On October 18, 2024, the Anaheim Ducks (2-1-0) head to Denver, CO, to face the struggling Colorado Avalanche (0-4-0) at Ball Arena. The game comes with intriguing odds, as the Ducks are road underdogs with a moneyline of +197, while the Avalanche are home favorites at -244. The spread is set at 1.5, and the total goal line is positioned at 6.5. With both teams coming off recent games just the night before, fatigue could play a role, particularly for the Avalanche, who are desperate for their first win of the season. This analysis will break down the game using five top NHL prediction models and compare them to a unique prediction based on advanced metrics such as the Pythagorean theorem and strength of schedule. We’ll also account for player injuries and trends to come up with the best possible pick for this matchup.
Key Team Stats and Injuries
Before diving into the prediction models, let’s examine the current team situations and recent form.
Anaheim Ducks:
- Record: 2-1-0
- Last Game: 5-4 OT win over Utah Hockey Club (October 17, 2024)
- Key Injuries: Isac Lundestrom (C), Jackson LaCombe (D)
- Starting Goaltender: Lukas Dostal
The Ducks come into this game riding high after an overtime victory against Utah Hockey Club. While the team showed resilience, defensive lapses were apparent, particularly in giving up four goals. However, the Ducks’ offensive line, led by standout Pavel Mintyukov and Leo Carlsson, has been potent.
Colorado Avalanche:
- Record: 0-4-0
- Last Game: 5-3 loss to Boston Bruins (October 17, 2024)
- Key Injuries: Miles Wood (LW), Devon Toews (D), Jonathan Drouin (LW)
- Starting Goaltender: Alexandar Georgiev
The Avalanche are in freefall after four straight losses, conceding a concerning 17 goals in just four games. Despite high-caliber players like Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar contributing offensively, their defense has been porous, and goaltender Alexandar Georgiev has struggled to find form.
Breakdown of Prediction Models
To predict the outcome of this game, we’ll use the following top NHL prediction models, along with BetQL and SportsLine:
- MoneyPuck: Uses advanced statistics like expected goals (xG), team strength, and individual player performance. Their model has shown success in closely predicting high-variance NHL games.
- FiveThirtyEight: This model incorporates a blend of Elo ratings and recent team performance to provide win probabilities and score predictions.
- Daily Faceoff: Focuses on player line combinations and the impact of injuries, especially in the context of team matchups.
- Hockey-Reference: Employs historical team data, factoring in trends, standings, and head-to-head records.
- Action Network: Leverages betting market data, including line movements and consensus betting percentages, in combination with hockey analytics.
BetQL and SportsLine both utilize a combination of statistical models, recent form, and betting market trends. These platforms provide comprehensive predictions for the final score, moneyline, and spread.
Model-Based Predictions
- MoneyPuck Prediction: Colorado Avalanche 4, Anaheim Ducks 3. The model expects the Avalanche to break their losing streak, citing an offensive surge despite defensive issues. The game is projected to be close, with a lean toward the Over on the 6.5 goal total.
- FiveThirtyEight Prediction: Colorado Avalanche win with 58% probability. Final score prediction: Avalanche 3, Ducks 2. The model expects Colorado’s superior roster talent to win out, even though their form is concerning.
- Daily Faceoff Prediction: Anaheim Ducks 4, Colorado Avalanche 2. Daily Faceoff believes Anaheim’s momentum and Colorado’s defensive issues will result in a Ducks win, with a clear Over on the goal total.
- Hockey-Reference Prediction: Colorado Avalanche 5, Anaheim Ducks 4 (OT). A high-scoring affair is expected, with the Avalanche eking out a narrow victory in overtime. Georgiev is predicted to face significant pressure.
- Action Network Prediction: Colorado Avalanche 3, Anaheim Ducks 3 (OT) – game goes to a shootout. The model expects a tight game, possibly going to a shootout, with both teams showing offensive promise.
BetQL: Predicts a Colorado Avalanche win with a final score of 4-2, suggesting that the team will finally put together a solid defensive performance.
SportsLine: Leans toward Colorado winning 3-2, with the total landing under the 6.5 goal mark.
My Prediction Using the Pythagorean Theorem and Strength of Schedule
Based on the Pythagorean theorem, which factors in a team’s actual goals for and against to predict expected wins, Colorado’s early season performance has been an outlier. Their goal differential (-10) versus Anaheim’s (+3) should indicate that Anaheim has the better chance of success. However, Colorado has faced a stronger schedule in their losses, going up against top-tier teams like Boston and Tampa Bay. Conversely, Anaheim’s schedule has been more forgiving, contributing to their 2-1 record.
When adjusting for strength of schedule and accounting for key injuries, Colorado’s missing defenseman Devon Toews could be a major problem. Meanwhile, Anaheim’s Isac Lundestrom will hurt their center depth but is not as critical.
Final prediction: Anaheim Ducks 4, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT). The Ducks’ offense, paired with Colorado’s struggling defense, should give them a slight edge. Lukas Dostal’s recent form also provides more confidence than Alexandar Georgiev’s inconsistency.
Best Bet and Final Thoughts
After averaging the model predictions and comparing them with my analysis, the most likely outcomes suggest:
- Final Score: Anaheim Ducks 4, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
- Moneyline Pick: Anaheim Ducks +197 (underdog)
- Spread Pick: Ducks +1.5
- Total Goals: Over 6.5
The Ducks offer significant value on the moneyline as an underdog, especially considering Colorado’s recent defensive struggles and Anaheim’s offensive form. Taking Anaheim on the spread at +1.5 feels like a safe bet, as the game is expected to be close. Finally, with both teams showing leaky defenses, betting on the Over for total goals looks favorable.
