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Date: Saturday, August 31, 2024
Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
Arena: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK
College football fans will witness an electrifying clash between the South Dakota State Jackrabbits and the Oklahoma State Cowboys. This matchup not only marks the beginning of the 2024 season but also pits two teams with high aspirations against each other. The Cowboys, coming off a solid 10-win season, are eager to prove themselves as contenders in the Big 12, while the Jackrabbits, the reigning FCS champions, aim to showcase their resilience despite significant roster changes. With both teams hungry for victory, this game promises to be a thrilling spectacle.
Team Analysis
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
The Jackrabbits enter this season with a remarkable 29-game winning streak, having gone 15-0 last year. However, they face a new challenge as they transition into 2024 with a revamped roster, returning only three starters on offense and five on defense from last season.
Key Players:
- Mark Gronowski (QB): The Walter Payton Award winner from last season, Gronowski threw for over 3,000 yards and 29 touchdowns. His leadership will be crucial as he guides a younger squad.
- Isaiah Davis (RB): A powerful runner who averaged 6.5 yards per carry last season, Davis will be pivotal in establishing the ground game.
Strengths:
The Jackrabbits are known for their dominant rushing attack, ranking third in the FCS last season with 227.7 rushing yards per game. Their defense was equally impressive, finishing first in total defense, allowing just 257.2 yards per game.
Weaknesses:
With many new faces on the offensive line and receiving corps, there may be growing pains as Gronowski adjusts to his new targets. Additionally, the transition from a championship-winning team to a rebuilding phase could lead to inconsistencies.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Cowboys finished the 2023 season with a 10-4 record, capping it off with a victory in the Texas Bowl. They return nearly all their starters, which bodes well for continuity and performance.
Key Players:
- Ollie Gordon II (RB): The Doak Walker Award winner rushed for 1,732 yards and 21 touchdowns last season. His ability to dominate on the ground will be crucial for Oklahoma State’s offense.
- Collin Oliver (LB): A defensive leader with 22.5 career sacks, Oliver’s presence will be vital in containing South Dakota State’s rushing attack.
Strengths:
Oklahoma State boasts a balanced offensive attack, ranking 25th in passing offense and 67th in rushing offense last season. With a strong offensive line, they can effectively protect their quarterback and create lanes for Gordon.
Weaknesses:
Despite their offensive prowess, the Cowboys struggled defensively last season, allowing 441.8 yards per game. This vulnerability could be exploited by a capable Jackrabbits offense.
Head-to-Head Matchup
Offense vs. Defense:
- Oklahoma State’s Offense vs. South Dakota State’s Defense: The Cowboys will look to leverage their passing game, but they must be wary of South Dakota State’s stingy defense, which excels at limiting big plays. Expect Oklahoma State to utilize a balanced attack, mixing runs from Gordon with strategic passes to keep the Jackrabbits guessing.
- South Dakota State’s Offense vs. Oklahoma State’s Defense: Gronowski will need to establish the run early to open up passing opportunities. If the Jackrabbits can effectively move the ball on the ground, it will put pressure on Oklahoma State’s defense, which has shown vulnerabilities against the run.
Special Teams:
Both teams have solid special teams units, which could play a pivotal role in field position battles. South Dakota State’s punt return game is particularly strong, ranking third in FCS last season, which could give them an edge in starting field position.
Key Factors to Watch
Injuries:
As of now, both teams appear to be relatively healthy heading into the season opener. However, any last-minute injuries could significantly impact the game.
Weather Conditions:
The forecast for Stillwater on game day is clear, which should favor both teams’ offensive strategies.
Coaching Strategies:
Mike Gundy’s experience will be crucial for Oklahoma State as they look to set the tone early. Conversely, Jimmy Rogers will need to be innovative in his play-calling to maximize the potential of his younger roster.
Prediction
Based on simulations from five successful NCAA football prediction models, the consensus leans towards Oklahoma State winning, but South Dakota State is expected to keep it close. Here are the predicted scores:
- Dimers Model: Oklahoma State 31, South Dakota State 25
- Pickswise Model: Oklahoma State 28, South Dakota State 24
- Tony’s Picks Model: Oklahoma State 27, South Dakota State 20
- Oddsshark Model: Oklahoma State 30, South Dakota State 22
- NDSU Model: Oklahoma State 29, South Dakota State 21
Reasoning: The models indicate that while Oklahoma State is favored, South Dakota State has a strong chance of covering the +10 spread. With a 58% probability of covering, the Jackrabbits have shown resilience and capability to compete against higher-caliber opponents. Their strong rushing attack and solid defense could keep them within striking distance, making them a compelling pick to cover the spread.
Conclusion
As the Cowboys and Jackrabbits clash in what promises to be an exhilarating season opener, the outcome remains uncertain. However, the analysis points to the Jackrabbits’ ability to keep the game competitive, especially with their strong running game and defensive prowess. With the odds favoring Oklahoma State, taking South Dakota State to cover the +10 spread is a wise choice, given their track record and the predictions from various models. This game is sure to set the tone for both teams as they embark on their respective journeys through the 2024 season.
PICK: South Dakota State to cover the +10 spread LOSE
