, Blake Snell—huge losses in pitching and offense.
Recent Trends:
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Mets are 7-3 in last 10, Dodgers 5-5.
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Dodgers’ bullpen is depleted (missing Phillips, Graterol, Treinen).
Probable Pitchers Analysis
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Paul Blackburn (Mets): 3.82 ERA (2025), good control but prone to HRs.
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Dustin May (Dodgers): Coming off injury, 4.50 ERA in limited starts.
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Bullpen Edge: Mets have a healthier relief corps.
Predicted Score
AI Models Avg: 4.1 – 5.3 (Dodgers)
Our Adjusted Prediction (Pythagorean + SoS + Injuries):
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Mets 4.5 – Dodgers 4.8 (Total: 9.3)
Betting Recommendation:
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Lean: Over 9 (-110) – Both teams have strong offenses, weaker pitching.
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Value Pick: Mets ML (+140) – Dodgers’ injuries hurt more, Mets’ bullpen edge.
Pick
- Over 9 total runs.
