Pirates’ Pitching Shines Again? Tigers Seek Redemption in Game 2

The Detroit Tigers (60-41) and Pittsburgh Pirates (40-61) face off in the second game of their midweek series at PNC Park on Tuesday, July 22, 2025. After a 3-0 Pirates shutout victory in the opener, the Tigers will look to bounce back behind Casey Mize, while Pittsburgh aims to ride the momentum with Mitch Keller on the mound.

This matchup presents an intriguing contrast—Detroit sits first in the AL Central, making a strong playoff push, while Pittsburgh languishes in last place in the NL Central, already looking toward the future. Yet, as Monday’s game showed, the Pirates can’t be overlooked, especially at home where they’ve occasionally played spoiler.

Key Storylines Heading Into This Game

1. Tigers Seeking Offensive Rebound

Detroit’s lineup was silenced in Game 1, managing just four hits against Pirates pitching. With key bats like Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene needing to step up, the Tigers must find a way to solve Mitch Keller, who has been inconsistent but capable of dominant outings.

2. Pirates’ Pitching Keeps Them Competitive

Despite their poor record, Pittsburgh’s pitching has kept games close, ranking middle-of-the-pack in team ERA. Keller, while not an ace, has shown flashes of brilliance. If he can limit walks and keep Detroit’s power hitters in check, the Pirates could steal another low-scoring win.

3. Injury Impact on Both Sides

Detroit is missing Kerry Carpenter and Jason Foley, weakening their lineup and bullpen. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is without Jared Jones and Endy Rodriguez, two key contributors. How each team adjusts to these absences could swing the game.

4. Bullpen Fatigue & Late-Game Execution

The Pirates’ relievers were sharp in Game 1, but with a thin bullpen, they may be vulnerable if Keller exits early. Detroit’s pen, while solid, has also been overworked lately. Late-inning execution could decide this one.

What to Watch For

• Can the Tigers’ offense wake up after being shut out?

• Will Mitch Keller outperform Casey Mize, or will Detroit’s pitching stifle Pittsburgh again?

• How much will injuries impact the game’s outcome?

AI Model Predictions

Incorporate My Custom Prediction

My prediction will use:

1. Pythagorean Theorem (Expected Win % based on runs scored/allowed)

   • Tigers: RS = 4.5, RA = 3.7 → Win% = 0.596

   • Pirates: RS = 3.8, RA = 4.9 → Win% = 0.380

   • Implied Score: Tigers 4.4 – Pirates 3.3

2. Strength of Schedule (SoS)

   • Tigers (1st in CENT, strong record vs. weak teams)

   • Pirates (5th in CENT, struggling vs. better teams)

3. Key Factors:

   • Pitching:

     • Casey Mize (DET) – Solid ERA (~3.50), better than Keller lately.

     • Mitch Keller (PIT) – Inconsistent, prone to blowups.

   • Injuries:

     • Tigers missing Carpenter, Foley (key bats/bullpen arms).

     • Pirates missing Jared Jones, Endy Rodriguez (hurts lineup/pitching depth).

   • Trends:

     • Tigers lost 3-0 yesterday, but offense is due for regression.

     • Pirates’ bullpen is overworked.

My Prediction: Tigers 4.3 – Pirates 3.2

Combine AI Models + My Prediction

Pick

• Take the Detroit Tigers -128 Moneyline. ***LOSE***

• Key Notes:

  • Javier Báez (probable) helps Detroit’s defense.

  • Pirates’ lineup lacks power without Jared Jones & Rodriguez.

  • Mize > Keller in current form.