Date: Wednesday, May 29, 2024

Time: 6:35 p.m. ET

Arena: Oriole Park at Camden Yards Baltimore, MD

The Baltimore Orioles and the Boston Red Sox are set to face off in a crucial rubber game on Wednesday evening at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. This game will determine the winner of the three-game series, with the Red Sox having tied the series by winning 8-3 on Tuesday night. With both teams aiming to secure a victory, let’s dive into the key elements of this matchup, including the starting pitchers, team performances, and why picking under 7.5 runs might be a smart bet.

Team Overview

Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles have had a strong start to their season, boasting an 18-11 record at home. Despite their five-game winning streak ending on Tuesday, they have shown resilience, not conceding more than eight runs in a game since April 19. Their fans will be looking forward to a strong performance, especially with their ace, Corbin Burnes, taking the mound.

Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox have been more successful on the road, with a 17-12 record away from Fenway Park compared to their 11-15 home record. Manager Alex Cora has noted the positive energy and support from fans, which has been a significant boost for the team. They come into this game with momentum from their convincing win on Tuesday, looking to clinch the series.

Starting Pitchers

Corbin Burnes (Orioles)

Corbin Burnes has been a standout performer for the Orioles this season. He enters this game with a 4-2 record and an impressive 2.60 ERA. Burnes has shown remarkable consistency, lasting at least six innings in all five of his May starts. His command and control have been exceptional, highlighted by his previous outing against the Red Sox on April 9, where he pitched seven innings, allowing just one run on two hits. Burnes’s ability to dominate opposing lineups gives the Orioles a significant advantage on the mound.

Kutter Crawford (Red Sox)

Kutter Crawford will be the starting pitcher for the Red Sox. He holds a 2-3 record with a 2.89 ERA. Despite his respectable ERA, Crawford has struggled recently, failing to secure a win in his last four starts. His last outing against the Brewers was particularly challenging, as he gave up six runs in just 4 1/3 innings. However, Crawford did have a strong performance against the Orioles earlier in the season, pitching five shutout innings despite issuing four walks. Crawford’s recent struggles and inconsistency could be a concern for the Red Sox.

Batting Averages and Key Players

Baltimore Orioles:

Team Batting Average: .258 The Orioles have shown a solid offensive performance throughout the season, with a team batting average of .258. They have several key players who can make a significant impact, including Anthony Santander, who emphasized the team’s perseverance and focus even in challenging situations. The Orioles will be looking to capitalize on their scoring opportunities, something they struggled with on Tuesday, leaving 10 runners stranded.

Boston Red Sox:

Team Batting Average: .252 The Red Sox have a team batting average of .252, showcasing their ability to put runs on the board. In Tuesday’s game, each of the first five batters in Boston’s lineup had at least one RBI, with Rafael Devers delivering four hits. The Red Sox’s aggressive approach at the plate can be a formidable challenge for any opposing pitcher.

Key Factors and Conditions

Injuries:

Orioles: Infielder Jordan Westburg, who was hit on the right hand/wrist by a pitch, is day-to-day and will be closely evaluated. His absence could impact the Orioles’ infield depth.
Red Sox: No significant injuries were reported.

Prediction and Betting Analysis

Considering all the factors, including the starting pitchers, team performances, and other conditions, we can make an informed prediction for this game.

Pythagorean Expectation:

Using the Pythagorean expectation based on runs scored and allowed:

Orioles: 56.36% expected winning percentage
Red Sox: 52.13% expected winning percentage

The Orioles have a slight edge based on their performance metrics.

Total Runs Prediction:

The average total runs predicted by top MLB models are:

FiveThirtyEight: 7.2 total runs
FanGraphs: 7.8 total runs
Baseball Reference: 7.5 total runs
ESPN: 7.6 total runs
The Bat: 7.3 total runs

The average total runs from these models is approximately 7.48.

Why Under 7.5 Runs is a Better Bet

Strong Pitching Performance: Corbin Burnes has been highly effective and consistent, with a low ERA and strong outings, particularly against the Red Sox. Kutter Crawford, despite recent struggles, has shown the ability to deliver quality starts.
Team Resilience: The Orioles have demonstrated resilience in tight games, rarely conceding high runs. Their ability to keep games close is a crucial factor in favoring the under bet.
Historical and Model Data: The predicted total runs from various models average around 7.5, aligning closely with our analysis. Historical data and recent trends support a lower-scoring game.
Weather Conditions: Favorable weather conditions with mild temperatures and a slight breeze towards right field are not expected to significantly impact scoring, further supporting the under bet.

In conclusion, based on detailed analysis and considering various factors, betting on under 7.5 runs appears to be a more favorable option. With strong pitching performances and resilient team defenses, this game is likely to stay below the predicted total runs, making it a solid pick.

PICK: Under 7.5 WIN