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Rub your back and try not to break your arm. Yeah 4-2 was good. However, they needed to remain undefeated in the playoffs to regain the regular season.
The betting line is particularly tough this week. I think the Eagles numbers (backed by 7.5) are too low. The Eagles were 8-5 against the spread despite being favored every week before Jalen Hurts was injured. They then lost their last four ATS games, with Hearts putting out a twist in the finale.
They play at home and their offensive line and running game with Hearts and Miles Sanders is no joke. The Eagles rushed for at least 130 yards in his 10 games and will do so on Saturday. Our other best bet is for the Cowboys to cover his spread against the 49ers. Again, their offensive line is a big reason. Enough small talk…
last week: 4 to 2 for the spread and 2 to 1 for the best bet.
Regular season: 127-139-5 ATS; 26-27-3 at best.
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked once a pick is made. click here for live odds.
Deeper
With eight teams remaining in the NFL playoffs, which team is most likely to win them all?
The Chiefs are home after a week off — Andy Reed is 27-4 after a bye — looking smart. Not to mention that Patrick Mahomes made the Jaguars look ridiculous in his 27-17 win in November, and he passed 26 of 35 for 331 yards before passing the ball in the 4th quarter. Completed 4 touchdowns.
So… I tried to find arguments to the contrary, like everyone did in my debate class 30 years ago (don’t get old). The Jaguars are playing well with the House his money and the defense is playing better than it did then. Trevor Lawrence has taken his game to the next level… no no no no no no.
Disagreeable.
Last week, I picked the Chiefs to beat the 49ers in the Super Bowl, and this should be a relatively easy first step in that direction. The Jaguars gave 40 and 34 points to the Lions and Cowboys, two good offenses they faced in December, respectively. And let’s be honest, last week’s comeback win may have been about the Chargers.
The Jaguars have really struggled to cover tight ends and Travis Kelce is the best in the industry. Jacksonville ranked 32nd in pass defense DVOA versus tight ends, leading the league during the regular season with 58 It enabled first downs or touchdown receptions and the third-highest yards/receptions (13.1) for a TE target.
I think they were focused on that in practice this week, but it’s not fun playing chess with Reid. He has a lot of other things planned and he has other hot hands he can rely on, Kadarius Toney is the X-factor and Jerick McKinnon says he’ll be red from week 13 to week 18. Inside the zone he recorded 6 receiving TD off plays, leading all players. NFL.)
Jaguars also tend to be slow to start, which is a bad idea for Arrowhead. Mahomes won the Division in his rounds where he went 4-0 with no interceptions, and in the playoffs when he had a 7-point advantage or more against the spread he was 3-2 (overall he won 4). 1 loss). Make it 4-2.
Pick: Chiefs -8.5
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have to be in another AFC Championship game. (Jay Biggerstaff/USA Today)
As athletic‘s Dan Duggan said it would be difficult to look for clues in the matchups between the two of these teams this season. The Giants rested everyone in the season finale, losing him 48–22 to the Eagles without Leonard Williams, Landon Collins, Jarad Davis, Adley Jackson, and Xavier McKinney.
The Giants are well coached, Daniel Jones is playing with a lot of confidence, Saquon Barkley is one of the top five most inspiring players in the playoffs, and Dexter Lawrence took over the game last week. , pushed the pocket up in the face of the Minnesota QB. Kirk Cousins.
I’m such a bully. I’ll take the Eagles Hurts look healthy and Lane Johnson’s tackle is back for a still-underrated offense. Recorded and slept for the entire season. He averaged 5.53 yards before contact per carry in that game, the second-highest for the season, surpassed only by his Week 8 performance against the Steelers, while Sanders had just nine carries.
Meanwhile, the Eagles defense had two shut down cornerbacks, which was overkill against the New York receivers and locked down runs late in the season. This spread should be higher, but everyone was crazy about Bryan Daball and Danny Dimes, they were great, but the Giants made him into the playoffs a year ahead of schedule and the reason is We’ll find out on Sunday.
