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Date: Sunday, July 21, 2024
Time: 2:35 p.m. ET
Arena: Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX
As the Baltimore Orioles gear up to face the Texas Rangers in Arlington, baseball fans are in for an exciting showdown. This game isn’t just another regular-season match; it’s a chance for the Orioles to secure a three-game sweep against the Rangers. Let’s see what makes this game intriguing, breaking down the key players, and analyzing why under 8.5 total runs is a smart pick for this matchup.
The Orioles: Riding High on Momentum
Baltimore’s resurgence at the plate since the All-Star break has been nothing short of spectacular. After scoring nine runs on Friday and another eight on Saturday, the Orioles’ offense looks unstoppable. This offensive surge is a stark contrast to their performance in the seven games leading into the break, where they struggled to put runs on the board, going 2-5 and scoring fewer than three runs in each loss.
Key Players to Watch:
- Jordan Westburg: After a tough stretch, Westburg found his form with a three-hit game on Saturday, including a home run. His resurgence adds depth to Baltimore’s lineup.
- Cedric Mullins and Ryan O’Hearn: Both players have been critical in the Orioles’ offensive outburst, with each hitting home runs in Saturday’s win.
Baltimore has been consistent, racking up 23 hits and taking 10 walks in the first two games of this series. Their ability to get on base and drive in runs has been pivotal in their recent success. The Orioles boast an impressive .257 team batting average, demonstrating their ability to hit consistently.
The Rangers: Searching for Answers
The Texas Rangers, on the other hand, are trying to find their footing. After a strong end to the first half, they’ve stumbled, falling six games behind the first-place Houston Astros in the AL West. The Rangers have struck out a combined 23 times over the past two games, highlighting their recent struggles at the plate.
Key Players to Watch:
- Leody Taveras and Nathaniel Lowe: These two have been the bright spots for the Rangers, each collecting two hits in the series so far. However, the overall team performance has been lacking.
Texas’s pitching staff has also faced challenges, especially with injuries sidelining key players like Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom. This has put additional pressure on their remaining pitchers to step up.
The Pitching Duel
Dean Kremer (Orioles):
- ERA: 4.23
- WHIP: 1.35
- Kremer’s performance has been a mixed bag. Since returning from a right triceps strain, he’s had outings where he’s been both brilliant and mediocre. In his most recent start against the Yankees, he allowed two runs on four hits over 4 2/3 innings.
Nathan Eovaldi (Rangers):
- ERA: 3.54
- WHIP: 1.19
- Eovaldi has been more consistent but faces the daunting task of shutting down a red-hot Orioles lineup. His previous outings have shown his ability to strike out batters and keep the game under control.
Top 5 MLB Prediction Models
- PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm):
- Total runs prediction: 8 runs
- ZiPS (Szymborski Projection System):
- Total runs prediction: 7.6 runs
- Davenport Translations:
- Total runs prediction: 7.4 runs
- Steamer:
- Total runs prediction: 6.5 runs
- FanGraphs:
- Total runs prediction: 8.3 runs
Why Under 8.5 Runs is a Smart Pick
Several factors suggest that this game might see fewer than 8.5 total runs:
- Pitching Matchup: Both Kremer and Eovaldi have the potential to control the game. Kremer has shown flashes of brilliance, and Eovaldi’s consistency could keep the Orioles’ bats in check.
- Injuries and Depth: The Rangers are dealing with injuries to key pitchers, which has affected their overall performance. However, this also means they might lean heavily on Eovaldi to deliver a strong outing, potentially leading to a low-scoring affair.
- Recent Trends: While the Orioles have been hitting well, their explosive scoring in the first two games of the series could regress slightly, especially if Eovaldi is on his game. Similarly, the Rangers’ struggles at the plate might continue against Kremer.
- Pythagorean Theorem and SOS: Applying the Pythagorean theorem, which estimates a team’s performance based on runs scored and allowed, the Orioles come out slightly ahead. However, considering the Rangers’ tougher schedule recently (high SOS), this could level the playing field, pointing towards a closely contested game with fewer runs.
Final Thoughts
While the Orioles have shown they can score in bunches, the combination of strong starting pitching and the Rangers’ recent challenges at the plate suggests a lower-scoring game. Dean Kremer’s ability to bounce back and Nathan Eovaldi’s consistency could keep the run totals down, making the under 8.5 total runs a smart pick.
This game promises to be an exciting contest, with both teams having plenty to prove. All signs point towards a tight, low-scoring affair in Arlington.
So, sit back, enjoy the game, and let’s see if the under 8.5 total runs prediction holds true!
PICK: under 8.5 total runs WIN
