NFL Playoff Predictions: Our Picks in the Division Round

A soccer match is actually played between four teams. So two attacks and two defenses. In recent seasons, however, explosive crimes have dominated the coverage. Each playoff his team’s chances are usually discussed in terms of offensive achievements, but defense needs him to be as dominant as the 49ers to define the team’s identity.

The Bills and Bengals have explosive scoring prowess and won wildcards as big favorites last week. However, both teams failed to cover the spread after struggling to contain their opponents who started backup quarterbacks.

The rest of the playoff teams have been evenly matched throughout the year, especially on offense. Of the 8 teams left in the postseason, 7 finished the regular season in the top 10 for offensive efficiency, while only 5 had top 10 defensive strength. These stronger defenses should give them an edge in this weekend’s divisional round matchup.

Last week’s record: 2-3-1

always eastern.

game on saturday

No. 4 Jacksonville Jaguars, No. 1 Kansas City, 4:30 p.m. NBC

Line: Kansas City -9 | Total: 52.5

The Jaguars have done their best when the bare minimum was expected. After starting with a 3-7 record that put Jacksonville well out of the playoff picture, the team won six of their final seven games in the regular season, and in the wild card round against the Chargers, Trevor Lawrence scored a four-game win. threw the pick. It looks like they filled the Jags with a 27-0 deficit in the first half. But the Jaguars rallied for one of the biggest comebacks in playoff history.

By that logic, the underdog Jaguars could put on another show in a game they weren’t expected to win, facing top-seeded Kansas City, who had the best regular-season offense in the NFL. Kansas City are so good that the team put up big numbers game after game and won many games they didn’t cover. In their last nine home games they went 1-7 against the spread. is -1. It could also be the result of the market giving away too many points for home field advantage. I have.

The Kansas City defense ranks 20th in pass defense according to Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric. It’s a high-risk, high-reward scenario that often ends the game with a quarterback sack or gives up a big play in the second half. Time passed, playing from behind, that’s when Lawrence and company shined. Pick: Jaguar +9

No. 6 Giants of the No. 1 Philadelphia Eagles, 8:15 p.m. Fox

Lines: Eagles -7.5 | Total: 48

Throughout the season, the Giants had a successful return to trailing games, recording four 4th-quarter comebacks in the regular season. But Daniel Jones may have given the best performance of the wild card weekend (301 passing yards and 78 rushing yards) as the Giants scored four touchdowns and played almost out front in the Vikings upset. Mm. The lead owes the team a defensive starter back from injury that limited the Vikings’ big plays.

The defense needs to reinforce its efforts against the Eagles and Jalen Hurts. The Eagles have beaten the Giants in both meetings of the regular season, but those games are probably less predictable. In Week 18 he lost 22-16.

Despite Jones’ dual-threat ability and the reintroduction of Seyquon Barkley’s running back in both contract seasons, the Giants enjoyed a loser’s schedule this season. The team went 2-4-1 for him against a top-10 defense. All of those games were within reach, with all but one being decided by less than eight points.

Philadelphia ranks 6th in defensive DVOA and 1st in passing DVOA, making the Eagles a particularly dangerous pass rusher. They are his NFL sack leaders (70), with Hurson Reddick’s 16 and his three other players recording his double-digit totals.

The line opened at 7 and was soon made 7.5 by the Eagles’ sharp action. The Giants have won most of the money since then, but the line is still not back to 7. By kickoff, this spread could widen, not narrow. Pick: Eagles -7.5

game on sunday

No. 3 Cincinnati Bengals vs. No. 2 Buffalo Bills, 3 p.m. CBS

Lines: Invoice -5 | Total: 48

The Bills have to play emotionally in this rematch of a Week 17 game that was canceled after Dumar Hamlin went into cardiac arrest during the contest. Hamlin will reportedly be on the Bills’ sideline for the first time, and it could be a huge morale boost. Such is the case if the opportunistic throw of ignoring the easy short pickup that controls the clock.

The Bengals locked up their opponents in the second half thanks to an in-game defensive adjustment by coordinator Lou Anarmo that limits big plays long enough for the Bengals offense to do damage (And in some cases, defensive linemen forced turnovers leading to touchdowns).

Cincinnati may need help picking up points. The offensive line’s injury woes continued last week, with Jonah Williams going down with a knee injury in the wild card win over the Ravens. Williams and another starter, Alex Kappa, who injured his ankle in Week 18, were absent from Wednesday’s practice as Joe Barrow adapted to the pressure. He averages 2.49 seconds to get the ball out. This is his second fastest in the league behind Tom Brady.

Buffalo’s defense hasn’t been as strong in the second half of the season, especially since they lost Von Miller to a knee injury in November, and has been forced to blitz perhaps more than they’d like. A receiver combo of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill got 113 yards on 10 catches. If Skyler Thompson can do it, imagine what Barrow can do with Tyler Boyd, Tea Higgins, and Jamar Chase widening the field. Pick: Bengals +5

No. 5 Dallas Cowboys, No. 2 San Francisco 49ers 6:30 p.m. Fox

Lines: 49ers -3.5 | Total: 46

The Dallas Cowboys won the road playoffs for the first time in 30 years last week, setting up a return to the rivalry of the 1990s. However, both franchises have had some stylistic updates.

Brock Purdy isn’t Steve Young and didn’t have to be. The 49ers are on his 11th straight win, seven of them with rookie backup he Purdy at center. From tight end George Kittle to running backs Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, his array of options are fast and hard to tackle, gaining yards after catches.

However, this is not an offensive bonanza for either team. After both teams utterly destroyed their opponents in the wildcard round, the market made San Francisco his 3.5-point favorite. This is the tightest spread of the weekend and a total of 46 points is its lowest. 49ers’ Nick Bosa and Cowboys’ Micah Parsons are two of his top contenders for Defensive Player of the Year, so those quarterbacks will have to come under more pressure throughout the season.

Dak Prescott is the better of the two quarterbacks, but he needs his running backs Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott to keep the 49ers’ defense honest.San Francisco passes more than rushes. defense, going 2-4 in games allowing 99+ yards on the ground. Assuming the 49ers receiver he can incapacitate CeeDee Lamb, the Cowboys have to rely on Dalton Schultz and Prescott to avoid a disaster turnover. There’s a lot of work to be done, and that’s why Dallas is scoring points. Pick: Cowboy +3.5

How betting lines work

A quick primer for those unfamiliar with the betting line: Favorites are listed next to a negative number representing the number of points they must win to cover the spread. For example, Buccaneers -2.5 means that Tampa Bay must beat the Seahawks by at least 3 points before the supporters can win the bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score. This indicates whether the team’s total score in the game is above or below a preselected number of points.

Betting market data comes from Action Network’s public betting data and lines come from Unabated’s real-time odds tracker.