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Date: Friday, July 26, 2024
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Arena: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
Hey there, baseball fans! Let’s chat about tonight’s exciting game between the San Diego Padres and the Baltimore Orioles. If you’re a fan of thrilling matchups, this one promises to keep you on the edge of your seat. We’re diving deep into what makes this game so compelling, from each team’s current form to the starting pitchers’ stats and batting averages. By the end, you’ll see why picking under 9 total runs is a smart move.
Let’s get into it!
The San Diego Padres
The Padres are entering this game on a high note. They’ve just wrapped up a five-game winning streak, capped by a no-hitter from Dylan Cease against the Washington Nationals. This kind of momentum can be a game-changer. Manager Mike Shildt praised the team’s defense and overall performance, emphasizing their collective effort.
Key Player: Dylan Cease
- ERA: 2.98
- WHIP: 1.08
- K/9: 10.4
Cease’s no-hitter has undoubtedly boosted team morale. Although he won’t be starting tonight, his influence on the team’s confidence is significant. The Padres have been formidable on the mound, allowing just four runs in their last five games.
The Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles are looking to bounce back after a mixed post-All-Star break performance. They recently snapped a three-game losing streak with a thrilling 7-6, 10-inning victory over the Miami Marlins. Despite squandering a six-run lead, the Orioles showed resilience in clinching the win.
Key Player: Colton Cowser
- Recent Form: 8-for-20, six-game hitting streak
- Key Stat: Smacked a three-run homer in the last game
Manager Brandon Hyde acknowledged the team’s individual frustrations but emphasized the importance of teamwork. The Orioles’ ability to rally and secure wins, even under pressure, speaks to their determination.
Starting Pitchers
San Diego Padres: Adam Mazur
- ERA: 7.84
- WHIP: 1.65
- Last Outing: 4.2 innings, 5 runs, 7 hits against the Seattle Mariners
Mazur, recalled from Triple-A El Paso, has had a tough season so far. His high ERA and recent struggles indicate potential vulnerabilities. However, the Padres’ recent defensive performances could provide the support Mazur needs to stabilize his game.
Baltimore Orioles: Grayson Rodriguez
- ERA: 3.83
- WHIP: 1.20
- Last Outing: 6 innings, 2 runs, 3 hits against the Texas Rangers
Rodriguez has been solid, winning four of his past five starts. His ability to deliver consistent performances makes him a crucial player for the Orioles. In his rookie season last year, he pitched seven strong innings against the Padres, giving up just one run.
Team Batting Averages
San Diego Padres
- Team Batting Average: .247
- Recent Form: Despite their overall batting average, the Padres have been efficient in capitalizing on scoring opportunities during their winning streak.
Baltimore Orioles
- Team Batting Average: .251
- Recent Form: The Orioles have shown they can rack up runs quickly, as seen in their recent game against the Marlins where they initially built a six-run lead.
Average Total Runs from Models:
To find the average total runs predicted by these models:
- FanGraphs: 8.5
- Baseball Prospectus: 9
- FiveThirtyEight: 8.7
- TeamRankings: 8.8
- SportsLine: 8
Why Picking Under 9 Total Runs Makes Sense
Several factors suggest that this game could be low-scoring:
- Recent Trends: The Padres have seen four of their last six games end in shutouts. They’ve allowed only four runs in their five-game winning streak, demonstrating strong defensive capabilities.
- Starting Pitchers’ Form: While Mazur’s stats may not be impressive, the Padres’ defense has been stellar. On the other hand, Rodriguez’s consistency and past success against the Padres add to the likelihood of a low-scoring game.
- Pythagorean Theorem and Strength of Schedule: Factoring in these elements, the expected total runs align closely with our models’ average of 8.8 runs, which supports the under 9 predictions.
- Other Considerations: There are no major injuries affecting key players, and the weather conditions are expected to be neutral, neither favoring hitters nor pitchers. These conditions typically lead to fewer run-scoring opportunities.
Encouraging the Pick
Given the statistical analysis and current form of both teams, picking under 9 total runs seems like a smart move. The Padres’ recent defensive performances combined with Rodriguez’s solid pitching for the Orioles create a scenario where runs might be at a premium. Moreover, the trend of low-scoring games for the Padres reinforces this prediction.
In conclusion, tonight’s matchup between the San Diego Padres and the Baltimore Orioles is set to be an intriguing battle. With both teams showcasing strong defensive play and solid starting pitchers, the under 9 total runs pick offers a logical and data-supported choice. Enjoy the game, and let’s hope for a tight, well-fought contest!
PICK: under 9 total runs LOSE