Pick: Eagles -7.5
Deeper
NFL Playoff Experts’ Choice, Odds: Predictions for Every Game in the Division Round
I still don’t understand why this game is not on neutral sites. I picked the Bengals for that season’s finale matchup, and Joe Burrow was shredding the Bills’ defense until the game was called off following Dummer Hamlin’s cardiac arrest (Hamlin’s continued recovery). Hat tip to improvement). Burrow is very comfortable against Bills’ sub-heavy defense. The Bengals ranked him third in success rate against five or more DBs during the regular season (46.4%). Burrow is patient because that success has come despite the fact that Cincinnati ranked him No. 23 in his explosive play percentage against five or more DBs (10.5%).
Now, considering the Bengals are injured on the offensive line, I’m not sure he can hold out. They had already lost Rael Collins and Alex Kappa before Jonah Williams took on the Ravens last week.Neither Kappa nor Williams practiced on Thursday.
The Bengals narrowly beat the Ravens last week and their offense stalled, but I think that’s a credit to the Ravens. am.
I think the Bengals defense is more balanced than the Bills and includes Josh Allen. The Bills can’t beat a team with a winning record for many points this season. A big reason for that is Allen’s generosity. Allen has gone too far, this season he led the NFL with 19 turnovers, and last week he recorded three more turnovers, and Skyler nearly lost his game in the playoffs to Thompson. I was.
Allen is great, watch out, if he deals on Sunday, we’ll take L and soldiers. He has the lowest off-target rate (14.6%) on throws with more than air yards, and ranks 7th in the EPA/DB on those plays. The Bengals’ defense ranks him 11th in completion percentage (58.5%) and 6th in his EPA per opponent’s dropback against throws of air yards over 15 yards. finished the season.
But we’re going with Burrow and the Bengals defense. What are your points?
Pick: Bengals +5.5
Last week we flew close to the sun and picked Dak Prescott as our featured photo to match the Cowboys’ best bet. I had enough to deal with that I had to give. It was the 10th best QB playoff performance since 2010 in the EPA per dropback. It was Prescott’s sixth-best performance of his career (regular season or playoffs) according to EPA/DB.
The 49ers are confident after beating the Cowboys this time last year, but one of their obvious weaknesses seems to be at cornerback. It’s hard to see Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard doing much against the 49ers’ run defense, so they have to.
One thing to mention about Prescott’s performance last week is that, numerically, the 49ers’ Brock Purdy was better. Purdy recorded his fifth-best QB playoff performance by EPA/DB since 2010.
One question worth considering (credit athletic(Aaron Rice): Is Purdy beefing up the 49ers offense or is Kyle Shanahan just attacking all cylinders?
The numbers point to the latter. Purdy finished his season as a regular with a completion percentage that was -2 better than expected. In the wildcard round, his CPOE was -0.5.
Deeper
Brock Purdy’s 49ers playoff debut was good, but not as QB stats suggested
He was the last pick in last year’s draft, so it’s still amazing considering Purdy’s good looks. And he especially shines in moving around in the pocket and developing his play. Including the playoffs, Purdy has made his 85 dropbacks this season, throwing over three seconds. Jimmy Garoppolo experienced 93 such dropbacks before his leg injury. Here’s how they stack up. (Note: All numbers/rankings in this memo include playoffs):
Purdy: 61.1% completion rate, 10.78 YPA, 10.78 air yards per attempt, 47.1% completion rate (4th), 40% first down rate, 7.7% sack rate.
Garoppolo: 51.3% completion rate, 7.27 YPA, 11.44 yards per attempt, 35.1% completion rate (24 days), 25.8% first down rate, 13.3% sack rate.
With the Cowboys’ huge offensive line holding their own against the 49ers’ pass rushers, this should be a close match. And the national stage is set for Micah Parsons-turned-superstar. Dallas played up to their opponents’ level all season, but the Cowboys won’t lose by at least a field goal on Sunday night. I think you’re in the perfect place for
Pick: Cowboys +4
— TruMedia’s research is courtesy of NFL Editor Aaron Reiss.
(Graphics: Sean Riley / athletic; Miles Sanders Photo: Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
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