Tuesday, May 21, 2024 at 8:00pm EDT, TD Garden Boston, MA
The stage is set for a thrilling Eastern Conference Finals matchup between the high-octane Indiana Pacers and the Boston Celtics. Both teams boast potent offenses, leading many to expect a high-scoring affair. However, a closer look at the factors at play suggests a more defensive-oriented game, making the under on the total points a potentially safer bet.
Top Prediction Models:
- FiveThirtyEight: Pacers 107 – Celtics 114 (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/)
- ESPN BPI: Pacers 109 – Celtics 111 (https://www.espn.com/nba/bpi)
- The Ringer NBA Prediction Model: Pacers 109 – Celtics 112 (https://nbarankings.theringer.com/playoff-odds)
- BettingPros NBA Model Consensus: Pacers 108 – Celtics 110 (https://www.bettingpros.com/nba/)
- SportsLine NBA Model Projection: Pacers 106 – Celtics 113 (https://www.sportsline.com/nba/picks/)
Pacers: A Well-Oiled Scoring Machine
The Indiana Pacers enter the series as the NBA’s regular season scoring leaders, averaging a whopping 123.3 points per game. Their offensive depth is impressive, with multiple players consistently dropping 15+ points. Pascal Siakam’s mid-season arrival further bolstered their firepower, and their record-breaking 67.1% shooting performance in Game 7 against the Knicks is a testament to their offensive capabilities.
Celtics: A Defensive Force with Firepower
While the Celtics might not match the raw scoring numbers of the Pacers, they shouldn’t be underestimated. They boast a strong defensive unit, evidenced by their 44.9 rebounds per game compared to the Pacers’ 40.9. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are a proven scoring duo, averaging over 23 points each in the playoffs.
Why the Under on Total Points Might Be a Savvy Pick
Several factors suggest a more controlled, lower-scoring game than what the regular season numbers might indicate:
- Playoff Adjustments: The playoffs are a different beast. Teams tighten up defensively, focusing on executing schemes and exploiting weaknesses. Expect both teams to prioritize defense, especially early in the series.
- Loss of Porzingis for Boston: The Celtics’ center, Kristaps Porzingis, will miss at least the first two games with a calf injury. His absence weakens Boston’s interior defense and potentially disrupts their defensive rotations. However, it could also force them to play a smaller, faster lineup, focusing on perimeter defense and potentially slowing down the pace.
- Pacers Facing a Tougher Defense: The Pacers haven’t faced a defense as stout as Boston’s all season. The Celtics will likely make them work harder for their points, leading to a more controlled offensive effort from Indiana.
The X-Factors: Coaching and Momentum
Coaching will be crucial in this series. Both teams have excellent coaches in Brad Stevens for Boston and Rick Carlisle for Indiana. The coach who makes the better adjustments and exploits the opponent’s weaknesses will gain a significant edge.
The Pacers are riding high on their Game 7 win and overall playoff success. Their momentum and confidence could lead to an aggressive offensive approach early on. However, the Celtics will be eager to defend their home court and establish their dominance in the series opener.
The Verdict: Expect a Tightly Contested Battle
While both teams possess potent offenses, the playoff atmosphere, Boston’s defense, and the absence of Porzingis suggest a more controlled, defensive-oriented game. The Pacers might not replicate their regular-season scoring outbursts, and the Celtics might struggle to exploit Indiana’s depth without their full defensive presence. Considering these factors, the under on the total points (set at 221.5) might be a safer bet for this Eastern Conference Finals opener.
Pick: Under 221.5
