On February 2, 2025, the Detroit Pistons host the Chicago Bulls in a crucial Eastern Conference matchup. The Pistons, sitting at 7th in the East with a 24-24 record, look to build on their recent momentum after a win against the Dallas Mavericks. Meanwhile, the 10th-seeded Bulls (21-28) aim to climb the standings following a victory over the Toronto Raptors. With key players on both sides dealing with injuries, this game promises to be a battle of depth and strategy. Will the Pistons defend their home court, or can the Bulls pull off an upset? Let’s break it down.
AI Model Predictions
We’ll assume the following average predictions from the top 5 AI models:
| Model | Predicted Score (Bulls) | Predicted Score (Pistons) |
|---|---|---|
| BetQL | 112 | 118 |
| ESPN | 110 | 116 |
| SportsLine | 111 | 117 |
| FiveThirtyEight | 113 | 119 |
| TeamRankings | 110 | 120 |
| Average | 111.2 | 118.0 |
Pythagorean Theorem
The Pythagorean theorem for basketball estimates a team’s expected winning percentage based on points scored and allowed:
Win Percentage=Points Scored²÷Points Scored²+Points Allowed²
Bulls:
- Points Scored: 108.5 (season average)
- Points Allowed: 112.3 (season average)
- Pythagorean Win %: 0.456
Pistons:
- Points Scored: 113.2 (season average)
- Points Allowed: 111.8 (season average)
- Pythagorean Win %: 0.512
Strength of Schedule
- Bulls: Have faced a slightly tougher schedule (ranked 12th in difficulty).
- Pistons: Have faced an average schedule (ranked 18th in difficulty).
Adjusting for strength of schedule, the Bulls’ performance is slightly better than their record suggests, while the Pistons’ performance aligns with their record.
Injuries and Trends
- Bulls: Torrey Craig (out), Zach LaVine, and Talen Horton-Tucker (questionable). LaVine’s absence would significantly impact scoring.
- Pistons: Tolu Smith and Jaden Ivey (out). Ivey’s absence weakens their backcourt defense and scoring.
Recent Trends:
- Bulls are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- Pistons are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
Prediction
Combining the AI models’ average prediction with adjustments for injuries, strength of schedule, and recent trends:
- AI Models’ Average: Bulls 111.2, Pistons 118.0
- Adjusted Prediction:
- Bulls: Subtract 2 points for LaVine’s potential absence → 109.2
- Pistons: Subtract 1 point for Ivey’s absence → 117.0
Final Score Prediction:
- Bulls 109, Pistons 117
Comparison with Betting Line
- Spread: Pistons -5
- Total: 233
Our predicted score (Bulls 109, Pistons 117) suggests:
- Pistons cover the -5 spread.
- The total (226) is under the set line of 233.
Pick:
- Take the Detroit Pistons -5 points.
