The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets are set for a pivotal Game 4 showdown tonight, with the Nuggets looking to extend their 2-1 series lead at home. After a 113-104 victory in Game 3, Denver has regained control, exposing OKC’s struggles on the road. With the Thunder desperate to avoid a 3-1 deficit, all eyes are on whether Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can rally his team, or if Nikola Jokić and the Nuggets will deliver another dominant performance.
Game Overview
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Date: May 11, 2025
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Venue: Ball Arena, Denver
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Series: Nuggets lead 2-1
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Spread: Nuggets +6.5 (Consensus Pick)
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Total: 227.5 (Lean Over)
Key Storylines
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Jokić vs. Chet Holmgren – The MVP’s elite passing and scoring have overwhelmed OKC’s defense. Can Holmgren slow him down?
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SGA’s Must-Win Moment – Gilgeous-Alexander dropped 34 in Game 2, but Denver’s double-teams limited him to just 18 in Game 3. Will he bounce back?
Top 5 AI Betting Model Predictions (Estimated Averages)
| Model | Predicted Score (OKC-DEN) | Spread Pick | Total Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetQL | 112-118 (DEN +6) | DEN +6.5 | Over 227.5 |
| ESPN BPI | 110-116 (DEN +6) | DEN +6.5 | Under 227.5 |
| SportsLine | 114-117 (DEN +3) | DEN +6.5 | Over 227.5 |
| Oddsshark | 111-119 (DEN +8) | DEN +6.5 | Over 227.5 |
| TeamRankings | 113-117 (DEN +4) | DEN +6.5 | Under 227.5 |
Average AI Prediction:
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OKC 112 – DEN 117
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Spread Consensus: Nuggets +6.5 (Strong Lean, 5/5 models favor DEN)
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Total Consensus: Slight Over Lean (3/5 models favor Over 227.5)
Our Enhanced Prediction Model
We incorporate:
Pythagorean Win Expectation (Accounts for point differential)
Strength of Schedule (SOS) Adjusted Ratings
Injury Impact (No major new injuries, Topic & Holmes already out)
Trends & Recent News (Nuggets have home-court momentum, Thunder struggled in Game 3)
Key Factors:
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Pace & Total Trends: Last 3 meetings averaged 229 PPG (Over 2-1 in series).
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Defensive Adjustments: Thunder’s defense has slipped in Denver (allowed 117+ in both road games).
Our Predicted Score:
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OKC 110 – DEN 119
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Spread Pick: Nuggets +6.5 (Cover, DEN by 9)
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Total Pick: Over 227.5 (229 projected)
Final Consensus Pick (AI Models + Our Model)
| Source | Predicted Score | Spread Pick | Total Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI Average | 112-117 (DEN +5) | DEN +6.5 | Over 227.5 |
| Our Model | 110-119 (DEN +9) | DEN +6.5 | Over 227.5 |
| Final Consensus | OKC 111 – DEN 118 | DEN +6.5 | Over 227.5 |
Best Bets for Game 4:
Spread: Denver Nuggets +6.5 (Strong Play, 6/6 models agree)
Total: Over 227.5 (4/6 models lean Over, recent trends support it)
Rationale:
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Nuggets have been dominant at home, and OKC’s defense has struggled in Denver.
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The total has gone over in two of three games this series, with both teams playing faster in Denver.
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No major injury changes, so expect Jokic & Murray to continue controlling the pace.
Pick:
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Take the Denver Nuggets +6.5 points.
