May 19, 2024 at 11:10:00 PM UTC, Truist Park Atlanta, GA
The San Diego Padres head into a doubleheader against the Atlanta Braves on May 20th with a chance to win their fourth straight road series against their rivals. Having secured the first two games 3-1 and 9-1 respectively, the Padres will look to capitalize on their momentum. However, the Braves, despite missing some key hitters, will be determined to even the series, especially with strong pitching matchups lined up.
Top Prediction Models + Score Predictions:
- SportsLine: Padres 3 – Braves 4
- CBS Sports: Padres 2 – Braves 5
- Doc’s Sports: Padres 4 – Braves 3
- Fangraphs: Padres 1 – Braves 6
- Baseball Prospectus: Padres 2 – Braves 4
Padres Offense vs. Braves Pitching:
A key factor to consider is the offensive struggles of the Padres. Despite winning the first two games, they haven’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard. Their team batting average sits at a modest .257, and they’ve only managed 51 home runs so far this season. This could be a challenge against the Braves’ pitching staff, which boasts a solid ERA of 3.46.
Braves Offense vs. Padres Pitching:
On the other side, the Braves’ offense hasn’t been much better, with a team batting average of .251 and 43 home runs. However, they’ll be facing a Padres pitching staff with a slightly higher ERA of 3.99. This suggests a potential pitchers’ duel, especially considering the starting matchups for the doubleheader.
Game 1 Pitching Matchup:
- Padres: Dylan Cease (5-3, 2.45 ERA) – Cease is a strong pitcher with a good K/BB ratio, but he’s coming off a loss to the Rockies. However, he enjoyed success against the Braves in 2023, earning a win with five innings of one-run ball.
- Braves: Reynaldo Lopez (2-1, 1.34 ERA) – An outstanding offseason acquisition for the Braves, Lopez has been exceptional as a starter, not allowing more than three runs in any outing so far.
Game 2 Pitching Matchup:
- Padres: Randy Vasquez (0-2, 6.32 ERA) – Vasquez has been struggling this season, making him a less favorable matchup for the Padres.
- Braves: Chris Sale (6-1, 2.54 ERA) – Sale has been on fire lately, winning his last five starts and putting up impressive scoreless innings. He also boasts a stellar record against the Padres, going 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his career starts against them.
Injuries:
The injury bug has hit both teams, with the Padres missing key players like Joe Musgrove and Tucupita Marcano. The Braves will be without sluggers Austin Riley and Sean Murphy, but catcher Travis d’Arnaud might return for Game 1.
Why Under 7.5 Runs Might Be the Best Bet:
Considering the strong pitching matchups, particularly Chris Sale in Game 2, and the slightly below-average offensive performances from both teams, the total runs for the doubleheader might be lower than expected. The oddsmakers have set the over/under at 7.5 runs, and based on the current form and matchups, going under 7.5 runs might be a safer bet.
Conclusion:
The Padres-Braves doubleheader promises to be a tightly contested battle. While the Padres have momentum, the Braves’ pitching staff is a formidable force. With key players missing on both sides and the potential for dominant pitching performances, a low-scoring doubleheader seems more likely. So, while the Padres aim to make another statement on the road, bettors will find better value by taking the under on the total in game 2 of this doubleheader.
Pick: Under 7.5 Game 2 Only
