As the Oklahoma City Thunder, currently leading the Western Conference with a strong 36-8 record, prepare to face the Portland Trail Blazers at home, the stage is set for an intriguing matchup. Despite Portland’s recent win against the Charlotte Hornets, they face a significant challenge as 13.5-point underdogs against the high-powered Thunder offense. With key players missing from both rosters, including Nikola Topic, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, and Ajay Mitchell for the Thunder, and Taze Moore, Deandre Ayton, and Matisse Thybulle for the Trail Blazers, the focus shifts to individual performances that could sway the outcome. One player prop bet is particularly promising: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s points over 31.5. Here’s why this bet offers compelling value:
- Player: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
- Prop Type: Points Over 31.5
- Confidence Level: 80%
Analysis:
- Player Selection:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been consistently strong, averaging 32.0 points per game this season. He recently scored 31 points against the Dallas Mavericks.
- His historical performance against the Trail Blazers and recent form suggests that he will continue to score well.
- Team Context:
- The Thunder have a high-scoring offense, averaging 120.4 points over their last 10 games. This suggests a potential for a high-scoring game against the Trail Blazers.
- Despite Portland’s recent defensive improvements, they have struggled against the Thunder historically.
- Betting Market Analysis:
- The current odds for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to go over 31.5 points are -115, which offers a favorable implied probability given his recent performance.
- Public sentiment might lean towards the Thunder’s overall strength, but focusing on SGA’s performance provides a more specific and potentially undervalued bet.
- Player Availability:
- There is no indication that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will miss the game due to injury or rest.
This bet offers positive expected value (+EV) based on Gilgeous-Alexander’s consistent scoring and the Thunder’s offensive capabilities.
Pick: Take Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s points over 31.5.
