NFL Postseason QB EPA Rankings: Brock Purdy No. 1, Joe Burrow Soaring

The four quarterbacks heading into the AFC and NFC championship games will collectively play at historic levels this weekend. It was the first time since 2007 that all four starting quarterbacks had participated in a conference championship weekend and that particular postseason his postseason passer rating was above his 100.0.

That might be a reasonable assumption, given that players like Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow have qualified for the Super Bowl two seasons in a row. But it might not be so much for Jalen Hurts and Brock Purdy, who are newcomers to his game of NFC titles.

But all the names of the 2007 groups should be familiar.

• Tom Brady: 141.4
• Brett Favre: 137.6
• Eli Manning: 123.2
• Philip Rivers: 115.7

Known commodity or not, the Chiefs, Bengals, Eagles, and 49ers should have a high level of confidence in their quarterbacks with their journey to Super Bowl LVII at stake.

I am reviewing my quarterback prospects. This time, I’ll focus on the passers’ recent results to determine how well each one did or didn’t do well by the end of the week. All via TruMedia.

• EPA per dropback (EPA/DB in the diagram below)
• Offensive total EPA per play (EPA/PLAY)
• Passer Rating (PASS RTG)
• % complete (COMP%)
• Time to Throw (TTT)
• EPA at Blitz (EPA/BLITZ)

The difference between the two EPA percentages shows how much offensive success or struggle depends on the quarterback and the overall offense.EPA per dropback helps explain a quarterback’s passing ability When It scrambles instead of using only the passer rating.

The rankings for Weeks 14-18 are among all quarterbacks (30 overall) who qualified for the passer rating during that period. The postseason ranking is among all passer rating-eligible quarterbacks (14 overall) for the period.

NFC Championship QB

For those just starting to pay attention, the 49ers started Jimmy Garoppolo in last season’s NFC Championship Game. San Francisco then turned over his starting job to Tralance in 2022, with Lance suffering a season-ending ankle injury after just two games.After returning to Garoppolo, the Niners lost he He suffered a leg injury and had to rely on Purdy, the final pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.

The 49ers are currently 7-0 with Purdy as the starter and may have found a future at quarterback…again.

Garoppolo’s postseason numbers heading into last year’s NFC title fight were anything but confident.

• EPA per dropback: -0.23
• Offensive Total EPA Per Play: -0.37
• Passer Rating: 63.0
• Completion rate: 61.4
• EPA Blitz: -0.28

Despite last week’s game against Dallas showing the first real signs of a struggling Iowa State player, Purdy’s case was a whole different story. Indeed, the Cowboys have the best defense in the league. have one of The same could not be said for the Seahawks unit in the NFC Wildcard round. Still, Purdy’s numbers dropped dramatically during his two games in the postseason.

The big difference between the two games was Purdy’s slow time. Purdy averaged 3.49 seconds on the ball against Seattle compared to 2.80 seconds against Dallas. The Eagles’ defense has allowed the quarterback to average 2.75 seconds a regular pitch in his season, and last week’s divisional giants Daniel He sacked Jones his fifth.

The Eagles give Purdy a tough test in Philadelphia. But Purdy has overcome all the challenges so far.

The injury appeared to benefit from a leave of absence during the bye week to allow his injured right shoulder to heal.

The Hearts produced two passer rating outputs below 70.0 in their last two regular season starts: 64.6 against the Bears in Week 15 (the game in which Hearts was injured) and the Giants in Week 18. was 65.1 against Hearts has looked like his MVP contender in the past 14 games as he beat New York in his round of the division.

But Philadelphia’s overall success isn’t all that slow considering how well the Eagles have run football. So there is a big difference between Hearts’ EPA per dropback and Offensive’s total EPA per play. Hurts’ success helps the ground attack, even though he’s not running the ball.

One clear number comes with Hearts’ EPA percentage as the team blitzks into the postseason. However, the Blitz’s sample size against the Giants was so small that it could have been fooled. The Eagles had 268 yards and he had two touchdowns in the win.

What I really like about Hearts is how quickly he put the ball down last week. He was the passer with the least pressure of his four quarterbacks left this postseason, and he was the third-least-pressured of the 14 quarterbacks who played in the postseason. It’s passer.

AFC Championship QB

Ankle injury? What about ankle injuries?

Mahomes is unrestricted in practice this week and all signs point to him playing against the Bengals. Mahomes looked battered in the second half against the Jaguars, but in his last two quarters he recorded his rating of 110.7 passers and pushed Kansas City to his AFC title in his game.

Chiefs quarterbacks led the league in EPA per dropback during the regular season (0.29). His rate nearly halved in the final five weeks of the regular season, but during that period he ranked second among all quarterbacks, with only Purdy topping. do you know Despite his ankle injury, his rate bounced back to the league-leading mark against the Jaguars.

Notably, Mahomes’ EPA rate against Blitz was the highest last week. His rate (1.11) against the Bengals in Week 13 was his second-best singles-his-game rate against the Blitz in the entire season, but the Chiefs still lost that game. Given the ankle issues, we have to wonder how well he will perform in this week’s Blitz.

Mahomes did not perform well in last season’s AFC Championship Game against the Bengals. He produced -0.11 EPA overall per dropback and -0.61 on Blitz.

The Bengals won every game they played in Weeks 14-18. However, Burrow wasn’t quite in points during that stretch, posting a -1.87 EPA rating against the Blitz in Week 16 with the Patriots. That number played a big role in his ugly blitz rate during that period.

Since then, Burrow has performed well against the Blitz with odds over 0.50 in each of his last three games.

A big factor behind Burrow’s success is his quick release. His offensive line was a shell a few weeks ago when starters Jonah Williams, Rael Collins and Alex Kappa were sidelined with injuries, and that didn’t affect Burrow at all against the Bills last week.

Burrow could argue he had his best regular season game against the Chiefs in Week 13. Burrow produced a passer rate of 126.6 and an EPA dropback rate of 0.48. These were both his second-best singles in 2022 and his game percentage.

In last season’s AFC Championship game against the Chiefs, Burrow only increased his 86.5 passer rating and -0.18 EPA rating against the Blitz. He needs to perform better on Sunday to qualify for his second Super Bowl in Cincinnati.

(Top photo: Brian M. Bennett/Getty Images)