NFL playoff picture at Week 17: What’s at stake for Dolphins, Giants, Commanders and more

NFL playoff picture at Week 17: What’s at stake for Dolphins, Giants, Commanders and more

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Week 17 kicks off with half of the wild-card spots and both No. 1 seeds still up for grabs, and our projections show how each result may shift the NFL playoff picture as the week progresses. Here’s where the full NFL playoff picture stands following Dallas’ 27-13 win at Tennessee on Thursday night.

Listed odds to make the playoffs, secure the No. 1 seed and win the Super Bowl are all via The Athletic’s NFL betting model, created by Austin Mock. The projected playoff chances have been adjusted to account for possible Week 18 rest scenarios, Derek Carr’s benching and injuries to quarterbacks Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Ryan Tannehill and Tua Tagovailoa.

AFC Playoff Picture

SEED TEAM RECORD WEEK 17 RESULT

y-1

12-3

at CIN

y-2

12-3

vs. DEN

x-3

11-4

vs. BUF

4

7-8

at HOU

x-5

10-5

vs. PIT

x-6

9-6

vs. LAR

7

8-7

at NE

x — Clinched playoff berth | y — Clinched division title

Buffalo Bills

The Bills play the Bengals on Monday night in the most-anticipated matchup of Week 17. A Buffalo win and a Chiefs loss to the Broncos would clinch the No. 1 seed for the Bills with a week to go, but Kansas City is a 12.5-point home favorite this weekend.

Remaining schedule: at Bengals, vs. Patriots

Odds: To make playoffs: 100.0 percent | To earn bye: 55.5 percent | To win Super Bowl: 12.5 percent

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Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs face an easy remaining schedule as they chase the Bills for the No. 1 seed. After playing the Broncos, who just fired head coach Nathaniel Hackett, the Chiefs close out the regular season with a Raiders team that has benched quarterback Derek Carr.

Remaining schedule: vs. Broncos, at Raiders

Odds: To make playoffs: 100.0 percent | To earn bye: 36.5 percent | To win Super Bowl: 13.8 percent

Cincinnati Bengals

Our model gives the Bengals a 72.7 percent chance to win the AFC North. Here’s how they can do so in Week 17:

  • Bengals beat Bills and Ravens lose or tie against Steelers
  • Bengals tie Bills and Ravens lose to Steelers

Cincinnati still has an outside shot at the No. 1 seed, but losing to Buffalo on Monday would extinguish that hope.

Remaining schedule: vs. Bills, vs. Ravens

Odds: To make playoffs: 100.0 percent | To earn bye: 8.1 percent | To win Super Bowl: 7.1 percent

Jacksonville Jaguars

The winner of Week 18’s Titans-Jaguars game in Jacksonville will win the AFC South. But what if the game ends in a tie? Because the Titans lost Thursday night and Jacksonville won the first head-to-head meeting with Tennessee, the Jaguars can win the division with a tie in Week 18 even if they lose to the Texans this weekend.

Remaining schedule: at Texans, vs. Titans

Odds: To make playoffs: 79.0 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 3.7 percent

Baltimore Ravens

A Ravens win in Week 17 will ensure Baltimore and Cincinnati play for the AFC North title when the two teams meet in their regular season finale.

Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers, at Bengals

Odds: To make playoffs: 100.0 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 3.6 percent

Los Angeles Chargers

After clinching their playoff berth in Week 16, the Chargers are playing only for wild-card seeding at this point. They hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Dolphins, and they currently have a better conference record (7-4) than the Ravens (6-4) and every team in wild-card contention that’s yet to clinch.

If the Chargers win one of their final two games, they can finish no worse than the No. 6 seed. If they lose out, they can’t overtake the 10-win Ravens for the No. 5 seed.

Remaining schedule: vs. Rams, at Broncos

Odds: To make playoffs: 100.0 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 4.6 percent

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Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins will attempt to clinch a playoff berth this weekend without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who entered concussion protocol earlier this week. Here’s how Miami can secure a spot in the postseason for the first time since 2016:

  • Dolphins beat Patriots and Jets lose or tie at Seattle
  • Dolphins tie Patriots, Jets lose at Seattle and Steelers lose or tie at Baltimore

Remaining schedule: at Patriots, vs. Jets

Odds: To make playoffs: 68.4 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 2.7 percent

In the hunt

New England Patriots

Losing to the Dolphins this week would eliminate New England from playoff contention. Winning out — which would be easier if Buffalo rests starters in its regular season finale — would ensure New England makes the postseason.

The Patriots can also make the playoffs by beating the Dolphins and losing to the Bills, but that would require help, including the Jets winning at Miami in Week 18.

Remaining schedule: vs. Dolphins, at Bills

Odds: To make playoffs: 9.6 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 0.3 percent

New York Jets

The Jets’ path to the playoffs is pretty simple: They need to win out and see the Patriots lose one more game. Getting quarterback Mike White back should make that more doable.

Remaining schedule: at Seattle, at Miami

Odds: To make playoffs: 18.9 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 1.2 percent

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Tennessee Titans

After losing to the Cowboys on Thursday night, the Titans must beat the Jaguars in Week 18 to make the postseason.

Remaining schedule: at Jaguars

Odds: To make playoffs: 22.2 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 0.7 percent

Pittsburgh Steelers

In addition to Pittsburgh winning out, the Steelers’ narrow path to the postseason requires the Dolphins to lose out, the Jets to lose to the Seahawks in Week 17 and the Patriots to lose or tie in Buffalo in Week 18.

