Monday, May 27, 2024 at 1:05pm EDT, Oriole Park at Camden Yards Baltimore, MD
The Baltimore Orioles return home after a challenging but successful 4-3 road trip to face their American League East rivals, the Boston Red Sox, in a three-game series starting today. While both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, the matchup presents an intriguing opportunity for offense, potentially making the over/under of 9 total runs a tempting bet.
Prediction Models:
Here are some successful MLB prediction models to consider:
- PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus): Orioles 5.2 Runs, Red Sox 4.8 Runs (Total: 10 Runs)
- SaberSim (Baseball Prospectus): Runs not directly predicted, simulates win probability. (Use SaberSim’s win probability to adjust the other models’ total runs slightly)
- FanGraphs ZiPS: Orioles 5.4 Runs, Red Sox 4.6 Runs (Total: 10 Runs)
- Run differential models: Orioles 5.1 Runs, Red Sox 4.3 Runs (Total: 9.4 Runs)
- Vegas odds: Implied total runs vary slightly by sportsbook, but aiming for an average: Orioles 4.9 Runs, Red Sox 4.5 Runs (Total: 9.4 Runs)
Baltimore Orioles: Resilience and Recent Success
The Orioles enter this series with momentum, having won four out of their last seven games. They’ve overcome numerous weather delays on their road trip, showcasing their mental toughness under Brandon Hyde’s leadership. Their success can’t be solely attributed to pitching, as their offense has been putting up runs consistently. Currently, the Orioles boast a team batting average of .268, ranking them 9th in the MLB. Adley Rutschman, their young catcher and designated hitter, has been a spark plug, driving in seven RBIs in the Chicago series alone.
However, their starting pitcher for today’s game, Cole Irvin (4-2, 3.15 ERA), has a concerning track record against Boston. In his six career outings against the Red Sox, he holds a 0-1 record with a hefty 5.16 ERA. This could be a point of vulnerability for Baltimore, especially considering Irvin’s recent struggles out of the bullpen.
Boston Red Sox: Pitching Strength and Road Warriors
Despite some inconsistencies, the Red Sox shouldn’t be underestimated. Their starting pitching has been a bright spot, with a team ERA of 3.92, ranking 12th in the league. Today’s starter, Cooper Criswell (2-1, 2.86 ERA), has been a key contributor, leading the team to victories in five of his last six outings. Notably, he has yet to face the Orioles in his career, which could be an advantage if he can locate his pitches effectively.
Offensively, the Red Sox haven’t been as dominant as Baltimore, holding a team batting average of .252 (17th in MLB). However, the absence of outfielder Tyler O’Neill due to a knee injury could further dampen their offensive output.
A Look at the Numbers: Why the Over Makes Sense
While Irvin’s history against Boston suggests potential struggles, his overall ERA of 3.15 indicates he’s a capable pitcher. Criswell, on the other hand, boasts a lower ERA of 2.86, but his lack of experience against the Orioles adds a layer of uncertainty.
Offensively, both teams have shown flashes of brilliance. The Orioles’ .268 team batting average could exploit any weaknesses in Irvin’s pitching, while the Red Sox, despite missing O’Neill, still possess dangerous hitters.
Furthermore, the various prediction models mentioned earlier all suggest a high-scoring game. PECOTA and ZiPS predict a combined score of 10 runs, while run differential models and Vegas odds average around 9.4 runs. This statistical data reinforces the notion that this game could be a slugfest.
Conclusion: A Close Game with High Scoring Potential
While the Red Sox’s starting pitching might give them a slight edge, the Orioles’ home field advantage and recent success against Boston even the odds. This matchup is likely to be a close one, but with both teams capable of putting up runs, the over/under of 9 total runs seems like a more appealing bet. The combination of Baltimore’s hot bats and potential struggles from Irvin, coupled with Boston’s ability to hit despite missing O’Neill, suggests a game that could surpass the 9-run threshold.
Pick: Over 9 runs Lose
