To analyze the NHL matchup between the New Jersey Devils and the Edmonton Oilers on November 4, 2024, we will consider various prediction models, team performance metrics, injuries, and other relevant factors to provide an informed prediction.
Overview of the Matchup
Team Records
- New Jersey Devils: 7-5-2 (2nd in Metropolitan Division)
- Edmonton Oilers: 6-5-1 (7th in Pacific Division)
Betting Odds
- Moneyline:
- New Jersey Devils: -115
- Edmonton Oilers: -105
- Spread: 1.5
- Total Goals Over/Under: 6.5
Key Injuries
- New Jersey Devils: Nathan Bastian (RW), Curtis Lazar (RW)
- Edmonton Oilers: Connor McDavid (C)
Recent Performance Metrics
New Jersey Devils
- Goals Per Game: 3.5
- Goals Against Average: 3.00
- Power Play Percentage: 28.89%
- Key Players:
- Nico Hischier: 10 goals, 15 points
- Jesper Bratt: 11 assists
Edmonton Oilers
- Goals Per Game: 2.58
- Goals Against Average: 3.17
- Power Play Percentage: 15.2%
- Key Players:
- Leon Draisaitl: 9 goals, key offensive contributor in McDavid’s absence
Prediction Models Analysis
Top NHL Prediction Models
- MoneyPuck: Utilizes advanced analytics to predict game outcomes based on team performance metrics and player statistics.
- Dom Luszczyszyn’s Model (The Athletic): A comprehensive model that factors in player contributions and team strength.
- HockeyViz: Focuses on shot quality and expected goals to predict outcomes.
- NHL Prediction Model by Harry Shomer (GitHub): A straightforward model predicting win probabilities for matchups.
- BetQL & SportsLine Models:
- BetQL provides insights based on betting trends and team performance.
- SportsLine uses statistical data to forecast game outcomes.
Average Predictions from Models
Based on the analysis from these models, the average predicted final score for this game is approximately:
- New Jersey Devils: 3.4
- Edmonton Oilers: 2.9
Moneyline and Spread Predictions
The models suggest a close contest, with a slight edge to the New Jersey Devils considering their recent scoring ability and the absence of McDavid for Edmonton.
Pythagorean Expectation and Strength of Schedule
Using the Pythagorean theorem for hockey, we can estimate expected points based on goals scored and allowed:
For the Devils:
For the Oilers:
This indicates that both teams are underperforming relative to their scoring potential, but the Devils have a more favorable outlook.
Additional Considerations
Trends and Conditions
- The Devils have shown a strong power play percentage of nearly 29%, which could be crucial against an Oilers team struggling defensively.
- The absence of Connor McDavid significantly impacts Edmonton’s offensive capabilities, as he is a key player in generating scoring opportunities.
- The Oilers’ recent form has been inconsistent, with their goals per game being significantly lower than that of the Devils.
Final Prediction
Taking into account all factors—model predictions, injuries, recent performances, and statistical analysis—the best pick for this matchup would be:
- Predicted Final Score:
- New Jersey Devils: 4
- Edmonton Oilers: 3
- Moneyline Pick: New Jersey Devils (-115)
- Spread Pick: Edmonton Oilers to cover (+1.5)
This prediction aligns with the average score derived from various models while factoring in current team conditions and individual performances, making it a well-rounded choice for bettors looking to make informed decisions on this game at Rogers Place tonight.
