The New Orleans Pelicans face off against the San Antonio Spurs on March 15, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting matchup. With both teams dealing with injuries and roster adjustments, this game presents a great opportunity for bettors to capitalize on player prop bets. After analyzing recent performances, matchups, and betting markets, the single most promising player prop bet for this game is Trey Murphy III Over 20.5 Points (-112). Below, I’ll break down why this bet stands out based on player trends, team context, and market analysis.
Player Selection: Why Trey Murphy III?
Recent Performance
Trey Murphy III has been a key offensive contributor for the Pelicans, especially in Zion Williamson’s absence. Over the last few games, Murphy has shown consistent scoring ability, averaging 19 points per game in his last five outings. In the Pelicans’ most recent game against the Orlando Magic, Murphy scored 17 points while shooting efficiently from the field. With Williamson unavailable due to personal reasons, Murphy is expected to take on an even larger role offensively.
Murphy’s ability to stretch the floor as a sharpshooter makes him a dangerous weapon against teams with weaker perimeter defense, such as the Spurs. His recent performances demonstrate that he thrives when given more opportunities to score—something that will likely happen again tonight.
Historical Performance Against the Spurs
Looking at Murphy’s track record against San Antonio, he has performed well in previous matchups. In their last meeting earlier this season, Murphy scored 22 points while shooting over 50% from three-point range. The Spurs’ defensive weaknesses align perfectly with Murphy’s strengths as a scorer who can attack both inside and outside.
Home/Away Splits
Murphy has been consistent whether playing at home or on the road, but his splits show a slight uptick in scoring during away games this season. This is particularly relevant since tonight’s game is in San Antonio. His ability to perform well in hostile environments adds confidence to this prop bet.
Team Context: Why This Matchup Favors Trey Murphy III
Spurs’ Defensive Struggles
The San Antonio Spurs have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season. They rank 22nd in defensive rating (116.1 points allowed per game) and have struggled to contain opposing scorers all year long. In their last game against the Charlotte Hornets—a team ranked near the bottom of the league offensively—the Spurs allowed a staggering 145 points, highlighting their inability to defend effectively.
The absence of Victor Wembanyama (injury) further weakens their interior defense, leaving them vulnerable to versatile scorers like Murphy who can attack from multiple areas on the court. Additionally, San Antonio struggles to defend the three-point line, ranking 25th in opponent three-point percentage (37%). This is significant because Murphy thrives as a perimeter shooter and could exploit this weakness.
Pelicans’ Offensive Adjustments
With Zion Williamson out of the lineup, the Pelicans have shifted more offensive responsibilities to players like Trey Murphy III and Brandon Ingram. While Ingram remains the primary scorer, Murphy has consistently stepped up as a secondary option when Zion is unavailable. His ability to score efficiently without needing high usage makes him an ideal candidate for tonight’s matchup.
The Pelicans are slight favorites (-4.5), which suggests a competitive game script where starters are likely to play significant minutes. The high over/under total of 237.5 points indicates a fast-paced and high-scoring affair—conditions that favor offensive-minded players like Murphy.
Betting Market Analysis: Why This Prop Bet Offers Value
Odds and Implied Probability
Trey Murphy III’s points prop is set at 20.5 with odds of -112, implying roughly a 52% chance of hitting this mark according to sportsbooks. Given his recent performances and favorable matchup against San Antonio’s porous defense, this line appears conservative and offers strong value.
Murphy’s expanded role due to Zion Williamson’s absence increases his chances of exceeding this total. In games where Zion has been unavailable this season, Murphy has consistently scored above his season average—often eclipsing 20 points with ease.
Line Movements and Public Sentiment
Tracking line movements can provide insight into where sharp money is going, but as of now, there hasn’t been significant movement on Trey Murphy’s prop lines. This stability suggests that sportsbooks are confident in their initial assessment of his scoring potential tonight.
Public sentiment also leans toward an offensive showcase for New Orleans given San Antonio’s defensive struggles and the high projected total for this game (237.5). Bettors are likely targeting players who can capitalize on these conditions—Murphy being one of them.
Conclusion: Why Trey Murphy III Over 20.5 Points Is the Best Bet
After thoroughly analyzing player trends, team context, and betting markets for tonight’s Pelicans vs. Spurs matchup, Trey Murphy III Over 20.5 Points emerges as the single most promising player prop bet. Here’s why:
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Expanded Role: With Zion Williamson out, Murphy will see increased scoring opportunities.
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Favorable Matchup: The Spurs’ weak defense—especially against perimeter players—aligns perfectly with Murphy’s strengths.
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Game Script: A high-scoring affair benefits offensive-minded players like Murphy.
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Market Value: The odds (-112) offer good value given his recent performances and projected role tonight.
Confidence Level: 80%
This bet offers positive expected value (+EV) based on all available data and analysis.
If you’re looking for a strong player prop bet for tonight’s NBA action, Trey Murphy III Over 20.5 Points is your best option!