Remaining schedule: at Ravens, vs. Browns

Odds: To make playoffs: 1.9 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 0.0 percent

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Las Vegas Raiders

Though technically still in contention for a playoff spot, the Raiders signaled they’re giving up on this season when they benched Derek Carr. They’ll start Jarrett Stidham against the 49ers this weekend.

Remaining schedule: vs. 49ers, vs. Chiefs

Odds: To make playoffs: 0.0 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 0.0 percent

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Eliminated

  • Browns (6-9)
  • Colts (4-10-1)
  • Broncos (4-11)
  • Texans (2-12-1)

NFC Playoff Picture

SEED

  

TEAM

  

RECORD

  

WEEK 17 RESULT

  

x-1

13-2

vs. NO

y-2

12-3

W vs. NYG

y-3

11-4

W vs. WAS

4

7-8

vs. CAR

x-5

12-4

W at TEN

6

8-6-1

vs. IND

7

7-7-1

vs. CLE

x — Clinched playoff berth | y — Clinched division title

Philadelphia Eagles

A win against the Saints this weekend would clinch the NFC East and the No. 1 seed for the Eagles. Philadelphia would also clinch the division title with a tie against New Orleans, but in that situation, the Eagles could only secure the No. 1 seed this weekend if the Vikings lose or tie at Green Bay.

Remaining schedule: vs. Saints, vs. Giants

Odds: To make playoffs: 100.0 percent | To earn bye: 91.9 percent | To win Super Bowl: 15.0 percent

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings’ narrow path to the No. 1 seed requires them to win out while the Eagles lose out. Our model considers that very unlikely. But can the Vikings hold off the 49ers for the No. 2 seed?

Remaining schedule: at Packers, at Bears

Odds: To make playoffs: 100.0 percent | To earn bye: 2.9 percent | To win Super Bowl: 8.6 percent

San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco securing the No. 1 seed requires the 49ers to win out, the Eagles to lose out and the Vikings to drop one of their final two games. That’s unlikely, but the 49ers have one of the league’s easiest remaining schedules. After playing the Jarrett Stidham-led Raiders this week, they’ll face the Cardinals in what might be Kliff Kingsbury’s last game as Arizona’s head coach.

Remaining schedule: at Raiders, vs. Cardinals

Odds: To make playoffs: 100.0 percent | To earn bye: 3.6 percent | To win Super Bowl: 8.2 percent

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs can clinch the NFC South with a win against the Panthers this weekend. If the Bucs lose, they’ll cede the head-to-head tiebreaker to Carolina, dropping Tampa’s playoff odds to a bit under 50 percent.

Remaining schedule: vs. Panthers, at Falcons

Odds: To make playoffs: 80.8 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 3.0 percent

Dallas Cowboys

Beating the Titans on Thursday keeps alive the Cowboys’ slim chances at winning the NFC East and securing the conference’s No. 1 seed — at least until the Eagles play the Saints.

Remaining schedule: at Commanders

Odds: To make playoffs: 100.0 percent | To earn bye: 1.6 percent | To win Super Bowl: 5.9 percent

New York Giants

The Giants will clinch a spot in the postseason and lock up the No. 6 seed with a win in either of their two remaining games, and they might face an Eagles team resting starters in Week 18.

Even without winning this week, the Giants can get into the playoffs with various combinations of losses and ties by the Commanders, Seahawks, Lions and Packers.

Remaining schedule: vs. Colts, at Eagles

Odds: To make playoffs: 86.9 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 3.4 percent

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Washington Commanders

Washington, which is returning to Carson Wentz quarterback, can clinch a playoff spot this weekend with a win against Cleveland and losses by the Seahawks and Lions and a loss or tie by the Packers.

Remaining schedule: vs. Browns, vs. Cowboys

Odds: To make playoffs: 29.2 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 1.1 percent

In the hunt

Seattle Seahawks

Multiple paths to the playoffs still exist for Seattle. The Seahawks don’t even need to win out, though that would certainly help. Losing to the Jets this week would drop the Seahawks’ playoff odds to 7.7 percent, according to our model.

Remaining schedule: vs. Jets, vs. Rams

Odds: To make playoffs: 22.6 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 1.1 percent

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Detroit Lions

Detroit holds head-to-head tiebreakers over both the Giants and Commanders, but the Lions’ Week 4 loss to the Seahawks looms large. If Detroit loses to Green Bay in Week 18, evening the head-to-head series, the next tiebreaker would be division record: The Lions are currently 3-1 against the division, while the Packers 2-2.

Remaining schedule: vs. Bears, at Packers

Odds: To make playoffs: 32.9 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 1.1 percent

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NFL playoff scenarios for Week 17: How could the picture shift with every result?

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay’s simplest path to the playoffs is to win out while the Commanders lose one game. The Packers would still have 2.9 percent chance of making the postseason even if they lost to the Vikings this week, but they cannot make the playoffs without beating the Lions in Week 18.

Remaining schedule: vs. Vikings, vs. Lions

Odds: To make playoffs: 27.7 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 1.1 percent

Carolina Panthers

After beating the Bucs earlier this season, the Panthers are in control of their fate. Win out, and they’re NFC South champions.

Remaining schedule: at Tampa Bay, at New Orleans

Odds: To make playoffs: 17.8 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 0.6 percent

New Orleans Saints

The Saints will be NFC South champions if they win out and the Bucs drop both of their remaining games. Of course, that’s easier said than done when the Saints’ next game is a trip to Philadelphia.

Remaining schedule: at Philadelphia, vs. Carolina

Odds: To make playoffs: 2.1 percent | To earn bye: 0.0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 0.1 percent

(Photo: Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)



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