Tonight’s matchup at PNC Park between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Pittsburgh Pirates presents an intriguing betting opportunity, particularly for the Over 7 runs. While both teams feature talented young aces on the mound, a deeper dive into their offensive trends, bullpen vulnerabilities, and situational factors suggests that runs will be scored. Let’s break down why betting the Over is a calculated and smart decision for savvy bettors.
The Pitching Duel: A Closer Look
On the surface, a pitching duel between Paul Skenes and Freddy Peralta might deter some from an Over bet. Both have impressive ERAs, with Skenes boasting a 2.44 and Peralta a 2.59. However, the numbers don’t tell the full story.
Paul Skenes (Pirates): The Unlucky Ace
Skenes has been nothing short of dominant at times, exemplified by his seven hitless innings against the Brewers earlier this season. His 3.88 SO/BB ratio and 0.94 WHIP speak to his ability to limit baserunners and strike out batters. However, Skenes has been a victim of his team’s anemic offense. The Pirates have scored four runs or fewer in 26 consecutive games, a major-league-record-tying streak that only just ended in their 8-5 loss to the Brewers on Thursday. This means that despite Skenes’ brilliance, the Pirates often find themselves in low-scoring affairs where even a single run allowed can be the difference.
Crucially, the Pirates have lost the last four games Skenes started, including a 1-0 heartbreaker where he went eight innings, allowed just one run, and still took the loss. This lack of run support can put immense pressure on a young pitcher and, combined with the Pirates’ recent offensive uptick (scoring 5 runs last night), suggests a potential for regression or at least some early run scoring opportunities for Milwaukee. Skenes is still learning and adapting at the big-league level, and a strong Brewers offense could test his mettle, particularly early in the game as he settles in.
Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Consistent, But Not Invincible
Peralta has been a marvel of durability for the Brewers, consistently taking the mound and posting solid numbers. His 2.59 ERA and 2.85 SO/BB ratio are indicative of a strong season. However, Peralta has shown some uneven results since tweaking his groin on May 4th. While he avoided a serious injury, he gave up four runs and three walks in his subsequent start at Cleveland. He bounced back well against Minnesota, but the underlying concern of a nagging injury or slightly diminished effectiveness could surface against a motivated Pirates lineup, especially if they can get to him early.
Moreover, Peralta’s career numbers against the Pirates are not as dominant as his overall 2025 stats. He’s 2-2 with a 3.55 ERA in 22 career appearances (13 starts) against Pittsburgh, and his ERA at PNC Park is even higher at 3.63 in nine starts. This suggests that the Pirates, despite their offensive struggles, have shown some ability to get to Peralta in the past.
Offensive Outlook: Heating Up
Milwaukee Brewers: Potent and Diverse
The Brewers boast a dynamic offense that can score runs in multiple ways. While Christian Yelich was in a slump, his two-homer, four-RBI performance on Thursday is a clear indicator he might be breaking out. Yelich’s ability to drive the ball out of the park is a significant threat, and his return to form would be a massive boost for the Brewers’ run-scoring potential. The Brewers’ overall offense has been strong in 2024, evidenced by their 103 wRC+, ranking them 12th in MLB. They also lead the league in stolen bases with an aggressive approach on the basepaths, which can lead to manufactured runs even when big hits aren’t flying. This aggressiveness puts pressure on opposing defenses and can force errors, contributing to runs.
Their road splits also indicate a more potent offense away from home, with a .260 AVG and .410 SLG on the road compared to .236 AVG and .396 SLG at home. This bodes well for their ability to put up runs at PNC Park.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Flashes of Life
While the Pirates’ offense has been historically bad, Thursday’s five-run outburst against the Brewers should not be dismissed. It ended a truly awful streak and could signal a turning point. The return of Nick Gonzales (expected back by May 27) and Endy Rodriguez (expected back by May 23) from injury could provide a much-needed spark to their lineup in the near future, although they are not confirmed for this game. While their overall wRC+ of 86 is among the worst in the league, the psychological boost of snapping their scoring drought could lead to a more relaxed and effective offensive approach.
Furthermore, the Pirates have a respectable home batting average of .238, higher than their road average of .230, suggesting they feel more comfortable at PNC Park.
Bullpen Battle: Where the Runs Will Flow
Even if the starting pitchers are effective through the first few innings, the bullpens are where the Over really shines.
Milwaukee Brewers Bullpen: Solid, But Not Immaculate
The Brewers bullpen has been one of the best in baseball in 2024, boasting a 3.11 ERA, ranking them second in the league. However, even the best bullpens have off nights, and injuries can create cracks. While key relievers like Trevor Megill and Devin Williams have been excellent, the sheer volume of games means that even top-tier arms can be susceptible to giving up runs. The Brewers will want to preserve their top arms if possible, which could lead to some middle-relief options being used who are not quite as dominant.
Pittsburgh Pirates Bullpen: A Cause for Concern
In contrast to the Brewers, the Pirates bullpen has been a significant weakness. Their 2024 bullpen ERA stands at 4.49, placing them 20th in MLB. They have several key relievers on the injured list, including Tim Mayza (shoulder), Dauri Moreta (elbow), and Colin Holderman (thumb), all expected to be out for extended periods. This thins out their relief corps considerably and puts a heavy burden on the remaining arms, many of whom are not high-leverage specialists. This lack of depth and quality means that once Skenes exits the game, there’s a strong likelihood of runs being scored against the Pirates’ relief pitchers.
Situational Factors and Trends
- PNC Park Weather: The forecast for Friday in PNC Park is partly cloudy with a high of 13°C (55°F) and 26 km/h (16 mph) winds blowing from the west. While not overtly warm, the wind could potentially help carry fly balls, especially to the spacious right field.
- Series Dynamics: The Brewers just won the first game of the series 8-5, showcasing their ability to score against Pittsburgh. The Pirates, having snapped their historically bad scoring streak, will be looking to carry that offensive momentum forward.
- Betting Market Adjustment: With two strong starting pitchers, the total might be set a bit lower than it should be, creating value on the Over. The public perception of a pitching duel might suppress the line, making the Over a smart contrarian play.
Conclusion: The Over’s Allure
While Paul Skenes and Freddy Peralta are undoubtedly talented arms, a closer examination reveals compelling reasons to back the Over 7 runs. The Brewers’ potent offense, led by a potentially resurgent Christian Yelich and an aggressive base-running philosophy, is capable of putting up runs against any starter. The Pirates, coming off a much-needed offensive breakout, will be looking to build on that momentum and could surprise by getting to Peralta.
However, the real tipping point for the Over lies in the bullpens. The Pirates’ bullpen is significantly weakened by injuries and has a high ERA, making them a prime target for the Brewers’ bats once Skenes departs. Even the solid Brewers bullpen can have its moments, and if the game stays tight, the late innings could easily see runs scored against them as well.
Considering the offensive firepower of the Brewers, the recent uptick in Pirates’ scoring, and the clear bullpen disparity, taking the Over 7 is not just a gamble, but a well-reasoned and calculated decision. This game has all the ingredients for a higher-scoring affair than the initial pitching matchup might suggest.
Pick: Over 7
