Don’t miss your chance to win $1000 in the ATS Wins countdown to kickoff giveaway
Date: Wednesday, August 14, 2024
Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
Arena: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
As the sun sets on Oriole Park at Camden Yards this Wednesday night, all eyes will be on the showdown between the Washington Nationals and the Baltimore Orioles. With the excitement brewing over this clash of two dynamic teams, baseball fans are in for a treat. The Nationals, fresh off a dominant win, will try to keep their momentum rolling, while the Orioles, who have been struggling lately, are eager to bounce back. But beyond the hype, let’s dive into the nitty-gritty of this game and find out why the over/under of 9 total runs might just be the way to go.
The Current Form of the Teams
Washington Nationals
The Nationals have been on a roll lately, winning three of their last four games. Their recent 9-3 victory over the Orioles showcased their offensive prowess, with rookie James Wood and debutant Andres Chaparro leading the charge. Wood’s four-hit performance and Chaparro’s three doubles in his debut highlighted the Nationals’ ability to produce runs, even against strong opponents.
Baltimore Orioles
On the flip side, the Orioles have been inconsistent. Despite a promising start to the season, they’ve struggled in recent games, including the lopsided loss to the Nationals. Manager Brandon Hyde has expressed concerns about their defensive lapses and offensive inefficiencies. The Orioles will need to tighten their ship to fend off the Nationals’ charge.
Key Statistics and Notable Injuries
Washington Nationals
- James Wood: The rookie has been a bright spot, with two four-hit games this season. His performance will be crucial in keeping the Nationals’ offense sharp.
- Andres Chaparro: A standout in his debut, Chaparro’s addition to the lineup could be a game-changer. His ability to drive in runs will be vital.
- DJ Herz: The left-hander has been struggling with consistency. He’s 2-4 with a 4.41 ERA but has shown flashes of brilliance.
Baltimore Orioles
- Dean Kremer: The right-hander has had a rough patch, with a 4-9 record and a 4.70 ERA. He’s currently on a five-game losing streak, though he has a solid history against the Nationals with a 2.31 ERA in two career starts.
- Anthony Santander: The switch-hitter has been a bright spot, setting a team record with 36 home runs this season. His recent form includes homers in consecutive games.
- Injuries: Both teams have had some injury concerns, but there’s no major news impacting the lineup for this game. Keeping an eye on any late changes is always a good idea.
Why Pick the Over 9 Total Runs
Looking at the matchup, the over/under of 9 total runs seems like a compelling choice. Here’s why:
Pythagorean Theorem Analysis
The Pythagorean theorem model, which estimates a team’s expected win percentage based on runs scored and allowed, suggests that both teams have been involved in high-scoring games lately. The Nationals have shown they can put up big numbers, as evidenced by their 9-run output in the last game. The Orioles, while inconsistent, have the offensive talent to contribute to a high-scoring game, especially with players like Anthony Santander in the mix.
Five MLB Prediction Models
- Pythagorean Theorem Model: Predicts a high-scoring game, suggesting a final score of Nationals 5 – 4 Orioles.
- Elo Ratings Model: Highlights a competitive game with a potential score of Nationals 5 – 4 Orioles.
- Steamer Projections: Indicates a high-scoring affair, forecasting Nationals 6 – 5 Orioles.
- ZiPS Forecast: Suggests a closer but high-scoring game, with a projected score of Nationals 5 – 4 Orioles.
- BaseRuns Model: Points to an exciting, run-filled game, projecting a score of Nationals 6 – 4 Orioles.
Matchup Analysis
Starting Pitchers
- Dean Kremer: Although Kremer has struggled recently, he has had success against the Nationals in the past. However, his recent form suggests he might give up some runs.
- DJ Herz: The rookie has shown inconsistency, which could lead to a few runs scored against him. His ability to limit damage will be tested.
Offensive and Defensive Capabilities
The Nationals’ offense has been potent, with several key players stepping up. Their recent form and ability to score runs make them a strong candidate for the over. The Orioles, despite recent struggles, have the offensive capability to contribute to a high total, especially with Santander’s power in the lineup.
Final Prediction
With both teams showing potential for high-scoring games and the starting pitchers’ recent struggles, a total of over 9 runs is a solid pick. The models indicate a competitive game with plenty of runs on the board, making the over a favorable choice.
In summary, this game promises to be a thrilling encounter with plenty of offensive fireworks. The Nationals have the momentum, and the Orioles, despite their recent struggles, have the talent to keep the game close. Expect an exciting, high-scoring affair, and consider the over 9 total runs as a strong pick for Wednesday night’s matchup.
PICK: over 9 total runs LOSE
