The 2025 NBA Finals have reached a critical juncture, with the Oklahoma City Thunder leading the Indiana Pacers 3-2 heading into Game 6. As the series shifts back to Indiana, the pressure is on the Pacers to extend their season, while the Thunder look to secure their first championship in franchise history.

For bettors, player props offer a compelling way to capitalize on individual matchups and trends. After analyzing recent performances, team dynamics, and betting market movement, one prop stands above the rest:

Best Player Prop Bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 Points (-110)

Why SGA’s Scoring Prop is the Top Play

1. Dominant Recent Form

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been unstoppable in this series, averaging 32.0 PPG over the last five games. He has cleared 31.5 points in three of those contests, including a 35-point explosion in Game 4. His ability to attack the rim, draw fouls (averaging 6.2 free throw attempts per game this series), and hit mid-range jumpers makes him a nightmare for Indiana’s defense.

2. Favorable Matchup Against Pacers’ Weak Backcourt Defense

The Pacers have struggled all postseason against elite guards, ranking 24th in backcourt defensive efficiency. SGA has torched Indiana this year:

Regular season: 33, 28, 37 points
Finals: 31 (Game 5), 35 (Game 4)

With Jarace Walker (out) weakening Indiana’s perimeter defense, SGA should have even more room to operate.

3. High-Pace Game Benefits Volume Scorers

Indiana plays at the fastest pace in the playoffs (101.2 possessions/game).
More possessions = more shots for OKC’s primary scorer.
SGA averages 33.2 PPG on the road in these playoffs, slightly higher than his home numbers.

4. Elimination Game = Heavy Star Usage

If the Pacers keep it close, expect SGA to play 40+ minutes.
If Tyrese Haliburton (questionable) is limited, OKC could get more transition opportunities.
The Thunder will ride their MVP candidate to close out the series.

Betting Market Confidence

The line opened at 30.5 and has been bet up to 31.5, indicating sharp action on the over.
SGA has hit this mark in 7 of his last 10 playoff games.
The implied probability (~52%) suggests slight value, given his recent consistency.

Potential Risks

Blowout Factor: If OKC builds a big lead, SGA’s minutes could dip in the 4th quarter.
Defensive Adjustments: Indiana might throw double-teams, though SGA has handled them well all season.

Final Verdict

Confidence Level: 70%

This is one of the strongest player prop spots of the Finals. SGA’s scoring consistency, the Pacers’ defensive vulnerabilities, and the high-stakes nature of Game 6 all point toward another 30+ point night.

Conclusion

For Game 6, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 Points is the best player prop bet on the board. His elite scoring ability, matchup advantages, and the playoff intensity make this a high-probability play.

SGA Score Prediction: SGA finishes with 34 points, clearing the over and leading OKC to a close win.

Pick

Take Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 Points