Baseball’s a game of numbers, and for savvy bettors, those numbers tell a compelling story. As the Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles prepare for the second game of their three-game series on Saturday, June 14, 2025, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, a deep dive into the statistics and situational factors points to one clear, calculated wager: the Under 9 total runs.
Friday night’s opener, a 2-0 Orioles victory marred by two weather delays, offered a glimpse into the potential for a low-scoring affair. While the weather might clear up, the pitching matchup and offensive trends strongly suggest runs will be at a premium once again. Let’s break down why this is a prime opportunity for a profitable Under bet.
The Angels: Searching for Offensive Spark
The Los Angeles Angels arrive in Baltimore having experienced a mixed bag of results recently. Before Friday’s shutout, they had won three straight and five of their last six games, indicating some positive momentum. However, being blanked six times this season, including the opener against the Orioles, highlights a recurring issue: offensive inconsistency.
Their team batting average in 2025 sits at a paltry .227, ranking 27th in MLB. Against right-handed pitching, which they will face in Tomoyuki Sugano, their average drops slightly to .229. While they do have power hitters like Mike Trout and Jo Adell, the overall lineup struggles to generate consistent offense. They rank 20th in runs scored with 285 on the season.
A key player to watch for the Angels is Christian Moore, their 2024 first-round draft pick (8th overall) who made his MLB debut on Friday. The 22-year-old second baseman went 0-for-3 with a strikeout, a somewhat inauspicious start. While he mashed at Triple-A Salt Lake (.350 average with 4 homers and 18 RBIs in 20 games), the jump to the majors is significant, and he’ll likely need time to adjust. Expecting immediate offensive fireworks from him might be premature, especially against a solid major league pitcher.
On the mound for the Angels is LHP Tyler Anderson (2-3, 3.99 ERA). Anderson has struggled to find a consistent rhythm this season, going winless in his last nine starts, with his last victory coming on April 18. More concerningly for his backers, he hasn’t completed five innings in either of his June starts. His career numbers against the Orioles (0-2 with a 3.60 ERA in three starts) suggest they can hit him, but it’s important to note that in his last outing against Baltimore on May 11, only one of the three runs he surrendered in five innings was earned. His current WHIP of 1.31 and SO/BB ratio of 2.11 indicate he allows a fair number of baserunners. If he can limit the hard contact, he can keep the game close, but his recent form raises questions about his ability to go deep into the game.
The Angels’ bullpen, with a 24th-ranked ERA of 4.76 (or 5.46 depending on the stat source, both are high), presents a potential weak point if Anderson falters early. However, in a low-scoring game, even an average bullpen can hold the line if the scoring opportunities are limited from the start.
The Orioles: Pitching Prowess and Offensive Struggles Against Lefties
The Baltimore Orioles, despite a recent managerial change and a somewhat disappointing start to the season (27-40), are showing signs of improvement and have jumped three spots in recent MLB Power Rankings. Their strong pitching was on full display in Friday’s 2-0 win, and that’s a trend that should continue Saturday.
Starting for the Orioles is RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (5-4, 3.23 ERA). The rookie from Japan has been a pleasant surprise for Baltimore, showcasing excellent control with a 3.50 SO/BB ratio and a solid 1.10 WHIP. He’s already proven his ability to shut down the Angels, earning a win against them on May 9 where he tossed 7 1/3 innings of three-hit, no-walk baseball with five strikeouts. His ability to go deep into games and limit baserunners will be crucial in keeping the score low.
While the Orioles’ offense showed some life with two solo homers on Friday, their overall performance against left-handed pitching this year has been a notable weakness. Their batting average against lefties sits at a paltry .202, a significant factor when facing Tyler Anderson. Interim manager Tony Mansolino explicitly stated, “The players, everyone’s working on it hard. There’s probably some solutions down the pipeline, too. … We’ve got to be better.” This admission suggests a recognized struggle that isn’t easily fixed overnight. Key hitters like Jackson Holliday and Ryan O’Hearn have decent averages, but the team as a whole struggles to string hits together against southpaws.
Baltimore’s bullpen has been more effective than the Angels’, with a team bullpen ERA of 4.66. While not elite, they have reliable arms, notably closer Félix Bautista, who earned his 12th save on Friday and impressed with his velocity. If Sugano pitches well, the Orioles’ bullpen should be able to hold a lead or keep the game tied.
Situational Factors and Trends Pointing to the Under
Beyond the pitching matchup and offensive struggles, several situational factors bolster the Under 9 argument:
- Friday’s Result: A 2-0 game, even with two delays, indicates the difficulty in scoring. This could set a tone for the rest of the series.
- Head-to-Head Trends: Looking at recent matchups, five of the last seven games between these two teams have gone under the total of 9 runs. This includes the 4-1 Orioles win on May 9, where Sugano faced the Angels.
- Home Field Advantage & Pitcher’s Park: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, while known for its picturesque scoreboard, can play as a pitcher’s park, especially with the deeper left field wall. This can suppress home run numbers and extra-base hits.
- Offensive Slumps: Both teams are entering this game with a relatively cold offense, particularly against the handedness of the opposing pitcher. The Angels are facing a righty who has already dominated them, and the Orioles struggle mightily against lefties.
- Early Season Adjustments: While it’s mid-June, teams are still making adjustments, and offensive consistency can be elusive, particularly for struggling lineups.
Evaluating Outcomes and the Under 9 Logic
Let’s consider the possible game outcomes and how they relate to the Under 9:
- Low-scoring pitcher’s duel: This is the most direct path to the Under. If Anderson finds his form and Sugano continues his impressive run, a 2-1, 3-2, or even another 2-0 game is highly probable.
- One team breaks out slightly, the other remains cold: Even if one team manages to score 4-5 runs, if the other team is held to 1-2, the total stays comfortably under 9. Given the Orioles’ struggles against lefties and the Angels’ overall offensive woes, this is a very plausible scenario.
- Bullpen struggles: While both bullpens have higher ERAs, in a low-scoring game where the starters go deep, the bullpen’s role is minimized to just a few innings. Closer Félix Bautista for the Orioles is a top-tier arm who can shut down an inning or two.
The key here is the combination of factors. You have a strong right-hander for Baltimore who has already stifled the Angels, facing an Angels lineup that struggles against righties. On the other side, you have a struggling left-hander for the Angels, but an Orioles lineup that historically struggles even more against left-handers. The statistical evidence from their head-to-head matchups and their respective team hitting splits against the relevant handedness of pitching strongly support a defensive battle.
The Calculated Smart Decision: Under 9
The lines are set at Under 9 at -105, offering decent value for a wager that appears to have strong fundamental backing. This isn’t just a gut feeling; it’s a conclusion drawn from analyzing pitching matchups, recent offensive performance, and head-to-head trends. The Angels’ difficulty in scoring runs, especially against a pitcher they’ve already seen success against, combined with the Orioles’ well-documented struggles against left-handed pitching, creates a strong foundation for a low-scoring contest.
The arrival of Christian Moore, while exciting for Angels fans, is unlikely to immediately transform their offense to a level that busts the Under 9, especially as he finds his footing in the big leagues.
In conclusion, for Saturday’s Angels-Orioles showdown, the smart money is on the Under 9. Expect a tight, hard-fought game where pitching dominates and runs are at a premium. This isn’t a flashy bet, but it’s a shrewd one, backed by the numbers and the current form of both clubs.
