On December 19, 2024, the Ottawa Senators will take on the Calgary Flames at Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, Alberta. This game is pivotal for both teams as they look to gain traction in their respective playoff races. Ottawa enters the contest with a record of 16-13-2, while Calgary holds a slightly worse mark of 15-11-6. Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, and understanding these dynamics will be crucial in forecasting the outcome of this matchup.
Team Overview and Current Form
The Ottawa Senators are currently riding a four-game winning streak, an impressive run that has helped elevate them within the highly competitive Atlantic Division. Offensively, the Senators have been productive, scoring 96 goals this season, but they’ve also been quite resilient defensively, conceding just 88 goals. Their power play has been particularly effective, clicking at a 25.71% rate, which ranks among the league’s best. Despite their strong offensive numbers, their penalty kill has been a weak point at just 77.27%.
In contrast, the Calgary Flames have struggled with consistency, as evidenced by their 3-4-3 record over their last 10 games. While they’ve scored 84 goals this season, their defensive issues are evident, having allowed 98 goals. The Flames’ power play has been average at 20.93%, but their penalty kill has been a significant issue, operating at just 72.92%. This discrepancy could play a major role in their chances of success against the Senators.
Goaltending Situation
Ottawa will rely on Linus Ullmark, who has been a rock in net, offering stability and consistency. He’ll need to continue his strong performances to keep the Senators’ winning streak alive. On the other side, Calgary will start Dan Vladar, who has shown flashes of potential but has struggled at times this season. The goaltending matchup heavily favors Ottawa, given Ullmark’s track record and current form.
Home vs. Away Performance
Looking at each team’s home and away performances, the Senators have been solid on the road with a 9-7-1 record, indicating their ability to perform away from home. Conversely, the Flames have a better home record of 9-5-4, but their recent struggles suggest they may be vulnerable at home, especially given their defensive issues.
Special Teams Analysis
Ottawa’s power play is one of the most potent in the league, and with a 25.71% conversion rate, they have the ability to make an impact with the extra man. This could prove crucial against a Flames penalty kill that is ranked 30th in the league, allowing goals on nearly 27% of opponent power plays. On the other hand, Calgary’s power play has been average at 20.93%, but with a penalty kill as ineffective as theirs, Ottawa should expect to capitalize on power play opportunities.
Coaching and Strategies
Ottawa’s head coach, DJ Smith, has built a team that plays a balanced style, focusing on strong defensive play and efficient counter-attacking. His emphasis on special teams could play a pivotal role in this game. For Calgary, Darryl Sutter, known for his defensive-minded approach, will need to make adjustments, especially given his team’s struggles with both the penalty kill and defensive zone coverage. The Flames will need to tighten up defensively and find a way to generate more offense to keep pace with Ottawa.
Head-to-Head History and Key Matchups
In recent matchups, Ottawa has had the upper hand against Calgary, winning 6 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. The most notable trend is the Senators’ success in shutting down Calgary’s offense. As both teams have had their share of injury issues, the absence of key players like Andrei Kuzmenko for the Flames could limit their offensive options.
A key matchup to watch is the battle between Ottawa’s top scoring forwards, including Brady Tkachuk, and Calgary’s defense, which has shown lapses throughout the season. Ottawa’s ability to exploit Calgary’s defensive weaknesses could be a game-changer.
Advanced Metrics and Possession Stats
Looking at advanced stats, Ottawa holds a slight edge in terms of possession metrics. The Senators’ Corsi for percentage (CF%) is higher, suggesting they are the more aggressive team when it comes to controlling the puck. This will be important in dictating the pace of the game. The Flames’ Corsi and Fenwick numbers show that they are more susceptible to extended periods of defensive zone time, which plays into Ottawa’s hands.
Both teams have similar PDO figures, indicating that neither is particularly lucky or unlucky in terms of puck bounces. However, Ottawa’s higher shooting percentage and power play efficiency should give them an edge when the game is close.
Rest and Schedule
Ottawa enters this game well-rested, having had a few days off since their last contest. On the other hand, Calgary’s recent schedule has been demanding, which could result in some fatigue for the Flames. The Senators will look to take advantage of this, especially in the second half of the game when fatigue typically sets in.
Strength of Schedule and Recent Opponents
The Senators have faced a slightly more difficult schedule recently, but their strong performance against tough opponents suggests that they are battle-tested and ready for this matchup. Meanwhile, Calgary has struggled against top-tier teams, further highlighting their defensive vulnerabilities.
Betting Trends and Line Movement
With the Senators coming in as road favorites at -133 and the Flames as underdogs at +112, the betting market shows confidence in Ottawa’s ability to win. The over/under for this game is set at 5.5, which seems reasonable given both teams’ offensive and defensive performances.
The puck line is set at -1.5 for Ottawa, and considering the Flames’ struggles, this is a viable option for bettors looking for value.
Prediction and Recommended Bet
Predicted Final Score: Ottawa 4, Calgary 2
Confidence Level: High
Recommended Bet: Ottawa moneyline (-133) or puck line (-1.5)
Player Prop: Brady Tkachuk to score a goal
Given Ottawa’s current form, superior special teams, and overall better depth, they are the team to back in this matchup. The Senators should be able to control the game both offensively and defensively, leading to a relatively comfortable victory. The Flames will struggle to contain Ottawa’s offensive firepower, particularly on special teams.
