NBA Playoffs Game 3: Knicks vs. Pistons – Who Takes Control of the Series?

The 2025 NBA Playoffs are heating up, and the first-round battle between the New York Knicks and Detroit Pistons is proving to be a gritty, hard-fought affair. With the series tied 1-1, Game 3 in Detroit becomes a pivotal swing game—will the Knicks regain momentum on the road, or can the Pistons defend home court and pull off an upset?

Series Recap: A Tale of Two Games

The opening games in New York delivered contrasting styles:

• Game 1 saw the Knicks dominate with physical defense and clutch shooting, securing a 123-112 win.

• Game 2 was a different story—the Pistons, led by a breakout performance from their role players, stole a 100-94 victory to even the series.

Now, the action shifts to Little Caesars Arena, where Detroit will look to feed off its home crowd. However, the Pistons face a major hurdle: Isaiah Stewart (questionable), robbing them of a critical defensive presence. Meanwhile, the Knicks are at full strength, with their deep rotation ready to exploit Detroit’s weakened lineup.

Key Matchups & X-Factors

1. Jalen Brunson vs. Cade Cunningham – Two elite guards will dictate the tempo. Brunson’s playoff experience gives him the edge, but Cunningham’s playmaking could keep Detroit in it.

2. Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Pistons’ Frontcourt – Towns could feast in the paint against a thin Pistons defense if Stewart sits.

3. Three-Point Battle – The Knicks shot poorly from deep in Game 2 (32%). If they regress to their season average (37%), Detroit’s defense will struggle to keep up.

Game 3 often decides playoff series momentum, and with Detroit’s injury woes, the Knicks are in a prime position to take control. Expect a physical, defensive battle with New York’s depth making the difference late.

Top AI Sports Betting Models’ Predictions

Average AI Prediction:

• Winner: Knicks (-1)

• Projected Score: Knicks 107.2 – Pistons 105.8 (Total: 213 Under)

My Custom Prediction (Pythagorean Theorem + Strength of Schedule + Adjustments)

A. Pythagorean Win Expectation

• Knicks:

  • Points For (PF) = 112.1 | Points Against (PA) = 108.3

  • Pythagorean Win % = PF^13.91 / (PF^13.91 + PA^13.91) ≈ 58.2%

• Pistons:

  • PF = 105.4 | PA = 112.8

  • Pythagorean Win % ≈ 38.1%

Edge: Knicks by ~3.5 points

B. Strength of Schedule (SOS)

• Knicks: Played a tougher schedule (Top 10 SOS)

• Pistons: Played a weaker schedule (Bottom 10 SOS)

Adjustment: Knicks +1.5 pts

C. Injuries & Trends

• Pistons Missing Jaden Ivey (Key Scorer) & Isaiah Stewart (Questionable – Defense/Rebounding)

  • Impact: Pistons lose ~4-6 pts in offensive efficiency

• Knicks at Full Strength

• Recent Trends: Knicks are 5-2 ATS last 7 games, Pistons 3-5 ATS last 8

Adjustment: Knicks +2 pts

Final Custom Prediction:

• Projected Score: Knicks 109 – Pistons 104 (Total: 213 Under)

• Pick: Knicks -1 (Lean Under 214.5)

Consensus Pick (Averaging AI Models + My Prediction)

Betting Recommendation:

Best Pick: New York Knicks -1 (Consensus & Injury Edge)
Total: Lean Under 214.5 (Defensive Playoff Game + Pistons Missing Key Scorers)

Key Factors:

• Knicks have better efficiency metrics.

• Pistons missing Ivey (18 PPG), Stewart’s defense questionable.

• Playoff trends favor tighter, lower-scoring games.

Pick

• Take the New York Knicks -1 point.