The Baltimore Orioles continue to struggle through a disappointing 2025 season as they head to Milwaukee to take on the Brewers in the third game of their midweek series. The Orioles now sit at 15-32, one of the worst records in baseball, while the Brewers (24-25) look to climb back to .500 and stay in the NL Central race.

Baltimore’s Struggles Run Deep

The Orioles’ season has been derailed by injuries, inconsistency, and underperformance. Key players like Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, and Jordan Westburg are sidelined, leaving gaping holes in both the rotation and lineup. The pitching staff has been particularly vulnerable, ranking near the bottom of the league in ERA, while the offense has failed to generate enough run support.

Tonight, veteran right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano takes the mound, hoping to stabilize a rotation that has been in flux all year. Sugano, who has had mixed results since coming over from Japan, will need his best stuff against a Brewers lineup that has shown flashes of power.

Milwaukee Looking to Build Momentum

The Brewers haven’t been dominant this season, but they’ve remained competitive in a tight NL Central. Their pitching staff has been hit hard by injuries, with Brandon Woodruff, DL Hall, and Nestor Cortes all out, but Chad Patrick gets the nod tonight after some solid outings. Patrick won’t overpower hitters, but he’s been effective at limiting damage—something the Brewers will need against an Orioles team that, despite its struggles, still has some dangerous bats.

Offensively, Milwaukee has relied on timely hitting rather than overwhelming firepower. Players like William Contreras and Rhys Hoskins have carried the load, but the lineup lacks depth, making consistency an issue. If they can capitalize on Baltimore’s pitching woes, they could take control early.

Key Factors to Watch

Bullpen Woes: Both teams have shaky relief pitching, so late-inning execution could decide the game.
Injury Impact: The Orioles’ depleted roster puts extra pressure on their remaining stars to produce.
Home Field Edge: The Brewers are tougher at American Family Field, where they’ve played better baseball this season.

Will the Orioles Show Life, or Will the Brewers Roll Again?

Baltimore is in desperate need of a spark, but Milwaukee has the pitching advantage and momentum. Can the Orioles pull off an upset, or will the Brewers secure another home win?

Simulated AI Model Averages

BetQL: Brewers 5.1 – Orioles 3.8
ESPN: Brewers 4.7 – Orioles 3.5
SportsLine: Brewers 4.9 – Orioles 3.6
FiveThirtyEight: Brewers 4.5 – Orioles 3.4
SharpSide AI: Brewers 5.0 – Orioles 3.7

Average AI Prediction:

Brewers 4.84 – Orioles 3.6

My Custom Prediction (Pythagorean + Strength of Schedule + Adjustments)

1. Pythagorean Win Expectation

Orioles: 15-32 (Run Diff: -58) → Expected Win% ≈ 0.347
Brewers: 24-25 (Run Diff: -3) → Expected Win% ≈ 0.486

2. Strength of Schedule (SoS) Adjustment

Orioles’ Opponents Avg Win%: ~0.520 (Tough schedule)
Brewers’ Opponents Avg Win%: ~0.490 (Average schedule)
Adjusted Win%:
- Orioles: Slightly better than record suggests (~0.38)
- Brewers: About accurate (~0.49)

3. Starting Pitcher Comparison

Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL): Struggling in MLB (simulated ERA ~5.40)
Chad Patrick (MIL): Decent mid-rotation arm (simulated ERA ~4.10)
Edge: Brewers

4. Injuries & Lineup Impact

Orioles Missing: Key bats (Kyle Bradish, Tyler O’Neill, Jordan Westburg) hurt offense.
Brewers Missing: Mostly pitching depth (Nestor Cortes, DL Hall), but lineup intact.

5. Recent Trends

Brewers just won 5-2 vs. Orioles (momentum edge).
Orioles are 3-7 in last 10, Brewers 5-5.

Final Custom Score Prediction:

Brewers 5.2 – Orioles 3.3

Combined Prediction (AI Average + My Model)

Model	Brewers Runs	Orioles Runs
AI Avg	4.84	3.6
My Model	5.2	3.3
Combined Avg	5.02	3.45

Final Projected Score:

Brewers 5 – Orioles 3.5 (Round to 5-4 or 5-3)

Betting Recommendation

Moneyline: Brewers -126 (Strong value, ~60% implied win probability)
Total (8.5): Under (Projected ~8 runs)
Key Factors:
- Brewers’ pitching advantage with Chad Patrick.
- Orioles’ depleted lineup & bullpen struggles.
- AI consensus & custom model agree on Brewers win.

Pick:

Take the Milwaukee Brewers -126 money line.