NFL Playoff Props Analysis: Taking Over Trevor Lawrence, Isaiah Pacheco & More

A narrow postseason field leads to a more robust analysis. But we don’t want to overthink things. Remember, in general, about two-thirds of offensive and defensive results are determined by offense.

So, in general, take the points granted by defense and move them to two-thirds of the points earned by attack. Of course, there are exceptions for extreme cases. For the rest of the team, the Niners vs running backs are more of a Niners stat than an opponent stat. However, defenses that sway the outcome are rare. Still, defensive matchups are more important, albeit less predictable, than offensive stats.

Starting with QB, let’s take a look at some of our recommendations for the week. Here’s how teams are ranked by fantasy points allowed per game, including the postseason:

QB (PPG allowed)

point: Trevor Lawrence Clearly play of the week. His passing yards prop is him at 249.5 yards and his TD passing prop (1.5) is minus 125 yards. The Chiefs allow 221 passing yards per game, but he has 1.94 passing TDs per game. Passing Lawrence and this Jaguar Is his offense above average?Yes. So it’s hard to see Lawrence not getting over 250 yards on multiple TD passes.

QBs to avoid Joe Burrow, he may be missing three starting offensive linemen but has the second-highest passing yards prop with 275.5 yards. The Bills allow 202 passing yards per game and only 1.2 passing TDs per game. Burrow, of course, is a top QB and a tough matchup on paper. But his offensive line was a question mark before the injury, so even with decent weather forecast for the game, Barrow is expected to struggle against the Bills passing his rush. will be

RB (PPR PPG available)

• Niners 16.3
• Cowboys 17.9
• bill 20.6
• Bengals 20.7
• Giants 21.3
• Eagles 22.2
• Chiefs 22.7
• Jaguars 23.3

point: Isaiah Pacheco His prop is set at 53.5 rushing yards for walkers and is expected to play a much better game than expected. The Jaguars give up 108 rushing yards per game. Patrick Mahomes is in the playoffs, but it’s hard to imagine Pacheco not getting his 80% of his RB rushing totals. He’s averaging his 70.3 yards per game (four total touchdowns) over the past nine games, with 53.5 yards he’s surpassed eight times (88.9%).

RB to avoid Tony PollardHis prop is now 46.5 rushing yards. He has hit overs in three of his last six games, and his all-time record is his 13-5. However, the way an opponent performs against the Niners is as much a function of his defense as the Niners rushing his RB on the opponent. They are rare exceptions to the rule. Plus, the expected game script and Ezekiel Elliot’s touch (his market share against Pollard is Football Crime) is at work here against Pollard.

WR (PPR PPG available)

• Eagles 30.1,
• Bengals 30.2,
• jaguar 31.4,
• giant 32.3,
• Bill 35,
• Chiefs 35.1,
• 49ers 37.4,
• Cowboys 37.4

point: The Eagles funnel runs. So are the Jaguars. But the amazing team here are the Cowboys. Additionally, Dallas is thrashing in the secondary. Dallas has a reputation as a top defense, but he is prone to attack by wide receivers. Dallas really thumped in the slot against the Bucks before safe Jayron Kurth suffered a knee injury. Brandon Aiyuk had nine slots against the Seahawks with a snap where he tied with Jauan Jennings. Aiyuk said he didn’t get hit once, and Jennings said he got hit only three times (one catch, 8 yards). Don’t overthink this — Deebo Samuel (O/U 54.5 receiving yards) is the matchup here. Count on Niners to optimize his use. This is also a very good matchup numerically. Seedy rum As the Niners showed last week, they are vulnerable to big passing plays. However, Ram is projected very aggressively with his 77.5 receiving yards.

TE (PPR PPG available)

• cowboys 9,
• Bill 9.2
• 49ers 10,
• eagles 11.2,
• Chiefs 12.4,
• Bengals 12.6,
• Giants 14.3,
• Jaguars 14.6.

point: You have a great matchup of talent in both offense and defense weaknesses Travis Kelce When dallas goudart (O/U 47.5 receiving yards, almost 30 yards lower than Kelse). Playing Gedelt this week as both the Cowboys and 49ers are more prone in a one-off format that wants to lean into playing players they think will drop out and his matchup is likely to be relatively bad next week Worth doing. Earn WR points.

K (PPG allowed)

• 49ers 4.9,
• Eagles 6.4,
• Bill 6.5,
• Chiefs 7.4,
• jaguar 7.6,
• cowboys 8.6,
• Bengals 8.9.
• Giants 9.1.

point: Weather in January is always top priority, but no indoor games. The Eagles and Bills are both favourites, facing stingy teams in the red zone and force field goals.so play Tyler Bass Also Jake Elliott It’s a game here.If you want to pick a team that is likely to lose, for one purpose the best of the terrible choices is Riley Pattersonbut you can also expect Doug Pederson to get it on 4 down and put the hat on 2 down.

D/ST (PPG available)

• Chiefs 0.9,
• Eagles 3.2,
• 49ers 3.3,
• Bill 3.4,
• jaguar 3.6,
• cowboys 5.2,
• Bengals 5.3,
• Giants 5.4.

point: That chief number is sick. The next best Lions allowed almost three times as many. He typically has few sacks or turnovers compared to Patrick Mahomes, plus he risks going negative in points allowed. Obviously, giving some points to his D/ST for his opponent is a winning indicator. Here the four favorites (as in the case of the opponent’s kick his point) are the strongest. In a format (my league’s format with 94 participants) that needs to pick losers and save winners for future weeks, bengals When cowboysThe theory here is that Josh Allen was sacked seven times last week, prone to big mistakes, and Brock Purdy, despite his prominence, is a rookie QB on defense with a top pass rush. But if you have a field pick, bill is the way to go. Nyheim not only has a returner, but should get a ton of sacks given the Bengals line woes (Barrow has had him sacked four times in his 36-pass play against Baltimore). rice field).

(Top photo: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports)