Baseball fans, get ready for an exciting matchup as the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Washington Nationals this Sunday, June 22, 2025, at 4:10 PM ET. This game is more than just a regular-season contest—it’s a clash between a powerhouse team aiming to keep their winning momentum and a young Nationals squad fighting to prove themselves. Let’s break down everything you need to know about this game, including key player performances, pitching matchups, recent trends, and why the total runs scored might stay under 9.5.
Why This Game Matters
The Dodgers come into this game with a strong 47-31 record, showcasing one of the best offenses in the league. They have been dominant at home, winning 29 of 43 games at Dodger Stadium. Meanwhile, the Nationals have struggled this season, holding a 32-45 record and facing challenges on the road with a 16-21 away record. Despite their struggles, the Nationals showed power in their last game, hitting five home runs to beat the Dodgers 7-3. This game will test if the Nationals can keep that momentum or if the Dodgers will bounce back with a strong performance.
Pitching Matchup: Ohtani vs. Soroka
The starting pitchers set the tone for this game. The Dodgers will send Shohei Ohtani to the mound. Ohtani is a unique talent, known for his ability to both pitch and hit at an elite level. However, his pitching this season has been limited due to recovery from Tommy John revision surgery. In his first start back, he pitched one inning with a 9.00 ERA, showing some rust but also flashes of his former dominance. Ohtani’s ability to pitch effectively will be critical for the Dodgers, especially since their bullpen has several key players sidelined with injuries.
On the Nationals’ side, Michael Soroka will start. Soroka has a 3-5 record with a 5.06 ERA this season. He has struggled with consistency and home runs allowed, but he has shown the ability to strike out batters and keep the ball on the ground. Soroka’s previous starts against the Dodgers have been solid, with a 2.79 ERA in two career starts. However, he is coming off a couple of losses and will need to bring his best to contain the Dodgers’ powerful lineup.
Offensive Power and Recent Form
The Dodgers’ offense is led by stars like Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Mookie Betts. Ohtani has already hit 25 home runs this season, and Freeman maintains a strong .328 batting average. However, in Saturday’s loss, the Dodgers’ top three hitters struggled, going just 1-for-12 with six strikeouts. This slump is something the Dodgers will want to correct quickly.
The Nationals have shown surprising power recently. James Wood leads the team with 21 home runs, and Nathaniel Lowe recently had a multi-homer game. CJ Abrams has also been hitting well, with a .354 average over his last 12 games. The Nationals’ ability to hit home runs could challenge the Dodgers’ pitching staff, but their overall inconsistency remains a concern.
Injury Impact
Injuries play a big role in this matchup. The Dodgers have several key pitchers on the injured list, including Tony Gonsolin, Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow. This limits their bullpen depth and puts more pressure on Ohtani to deliver quality innings. The Nationals also have injuries but fewer impact starters sidelined, which may give them a slight edge in pitching depth.
Head-to-Head and Historical Trends
Historically, the Dodgers have dominated at home, winning 48 of 75 games against the Nationals at Dodger Stadium. The Nationals have won 43 games overall against the Dodgers but only 30 on the road. The Dodgers average about 4.26 runs per game at home, while the Nationals average 3.28 runs on the road. This suggests a home-field advantage for the Dodgers and a slight edge in scoring ability.
Why I’m Confident in the Under 9.5 Total Runs Prediction
Many expect a high-scoring game given the offensive talents on both teams, but my analysis points to a total runs scored under 9.5. Here’s why:
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Pitching Quality and Control: Ohtani, despite his high ERA in limited innings, is a strong pitcher with the ability to limit runs when on his game. Soroka’s groundball tendencies and strikeout ability can also keep the Dodgers’ scoring in check.
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Recent Game Trends: The Dodgers have a strong record (18-4) in games where they do not allow home runs. Although the Nationals hit five home runs in their last win, this is an outlier rather than the norm.
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Injury Impact on Bullpen: The Dodgers’ bullpen is thin due to injuries, so they will likely manage the game carefully, focusing on limiting runs rather than giving up big innings.
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Model Predictions: Five successful prediction models support the under 9.5 runs total:
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Dimers MLB Model: Projects a 57% chance of the total runs staying under 9.5.
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Leans.ai Model: Suggests a moderate scoring game with a total near 9.9 runs but leans slightly under.
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ATS.io Model: Shows Dodgers averaging 5.3 runs and Nationals 3.3 runs, totaling around 8.6 runs.
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Sportsbook Wire Model: Indicates pitching matchups favor a controlled scoring environment.
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NBC Los Angeles Analysis: Notes the Dodgers’ ability to hold opponents under 5 runs in recent home games.
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These models, combined with the analysis of pitching and recent trends, make the under 9.5 runs a smart expectation.
Final Predicted Score
Based on the combined data and model outputs, here is the predicted final score:
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Los Angeles Dodgers: 5 runs
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Washington Nationals: 3 runs
This score reflects the Dodgers’ home advantage, pitching strength, and offensive firepower balanced against the Nationals’ power hitting and resilience.
What This Means for Fans and Viewers
If you’re watching this game, expect a competitive but controlled matchup. The Dodgers will look to assert their dominance at home and get Shohei Ohtani back on track as a pitcher. The Nationals will try to keep the game close by leveraging their recent power surge and hoping Soroka can contain the Dodgers’ lineup.
The game’s pace might be steady with fewer big innings than some expect, making every run valuable. Pitchers will focus on limiting mistakes, and defenses will play a key role in keeping the score low.
Summary
Sunday’s Dodgers vs. Nationals game promises to be a fascinating contest between a top-tier team and an underdog with potential. The Dodgers enter as favorites due to their home record, stronger pitching, and offensive depth. The Nationals have shown flashes of power but face challenges with consistency and pitching depth.
The pitching matchup between Ohtani and Soroka will be pivotal, with Ohtani’s health and effectiveness closely watched. The Dodgers’ bullpen injuries add intrigue, but their overall team strength should prevail.
Most importantly, the total runs scored are likely to stay under 9.5, supported by multiple predictive models and recent trends. This suggests a game where pitching and defense will be just as important as hitting.
Enjoy the game, and keep an eye on how these factors play out in what should be a memorable MLB Sunday afternoon at Dodger Stadium!
